By Jude Opara
With the recent defection by the former governor of Anambra state, Peter Obi and the former governor of Kano state, Rabiu Kwankwaso from the African Democratic Congress (ADC), it is becoming clearer that the much talked about coalition of opposition politicians ahead of the 2027 general elections may be a rouse after all.
Recall that after the 2023 elections, many analysts had argued the the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) was able to win because the opposition parties did not come together to fight the ruling party.
Therefore, it was wholesomely endorsed by Nigerians when the coalition of displaced politicians from the then main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and those from the Labour Party and some aggrieved members of the APC who lost out in the power equation came to join the ADC.
Their coming together showed a lot of promise that even the presidency and the APC were believed to rattled. In fact many supporters of the ruling party started thinking that the idea of alleged infiltration of the opposition to cause crisis within them was proving to be counter productive.
Recall that the PDP was in several court cases between the factions then loyal to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike and the former National Chairman of the party, Tanimu Turaki. Eventually Wike and his group won and today they constitute what is left of the once ruling party.
The irony in the whole saga is that while Wike has severally declared his intention to work for the reelection of President Bola Tinubu of the APC, he is not only answering the National Leader of the party, but equally insisting that the PDP will field a presidential candidate in the presidential election.
Analysts have taken this dangling posture to mean that Wike is not being truthful to either the President in his avowed support for his reelection or the party that he wants the PDP candidate to form the next government.
Nonetheless, on Saturday, the PDP recorded one presidential aspirant, Sen. Sandy Onoh who obtained the party’s expression of interest and nomination forms for the primary election.
In fact, listening to the aspirant and reading the body language of the members of the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party, analysts said it was obvious that the glory of the party has since left. It was clear to all who witnessed the brief ceremony and media briefing after picking the presidential nomination forms that a game was about to be unfolded in the guise of contesting against President Tinubu, who he had boasted to beat at the polls.
It is also interesting that In the Labour Party, the former National Chairman, Barr. Julius Abure despite the position of the Supreme Court in a judgement on April 2 last year has continued to fight on. Many analysts have suggested that he is the battle axe being used to cut the party into pieces.
Those who belong to this school of thought argued that the coming of Obi which led the party to a surprise third place in the last presidential election, and also made the party to rise from the ashes to be rated as the number three in the country, for the first time.
In a suspicious move, Aburi started fighting the party leader (Obi) as well as the only governor the party has, Governor Alex Otti of Abia state. At the end, Obi was to leave before the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) effected the order of the court by replacing the name of Abure with that of the Caretaker Chairman, Sen. Nenadi Usman.
And for some curious reasons, the electoral umpire, INEC has not been able to operate in such a way that people will agree that they are truly independent. They always tended to pander towards the party in power. If not why would INEC wait until Obi leaves the Labour Party before effecting the position of the court by removing Abure’s name from its portal?, analysts have asked.
In another drama, Nigerians all witnessed the episode where the former Deputy National Chairman of the ADC, Nafiu Bala Gombe ran to the court to deny that he was privy to the take over of the leadership of the ADC by the group led by former Senate President, David Mark. He had argued that with the voluntary resignation of the former National Chairman, Chief Ralph Nwosu, he was supposed to ascend to the national chairman’s seat.
However, The Federal High Court, Abuja had asked the Mark led NWC to come and answer to the allegations of Gombe, and instead of doing that, the party curiously went to the Court of Appeal. The Appeal Court angrily fined Mark and his faction and ruled that status quo ante bellum be maintained.
Surprisingly, as soon as that judgement was given, INEC immediately removed the names of the ADC leaders — the National Chairman, David Mark and his National Secretary, Rauf Aregbesola from its portal. Many analysts believed that the commission breached it’s guidelines because what they did was to technically delist the party.
This forced the ADC to head to the Supreme Court which last week ruled that the party be returned to the INEC portal while the ADC goes back to the high court to answer to the charges. That judgement also means that it’s not yet Uhuru for the ADC and it’s supporters.
So the ADC initially showed some promises of a strong opposition, but the ambition of some stakeholders has continued to erode that confidence. Before the exit of Obi, other people eyeing the party’s presidential ticket included former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former governor of Rivers state and former presidential aspirant in the APC, Rotimi Amaechi and former presidential aspirant and development economist, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen. None of them have agreed to step down for the much troubled party to have a consensus presidential candidate.
The exit of Obi shows that none of the people wanting to take over Tinubu’s job is ready to make any personal sacrifice. But it’s only one person that will fly the flag of the party.
Indeed, many Nigerians have expected Atiku Abubakar to have shown leadership by stepping down and supporting one of the candidates from the South. They argue that since power in the current political equation is rotating between the North and the South, it would have been better for a southerner to contest against Tinubu who is also from the region.
For instance, former governor of Cross River state, Donald Duke had openly urged Atiku to jettison his own ambition as a national sacrifice. He reminded him that in 2019 when the former Vice President ran on the platform of the PDP, that nobody from the South took part in the party primary.
But the argument from Atiku’s camp is that the North has even been shortchanged by four years since the return to Democratic rule by Nigeria.
As a matter of fact, there are also those who have vehemently contended that Atiku remained the only verily force that can successfully counter Tinubu’s burgeoning political influence across the country. As of the moment, analysts believe that the sentiments in the North agsint Tinubu will naturally enhance Atiku’s chances.
Obi according to some observers had to leave because he found out that the ADC was more or less procured for Atiku to actualize his age long ambition of becoming the president of Nigeria.
Reading in-between the lines on his reasons for leaving the ADC as captured in his X handle, there seems to be a
lot that happened underneath in the party.
He had complained that some people will pretend to be with you openly but only to malign you behind you.
He said, “Many people do not truly understand the silent pains some of us carry daily—the private struggles, emotional burdens, and quiet battles we face while trying to survive and serve sincerely in difficult circumstances.
“More painful is when some of those you associate with, believing you would find understanding and solidarity among them, become part of the pressure you face. Some who publicly identify with you privately distance themselves or join in unfair criticism.
“The same Nigerian state and its agents that created unnecessary crises and hostility within the Labour Party that forced me to leave now appear to be finding their way into the ADC, with endless court cases, internal battles, suspicion, and division, instead of focusing on deeper national problems.
“Even within spaces where one labours sincerely, one is sometimes treated like an outsider in one’s own home. You and your team become easy targets for every failure, frustration, or misunderstanding, as though honest contribution has become a favour being tolerated rather than appreciated”.
But pundits say Obi’s lamentaion is premature. According to them, if Obi is truly confident that he can win the ballot for any political party, he should be ready to slug it out with other contenders and never to expect that the presidential ticket would be surrendered to him. He cannot make a spectator of those who have been nursing the presidential ambition before him.
Many pundits have said that Obi and Kwankwaso are working together, hence their exit from the ADC within a space of 12 hours.
While it’s true that an Obi/Kwankwaso ticket will push the APC and its candidate, it can never be the same as all the political juggernauts in the ADC filing behind one ticket.
Similarly, the Atiku-Amaechi presidential ticket is being touted by their supporters.
Analysts say what this means is that it’s most likely that President Tinubu will be pumping his champagne now because it appears that the coast is getting clearer for his reelection.
Indeed all the odds really seem to favour the incumbent and his party because going by the Electoral Act 2026, Tinubu is so far the only person who is sure of being on the ballot. All the political parties have only till the end of this month to complete their primaries. Also, under the new Electoral Act, political parties must submit their membership list to INEC at least three weeks before the primary and no politician after the primary of his party can defect to contest on the platform of another party.
For instance, without prejudice to whatever will be the outcome of the ADC case before the court, it’s clear that among Atiku, Amaechi and Hayatu-Deen, only one of them will have the opportunity of fulfilling their ambition. The only option left for those who are not sure of the arrangement is to jump ship now, in the usual primitive Nigerian political culture.
Even for Obi, it’s not yet clear whether he will be on the ballot because going by anticidents, one will not be surprised to hear of a court case involving the party he is being touted to move to.
Whichever way you look at it, all these point to the fact that Tinubu who is reputed as the master strategist may have succeeded in scattering the opposition. The emerging depleting of the opposition is certainly to the advantage of President Tinubu.
What is happening today in the ADC is a reminder of what one top member of the APC had said confidentially sometime last year that, it will be difficult for the ADC to be on the ballot and that if they must be, that they would be depleted. And it’s playing out already.
Though, there is little or no strong point to blame the government for the crisis rocking the opposition parties, those who hold that view may not be wrong after all. A few weeks ago, the Chief of Staff to the President, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila was seen in now viral video urging Hon. Leke Abejide not to defect from the ADC, but to rather remain there and scatter it. He added by saying, “we like what you are doing”.
Tinubu is not the kind of politician who likes to share his glory with anyone else. He is highly experienced to know what he wants and how to go for it. Remember that he ran Lagos state as governor with three deputies within eight years. He began with Mrs. Kofoworola Bucknor Akerele, the. Femi Pedro and later Abiodun Ogunleye. And when his tenure ended in 2007, Asiwaju Tinubu did not leave Lagos like that, he went home with the power structure and till date, he is said to always have a say in who becomes what in the state.
However, with about 31 state governors in the APC, the only thing the government should ensure is that INEC gives Nigerians a free, fair and credible exercise. The INEC Chairman, Prof. Joash Amupitan is already like a marked man, so he must be extremely careful to avoid the kind of “glitches” which the former INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu failed to explain till date.
