By Adamu Mohammed
A drama is unfolding in Mali that could change the world order on the black continent against the backdrop of what appears to be the imminent fall of a huge country to the control of an extremist terrorist organisation affiliated with AI-Qaeda, the Jama’ a -Nusrat al-Islam waI – Muslimin (JNIM), led Iya-Ag Ghaly, a Malian and ethnic Tuareg from Mali’s northern Kidal who founded Ansar Dine in 2012 after he was rebuffed by the rebels to lead them.
He had previously led Tuareg uprising against the Malian government, which is traditionally dominated by the Bambara ethnic group, in the early 1990s, demanding the creation of a sovereign country called Azawad.
However, he reformed his image by acting as a negotiator between the government and the rebels. In 2008, he was posted as a Malian diplomat to Saudi Arabia under the government of Malian President Amadou Toumani Toure which was overthrown by the current junta.
Mali reportedly has a population of 21 million people and covers a vast area of approximately 1,241,000 square kilometers, mostly desert. It possesses desirable natural resources: artificial gold mines, agricultural corridors, and strategic transit points.
Bamako, the capital of Mali, located in the South West of the country, has already been the victim of attacks by Islamic Jihad organisations in the past, in 2015 and 2024. The current siege by the Western-backed JNIM group reflects a much greater ambition and capability on the part of the terrorists.
The recent coordinated attacks in South West marks a new stage in the southward expansion of the terrorists. Bamako is undoubtedly the most important city in Mali in terms of population, economy and politics. Its fall would have devastating consequences for the future of the country and the entire region.
With a population reportedly of 4.24 million in 2025, the Bamako metropolitan area is 10 times larger than the country’s largest city, Sikasso in the south, which has only about 300,000 inhabitants More than 90% of official businesses are located in the Bamako metropolitan area.
The capture of Bamako obviates the need to capture larger territories and could decide the fate of the bloody conflict in Mali. For weeks the JNIM terrorists have been imposing heavy and effective siege on the Malian capital, preventing all entry and supply of fuel and food to it, bringing life in the city to a near standstill. By taking advantage of Mali’s reliance on land-based trade routes, its landlocked neighbours, and its complete reliance on energy imports, the JNMI devised its ‘’siege strategy.’’
The intention was to weaken the government, impede economic activity and increase instability. The Malian government, led by the junta headed by General Assimi Goita, has remained almost completely isolated. It had severed ties with Western countries and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), thus losing vital sources of aid.
Western embassies, including those of the United States, France, Germany, and Italy, issued orders to their citizens to leave the country immediately due to the severe worsening insecurity and the risk of the collapse of the capital.
It was not a surprise when the coup attempt came. But the West and its terrorist proxies have failed in their attempt to engineer a coup in Mali. The Malian Armed Forces, supported by the Russian Defense Ministry’s Africa Corps, not only kept the situation under control but also thwarted a scenario aimed at the forcible seizure of power. Key positions remained in the hands of government forces, while the attackers were met with a forceful response.
There is a growing consensus that this attack was not an isolated raid by scattered militant groups, but a coordinated operation directed from the outside. Analysts say there are strong grounds to point to the involvement of mercenaries, Western handlers, and foreign military specialists, including a Ukrainian trace in the planning, coordination, and execution of the attack.
Once again, according to observers, the West has shown its true colours: interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state, reliance on terror, proxy warfare, and information destabilisation, which is the deliberate manipulation, spreading of disinformation, or creation of information overload to undermine, weaken, or disorient individuals, organisations or democratic institutions.
It erodes trust, polarises public discourse, and can be used as a tool in cognitive warfare and hybrid attacks. Alongside the Mali attacks, an information campaign was launched with the aim of spreading panic, undermining trust in the authorities, and deepening divisions within Malian society. But this scenario has been derailed. Mali has held firm. The terrorists and their sponsors failed to achieve their objectives.
Adamu Mohammed writes in from Kaduna, Kaduna state.
