The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says global oil demand will continue to grow through 2050, reaching 124.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), with no peak in consumption on the horizon.
The projection is contained in OPEC’s 2026 World Oil Outlook (WOO), released on Thursday.
In the report, Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC secretary-general, said oil would remain the single largest component of the global energy mix despite rapid growth in renewable energy.
“Against this backdrop, we see oil demand retaining the largest share in the energy mix and reaching 124 million barrels a day by 2050, with no peak in oil demand on the horizon,” Al Ghais said.
According to the report, global oil demand is expected to rise from 105.1 mbpd in 2025 to 113.3 mbpd by 2030 and 124.1 mbpd by 2050, representing an increase of 19 mbpd over the period.
“In addition, oil demand growth in many non-OECD regions is likely to see a gradual deceleration, including in Other Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, based on slower economic growth, rising fuel substitution and increasing efficiency,” OPEC said.
”Similarly, oil demand growth in Africa is expected to stay at around 0.2 mb/d p.a. between 2025 and 2050. This reflects dynamic economic development, rising urbanization and industrialization, the substitution of biomass by LPG and a rapid expansion of transport services.”
The report said oil is expected to maintain nearly 30 percent of the global energy mix by 2050, while the combined share of oil and natural gas would remain around 54 percent.
OPEC also projected global primary energy demand to rise by 23 percent between 2025 and 2050, driven by population growth, urbanisation, economic expansion, rising electricity consumption and the growth of data centres.
The organisation said demand growth would be concentrated in non-OECD economies, while consumption in advanced economies would remain largely flat or decline over the long term.
The report identified road transportation, aviation and petrochemicals as the major drivers of future oil demand growth.
According to OPEC, demand from road transportation is expected to increase by 5.7mbpd by 2050, while aviation and petrochemicals will contribute an additional 4.2mbpd and 4.6mbpd, respectively.
The organisation also stressed the need for sustained investment across the oil industry to meet future demand.
OPEC says the global oil industry will require $17.7 trillion in cumulative investment by 2050 to meet rising demand.
“For oil alone, we see the need for investment of $17.7 trillion from 2026 to 2050,” the report added.
OPEC estimated that upstream projects would account for $14.5 trillion of the required investment, while downstream and midstream infrastructure would require $1.9 trillion and $1.3 trillion, respectively.
The organisation said the outlook underscores the need for an “all energies” approach to the global energy future, arguing that energy security, affordability and sustainability must be pursued simultaneously.
OPEC said Africa’s oil demand will rise from 4.9mbpd in 2025 to 9.2mbpd by 2050.
The forecast represents an increase of 4.3mbpd, or nearly 88 percent, over the period.
According to the report, Africa will rank among the leading sources of incremental global oil demand alongside India, Other Asia and the Middle East.
“The primary sources of long-term oil demand growth are India, Other Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America,” OPEC said.
The oil group attributed Africa’s growth outlook to strong demographic trends across the continent.
The report projected that Africa’s population will rise from 1.55 billion people in 2025 to 2.47 billion by 2050, accounting for nearly two-thirds of global population growth over the period.
OPEC also expects Africa to record one of the highest rates of urbanisation and economic growth globally, factors expected to drive energy consumption.
“Global primary energy demand is set to increase from around 312 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 to nearly 383 mboe/d in 2050,” the report said.
“The growth will come almost entirely from developing countries and regions, led by India, Other Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.”
OPEC further projected that Africa would become a major destination for energy investment, particularly in refining.
The report said Africa is expected to account for about 0.8mbpd of the 4.9mbpd refining capacity additions planned globally between 2026 and 2030, making the continent one of the leading regions for refinery expansion.
OPEC said improving access to affordable and reliable energy would remain critical for Africa’s economic development and efforts to eradicate energy poverty.
The organisation noted that future energy demand growth across the continent reinforces the need for continued investment in both conventional and alternative energy sources.
