What’s the future of Wagner Group in Africa?

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

The internal disagreements and possibly deep-seated dissatisfaction between Russia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Wagner Group leader over the ‘special military operation’ are aspects of the the geopolitical chess game. The unsuccessful military fight between MoD, the Kremlin and Wagner Group, at least, somehow ended without direct clashes, bloodshed or civilian casualties. But there were potential conditions to resort into something disastrous which officials have referred to as “armed mutiny”, a resemblance of the current political-military conflict in the Republic of Sudan. A short comparative analysis shows an element of commonality between Russia and Sudan, the fact that Kremlin signed a decree to absorb the private para-military group into the Ministry of Defense.
In the case of Sudan, it also revolves around infighting between two rival groups: Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) and a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces. After the overthrow of Omar al-Bashir, forces loyal to two generals are vying for control of power. Sudan has been run by the army, with coup leader General Abdel-Fattah Burhan who has share power with the paramilitary leader General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo. He has worked alongside the Sudanese army to help keep the military in power.
Until today, the ceasefires agreed on by SAF and RSF have never worked in Sudan. As a result of this fact, there are growing negative political sentiments, deepening social discontent and the situation is pushing out people as refugees in the neighboring countries. The background to the political-military violence was a disagreement over how RSF paramilitaries should be incorporated into the Sudanese army.
Wagner’s Yevgeny Prigozhin criticized Russian Defense Ministry formalization efforts on June 17. In its update, Prigozhin also claimed he attempted to submit a contract to formalize Wagner under the Defense Ministry. Obviously it implied that the Defense Ministry would confiscate weapons that volunteer units obtained outside of formal weapon deliveries and that Russian commanders with higher military education would replace Wagner’s combat-effective volunteer commanders. It indicated that Wagner forces to subordinate to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
That however, the short-lived military drama, some alternatively described as theatrical military spectacle was primarily due to deep-seated internal conflicts allegedly between Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, and Wagner founder and CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin over aspects of the ‘special military operation’ started since late February 2022. Perhaps, Prigozhin dreamed he could push Putin into making some changes within the top brass of the MoD which Wagner chief publicly berated for months. Putin’s addresses have eradicated that prospect, he works closely with the top defense management.

Achievements and Disagreements
Wagner has seemingly achieved a lot in Ukraine. For instance in May 2023, Putin congratulated them for distinguished part in the battle by awarding state decorations. Putin recognized the operation, on the authentic special report given by the Russian Defense Ministry on the completion of the operation to liberate Artyomovsk, (called Bakhmut in Ukraine). “In the Artyomovsk tactical direction, the assault teams of the Wagner private military company with the support of artillery and aviation of the southern battlegroup have completed the liberation of the city of Artyomovsk,” the defense ministry stated.
Artyomovsk is located in the north of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and it served as a major transportation hub for the Ukrainian army’s supplies in Donbass. Fierce fighting to liberate the city started on August 1, 2022. The battle for this city is one of the largest battles during the liberation of Donbass since 2014. Some 72,000 people lived in Artyomovsk before the battle started.
The developments were quite clear. Reports have, over these few months, indicated sharp disagreements between Ministry of Defense is headed by Sergey Shoigu and Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin over aspect of the troops assigned to Ukraine. But the last straw that broke the carmel’s back was Putin’s decree that instructed incorporating the paramilitary into the regular army. The decree, in strictest terms, requested the ministry to manage, monitor and oversee all aspects of Russian troops, including the paramilitary, at the war frontline in Ukraine.
In an interview in December 2018, Putin said, in regard to Wagner PMC’s operating in Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere, that “everyone should remain within the legal framework” and that if the Wagner group was violating the law, the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office “should provide a legal assessment”. But, according to Putin, if they did not violate Russian law, they had the right to work and promote their business interests abroad. The president also denied allegations that Prigozhin had been directing Wagner’s activities.
In September 2022 Prigozhin officially admitted to founding and managing “Wagner Group” which started as a battalion participating from May 2014 on the Russian side in the war in Donbass. Private military companies are still illegal in Russia, but with their heavy participation in the war in Ukraine they have been legitimized by being referred by the Ministry of Defense and Russian government with the umbrella term of “volunteer detachments”.
On 5 May 2023, Prigozhin blamed Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the Russian armed forces Gen. Valery Gerasimov for “tens of thousands” of Wagner casualties, saying “They came here as volunteers and are dying so you can sit like fat cats in your luxury offices.” Thereafter there had been series of unpleasant exchanges between the Kremlin, MoD and Wagner, this time to leading what the Russian officials and the political elite viewed as mutiny against the Russian government.

On 24 June 2023, Prigozhin was accused by the Russian government of organizing an armed uprising after he threatened to attack Russian forces in response to a claimed air strike on his paramilitary soldiers. Russian security forces accused the founder of the Wagner group of launching a coup attempt as he pledged a “march of justice” against the Russian army. Prigozhin posted a voice memo claiming that Wagner had left Ukraine and was advancing on the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. Senior Russian generals urged Wagner’s fighters to withdraw.
In the final analysis, Russia and Belarus presumably in a ‘deal’ agreed that Prigozhin moved to Belarus in order to ensure both personal safety and national security. As reported by both local and foreign media, decision was a follow-up to high-level negotiations. The terms appeared to include an amnesty for Wagner fighters who had participated in the insurrection, although it was not clear whether Prigozhin would still face punishment for his role in launching what was effectively the country’s first armed coup in decades.

Scope of Operations
Wagner, also known as PMC Wagner, is a private para-military organization, and has operated since 2014. It operates in support of Russia’s interest, receives necessary equipment from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and has used MoD installations for training. In fact several years ago, Erica Gaston, a senior policy adviser at the UN University Centre for Policy Research, noted that the Wagner Group is not ideologically driven, but rather a network of mercenaries “linked to the Russian security state”. Russia denies the connection and that officially the group does not exist.
But subsequently, the owner was established as Russian businessman Prigozhin – sometimes called ‘Putin’s chef’ because of his catering businesses that hosted dinners which Vladimir Putin attended with foreign dignitaries. As a paramilitary, it has represented Russia’s military operations abroad, including the Middle East.
In Africa’s direction, following the deployment of its contractors between 2017 and 2019, to Sudan, Madagascar, Libya, Central African Republic and Mozambique. The Wagner Group has offices in 20 African countries. By March 2021, Wagner PMCs were reportedly also deployed forces in Zimbabwe, Angola, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, and possibly the Democratic Republic of Congo and Burkina Faso.

United States and European Sanctions
Prigozhin was sanctioned by the United States in December 2016 for Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict, and by the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom in October 2020 for links to Wagner activities in Libya. In December 2021, the EU imposed sanctions for committing “serious human rights abuses, including torture and extra-judicial, summary or arbitrary executions and killings, or in destabilising activities in some of the countries they operate in, including Libya, Syria, Ukraine (Donbas) and the Central African Republic.”
On 24 February 2022, Canada, Australia, Japan, Switzerland and New Zealand had sanctioned the group. In addition, in late January 2023, the United States announced it would designate Wagner as a “significant transnational criminal organization”, enabling further tougher sanctions to be implemented against the group.
Kestér Kenn Klomegâh is an Int’l Affairs Analyst.