Reps approve MTEF, endorse $64.85 Oil benchmark, N54.46trn spending for 2026–2028

By Christiana Ekpa

The House of Representatives on Thursday considered and adopted the report of its Committees on Finance and on National Planning and Economic Development on the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).
The report, presented by the Chairman of the House Committee on Finance, Hon. James Abiodun Faleke, followed an extensive review of submissions by Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) as well as Government-Owned Enterprises (GOEs).
In its findings, the committees endorsed crude oil benchmark prices of $64.85 per barrel for 2026, $64.30 for 2027 and $65.50 for 2028. They noted that Nigeria’s crude oil output performance, based on OPEC targets, had been impressive, with the country recording one of the strongest month-on-month production gains among OPEC members in November 2025, according to the December 2025 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
The committees also approved projected domestic crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2026, rising to 1.88 mbpd in 2027 and 1.92 mbpd in 2028.
On macroeconomic assumptions, the House endorsed exchange rate projections of ₦1,512 to the dollar in 2026, ₦1,432.15 in 2027 and ₦1,383.18 in 2028, in line with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy to stabilise the naira and strengthen fiscal and monetary policy coordination.
Inflation was projected to moderate from 16.5 per cent in 2026 to 13 per cent in 2027 and nine per cent in 2028, while real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was projected at 4.68 per cent, 5.96 per cent and 7.9 per cent for the three years respectively. The committees assessed growth prospects for 2026 as high, in anticipation of gains from ongoing economic and tax reforms.
The House further endorsed the implementation of the new Tax Acts as “veritable instruments” for economic reform and development. It also recommended the adoption of a National Scanning Policy within the National Single Window of the Nigeria Revenue Services (NRS), in collaboration with relevant agencies, to enhance revenue assurance, improve trade facilitation, reduce leakages, and strengthen transparency and national security.
On fiscal aggregates, the committees approved proposed Federal Government spending of ₦54.46 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year. Of this, Federal Government retained revenue was put at ₦31.83 trillion, while new borrowings—both domestic and foreign—were estimated at ₦20.38 trillion. Debt service was projected at ₦15.52 trillion, pensions, gratuities and retirees’ benefits at ₦1.376 trillion, and the fiscal deficit at ₦22.63 trillion.
Capital expenditure, exclusive of transfers, was pegged at ₦20.131 trillion, while statutory transfers were projected at ₦3.152 trillion and the Sinking Fund at ₦388.54 billion. Total recurrent (non-debt) expenditure was estimated at ₦15.265 trillion, with special interventions for recurrent and capital expenditure pegged at ₦200 billion and ₦14 billion respectively.
Following the adoption of the report, the House resolved that all the projections and recommendations contained in the MTEF and FSP for 2026–2028 be sustained to support economic stability, growth and development in the medium term.