Still on the CBN cash swap policy and the gullible Nigeria public

By Gozie Irogboli

It is only a hypocrite that will see the truth and speak otherwise because of personal gain or primordial reasons. It is only a fool that will be deceived by the antics of these unscrupulous self-seeking politicians.
The din generated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) current cash swap policy is yet to settle even after extending the deadline for the exercise by ten days. The country is heated up as some politicians have strangely abandoned their electioneering campaign for advocacy apparently because they have nothing to campaign, having pegged their hopes of winning the election as heretofore on vote-buying which is now threatened by the CBN’s cash swap policy. And strangely too, is the fact that some of the youths who have refused to protest the misrule of the All Progressives Congress (APC) regime in the past eight years are being mobilized to unleash mayhem in the country ostensibly to protest against the paucity of cash in circulation.
And as expected, the CBN’s cash swap policy has attracted comments from many critics across the nation. In particular, I am intrigued by the comments of some of our respected economists, policy analysts and experts most of whom analyzed the situation from the standpoint of short-run economic growth. Our respected economists were mostly concerned about the temporary economic loss that will result from the exercise. Their concern however is germane but it is obvious that they are not looking at the bigger picture. I am not fixated about growth as no development economist should but about development. The GDP growth is not the only indicator of economic progress. The cash swap exercise may affect growth rate now just as it has also reduced inflation rate and the exchange rate but all are temporary unintended consequences of the policy.
We live in an underdeveloped economy. Thus, our concern should primarily be more on development and not on the growth for growth sake. Some argued that the timing of the policy is wrong. And I ask what time is the best time for the exercise? And some posited that the policy is politically motivated. Of course politics and economics are intertwined and it is difficult to divorce one from the other because they are correlated.
When we look at it holistically we will be able to see the bigger picture. Certainly, this is not the issue of growth or static equilibrium analysis. Any one conversant with the Nigerian political economic issues will know that our economic progress and development is inextricably tied to political stability and purposeful leadership that is required to optimally utilize our abundant human and natural resources for the good of all. And this type of leadership can only come through free, fair, transparent and credible election. Monetary inducement has compromised our system and processes, promoted violence, subverted the will of the people, promoted corruption, created distortions and leakages in the management of our resources and sabotaged the emergence of credible leadership that we crave for in the country.
Indeed, a peep into the annals of our checkered political-cum-economic history shows that aside from the issues of religion and ethnic sentiment, the singular most debilitating factor in our body politic is poor the electoral system bastardized by money politics which had made it impossible for the practice of true democracy to take root in the country. Nigeria seems to be trapped in a vortex of socio-political instability resulting from faulty electoral systems and processes that produce politicians whose consciences are cauterized by greed.
During elections the politicians use their ill-gotten wealth to perpetuate electoral malfeasance. When they come into power they spend the first one or two years trying to recoup whatever it is they had spent during the election. They give political appointments not on merit or qualification but to compensate their cronies or sponsors to make them recover their “investments” in their election. They do not care about the economy, the needs of the people, the constitution or even their campaign promises. They do not care about ideas or ethics of public service. Again in the final year of their tenure, they devote more time to stockpiling money for election rather than governance with the intention of buying the votes of the citizens whom they have intentionally pauperized. And the vicious circle continues. With the influence of money politics, our unconscionable politicians subvert the will of the people, create voters’ apathy, promote violence and then stymie the growth of political participation and civic responsibility.
Thus, some of us supporting the position of the Federal Government on the cash swap exercise are looking at the long-run effect on our Political Economy. Yes on the short run, we may lose income but we can accommodate that in order to harvest the long run benefit. We can trade off the temporal growth for our long term development and stability that a credible election will usher in, in our country. After all, Economics is the science of trade-offs.
So, it is easy to see why Mr. Godwin Emefiele, the CBN governor may be reluctant to inject more of the new notes into circulation because he knew exactly what happened to the first tranche that he released. The same politicians who collected the first tranche of the new notes pumped into circulation by the CBN in December through the collusion of the careless and dubious bank managers and stashed them away, waiting for the election day are still the ones blackmailing and intimidating Emefiele because they know he is a cool, levelheaded public officer with high sense of decorum and etiquette. Were it to be the boisterous Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, by now he would have audited the banks and make public the names of those that collected these funds and this needless noise about cash swap would have died down.
Yes, the currency redesign and cash swap policy is politically motivated and so is the whole hullabaloo surrounding it. How come those who never cared about the masses these past eight years suddenly turn around and become the advocate of the same masses they have pauperized? How come those who have cheered and celebrated Buhari’s failures and pledged to continue with his obnoxious legacies are now at daggers drawn with him? For eight months our university students were at home as a result of ASUU/Federal government dispute but there was no litigation from the governors and no visit to the president, no council of state meeting to resolve the dispute because our politicians have their children abroad. How come these governors-turned activists never bothered about the willful murder of protesting youth at Lekki Toll Gate in Lagos? How come these born-again governors never complained about fuel queues at the filling stations that have lasted for over twenty months now? How come they never cared about the mounting national debt? How come they are now mounting pressure on the Federal government to obey the Supreme Court order when there are many other court judgments that are flouted with impunity..? And the reason is obvious: the cash swap policy will affect their ability to rig the forthcoming election.
In another dimension, it would not be difficult to figure out from the cash swap imbroglio the fact that Nigeria is not yet ripe for the cashless policy thing otherwise the paucity of cash in circulation at present would have been the opportunity needed to make the cashless policy go full blast. So it is obvious that some of us who differed on the introduction of the policy of pegging deposit and withdrawal limit in the name of promoting cashless economy based our position on the fact we live in an economy with underdeveloped structures characterized with poor technology and inhibiting socio-cultural environment and not that the cashless economy is not desirable.
Clearly, Nigeria is at the threshold of history. This is the defining moment, the moment of truth to break free from bad governance and usher in a new dawn. The difficulties associated with the cash swap policy may be painful but it is necessary for it is temporal. After the election the issue of cash scarcity will naturally disappear. I earnestly hope Nigerians will make good use of this unique opportunity now that the president has demonstrated his willingness to conduct free, fair and credible election.
It is only a hypocrite that will see the truth and speak otherwise because of personal gain or primordial reasons. It is only a fool that will be deceived by the antics of these unscrupulous self-seeking politicians. It is only a fool that will willingly accept the fifty thousand Naira alleged budget by these unscrupulous politicians to pay each electorate for his vote and then suffer and lament for another eight years. It is only a lazy youth that will allow himself to be used by these do-or-die politicians to perpetrate violence and wanton destruction of public property in the name of protest.
Gozie Irogboli an economist, a novelist and a public policy analyst