Tinubu’s N49.7trn budget

By Zayyad I. Muhammad

President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has presented a budget of N49.7 trillion (approximately $28 billion). This figure underscores a stark paradox: Nigeria is a country both “rich” and “poor”—abundant in crude oil and natural resources, yet struggling to translate this wealth into meaningful development.
With an estimated population of 234.9 million—making it the sixth most populous country in the world—a $28 billion budget is insufficient to address critical needs like food security, healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Notably, N4.91 trillion is allocated to defense and security, while N4.06 trillion, N2.48 trillion, and N3.52 trillion are earmarked for infrastructure, healthcare, and education, respectively.
Despite its large and predominantly youthful population, coupled with vast untapped natural resources, Nigeria must urgently improve its earnings to remain competitive in today’s challenging global economy. The Tinubu administration has made strides by removing petroleum subsidies and floating the naira. While these measures have increased revenue for both the federal government and subnational entities, they have also had severe repercussions: reduced purchasing power for citizens, continued depreciation of the naira, rising commodity prices due to the country’s import dependency, and spiraling inflation.
The key question remains: How can Nigeria build the resources needed to cater to its large population and effectively compete with major African economies?
On paper, Nigeria holds the title of Africa’s largest economy, yet in practice, it faces serious challenges. For instance, South Africa, Africa’s most industrialised economy, boasts a GDP of approximately $373 billion, followed closely by Egypt with $347 billion. By contrast, Nigeria’s GDP has fallen to $199.7 billion, ranking it fourth among African economies.Nigerian cuisine
To reverse this trend, Nigeria cannot rely solely on taxing its citizens or removing subsidies—short-term fixes that are ultimately unsustainable. Instead, policymakers must prioritise agriculture and human capital development. These two sectors alone hold the potential to generate billions of dollars and provide long-term, sustainable growth. While subsidy removal and currency floating may produce immediate gains, agriculture and human capital can continually fuel economic prosperity.
A collaborative and benchmarking approach is essential. Nigeria should study and adopt the models of successful agricultural economies such as China, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, the United States, Russia, Australia, Denmark, India, Canada, and France—all of which generate billions annually from agriculture. Take Indonesia, for example: it is one of the world’s leading producers of palm oil, rice, rubber, cocoa, and coffee. Agriculture plays a central role in Indonesia’s economy, and Nigeria has the potential to elevate its own agriculture sector to even greater heights.
Moreover, Nigeria’s human capital is one of the fastest-growing in the world. By harnessing its dynamic workforce both domestically and internationally, Nigeria can unlock significant economic value. For instance, in 2022 alone, Nigeria accounted for $21.9 billion in diaspora remittances, representing 64% of all remittances in West Africa.
The truth is, a budget of N49.7 trillion (approximately $28 billion) is merely a drop in the ocean for a nation of nearly 250 million people, spanning a landmass of approximately 923,768 square kilometers.
Nigeria must take bold and innovative steps to leverage its resources effectively. Strategic investments in agriculture and human capital development will not only boost national revenue but also secure Nigeria’s competitiveness on the global stage.

Zayyad I . Muhammad is a Public Affairs Analyst.