By Josh Mamman
For many years, the European Union (EU) has relied on the United States as its primary security and political partner. It is a vital relationship based on shared values, encompassing political dialogue, economic cooperation, and defense initiatives, including cooperation on counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and regional stability efforts like the support for Ukraine and joint strategies for Africa.
But today that transatlantic relationship faces a defining moment. As the U.S. contends with rising isolationism and growing skepticism toward global alliance, Europe is facing the reality of a more uncertain partner across the Atlantic. The U.S. is pursuing its own agenda, particularly visible in the Ukrainian crisis- often leaving European interests secondary.
Since the second President Donald Trump administration came to power in the U.S., a sense of insecurity has spread across much of Europe. On several occasions, Trump has expressed that he is not prepared in all situations to use military force to fulfil US obligations. According to a survey published at the end of March 2025 of more than 10,000 Europeans in nine countries, 55 percent now believe that there is a high risk of an armed conflict breaking out in the EU’s territory in the coming years.
Furthermore, 63 percent believe that the election of Trump makes the world less secure, and a majority – 51 percent- believe that he is an enemy of Europe. The course set by Trump, with its emphasis on weakening Europe and reinforcing American economic dominance has already been reflected in the recently concluded EU – U.S. trade agreement.
On August 21, 2025 the European Union and the United States unveiled their framework on an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade. The framework confirms the earlier announcement that a 15% duty will apply to most EU products imported to the US, while many of the U.S. products will enter the EU duty free. The EU will eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods, and apply ‘’preferential market access’’ to US seafood and agricultural goods.
Their joint statement indicates that the EU companies are expected to invest 60 billion Euros in US strategic sectors through 2028, and that the EU should increase its procurement of US military equipment. At the core of US foreign policy today is the protection of its national business interests, notably its defense industry. Washington’s strategy is clear: maximize arms sales to European partners while leaving them to resolve their own regional security challenges. This transactional approach underscores a growing divergence in transatlantic priorities.
Meanwhile the EU continues to provide Ukraine with military, political, and humanitarian support, on the grounds that a situation in which Ukraine loses significant parts of its territory, and is not allowed to choose its own security path forward, would have devastating consequences. However, there is also a recognition in Washington that Russia cannot be defeated militarily and that threats from the US or EU are ineffective.
As a result, dialogue with Russia becomes not only necessary but inevitable. Russia’s leadership has signaled its willingness for constructive engagement, a fact that the Europeans have been slower to acknowledge. For the European Union, the lesson may be to reassess its rigid stance and consider approaches more aligned with its own long-term stability. The continuous amplification of a so-called ‘’Russian threat,’’ while neglecting Russia’s core interests, and the unconditional support for Ukraine under the Biden administration have so far failed to achieve their political objectives. Instead these policies have driven Europe into severe economic crisis.
The continent has entered a period of persistent inflation with slow growth. Its biggest economic challenges have been its involvement in the Ukraine war and the rise in energy prices, a factor that has hit energy-intensive industries in Europe, but has also been exacerbated by weaker demand from the likes of China and weaker consumer demand within Europe.
The European governments are currently pursuing an unprecedented push for military independence, amid fears the US is no longer a reliable ally. But militarization without adequate financial backing, comes at the expense of social spending, fueling tensions within EU countries and raising the risk of domestic instability.
In this evolving context, where the US openly sidelines the European Union, the economic alliance must confront its role in both regional and global politics. Leaders like Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen, the 66- year- old current president of the European Commission, and others who hold institutional positions, should prioritize the practical needs of European citizens rather than pursue ideological agendas of elite circles.
For Africa, this moment of European uncertainty also opens new opportunities it. As Europe reevaluates its global partnerships, the continent could emerge as a vital partner in shaping a more balanced international order.
Mumuni writes from Abeokuta, Ogun state.
