The Cost of Fuel Shocks and Hunger

There is a quiet crisis unfolding across Nigeria, especially Northern Nigeria; and it is being measured not in government statements, but in empty bowls, in clinics that are filling up again, and in markets where a bag of millet now costs more than a day’s wage.

This week, a World Bank report warned that 139 million Nigerians are now poor or vulnerable to poverty. That is more than half the country. At the same time, news reports put headline inflation in June above 30% in 19 states, with Sokoto recorded at 35.22% and food inflation in the state at 37.01%. This is because between February and April, fuel prices jumped from N800 to N1,400 per litre after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz sent a shock through global energy markets.

It is common knowledge that when fuel goes up, everything follows. In  Nigeria, food moves on trucks that run on diesel. Water is pumped with generators. Mills grind with petrol. The immediate consequence of the shock is that a mother in Gada LGA now spends more to cook a pot of soup than she earns in a day. A farmer in Jigawa sells his harvest at a loss because he cannot afford to move it to market. The chain is simple and cruel.

We cannot pretend not to see the human cost that is already showing. In Sokoto, health workers say they are seeing children return to clinics after relapsing into malnutrition. One hospital in the state reported that nearly 40 children previously treated since February are back on admission, with more cases undocumented. “I am worried and sometimes angry about the increasing numbers we are seeing,” one health worker said. Reports from other states in the North West and North East tell the same story. Other regions of the country are also being hit in varying degrees.

And the numbers are getting worse. According to the latest food security assessment, 36.2 million Nigerians are projected to face acute food insecurity during the June to August lean season. That is the highest in recent years. Humanitarian agencies have warned that parts of the North, and indeed Nigerians at large, are experiencing the worst hunger levels in nearly a decade, driven by conflict, displacement and soaring food prices. UNICEF has also cautioned that if the current shocks persist, up to 23 million more children could fall into monetary poverty before the end of the year, with the majority in Africa and Asia.

For this newspaper, this is not just about hunger but about the future. A child who is malnourished before age five will likely never catch up in school as their immune system will remain weak. Their earning potential as an adult drops by up to 20%, according to experts. Multiply that by millions, and you are looking at a generation whose potential is being stolen.

And the timing could not be worse. We are in the lean season especially in the North. The last harvest is almost gone and the new one is still months away. At the same time, the weather agency has warned that 33 states are at high risk of flooding this year, with most of the vulnerable communities in the North. If farms in Kebbi, Niger, Benue and other flood-prone areas are washed away, food prices will climb again by October. We are heading into a double hit. Expensive fuel now, and possible food shortage later.

The N80bn flood fund released by government is a welcome intervention. It’s also worthy of note that partners have pledged support for IDP reintegration and nutrition programs, including N1.5bn earmarked for Sokoto. But pledges do not fill stomachs today, and the scale of the problem demands more than emergency response.

This newspaper believes that what is needed now is deliberate, targeted action that puts food and children at the centre of policy. We, therefore, recommend four immediate actions to be taken by government in order to mitigate the deteriorating situation.

First, the 2026 budget must be scrutinized with hunger in mind. Reports have raised questions about the N12.8tn Service-Wide Vote and the N2.19tn provision for personnel. Nigerians deserve a line-by-line explanation. If even 10% of that is redirected to fertilizer subsidies, grain reserves, school feeding and nutrition, we can keep millions of children fed until the next harvest.

Second, we need an emergency nutrition surge in the ten highest-burden states. That means restocking therapeutic foods, paying community health workers on time, and deploying mobile clinics to villages instead of waiting for patients to travel 100 kilometers to town. It also means scaling up community-based management of acute malnutrition so treatment starts early.

Third, we must cushion the effect of fuel costs on food. While global oil prices are outside our control, government can grant tax waivers on agricultural inputs, subsidize transport for food trucks, and fast-track the repair of critical roads in the North and other parts of the country before rains cut them off. The NRS has just announced N21.6tn in collection for the first half of the year. A portion of that must go to protecting the poorest from price shocks.

Fourth, states and traditional institutions must lead on sensitization. Emirs, district heads and religious leaders still shape behavior in our communities. They can promote backyard gardens, the use of local grains like millet and sorghum, and exclusive breastfeeding. They can also encourage families to keep part of their harvest for home consumption instead of selling everything.

The hard truth is that Nigeria grows enough food in good years to feed itself. What we lack is resilience. One global shock, one bad rainy season, and millions slide back into poverty.

The President Bola Tinubu administration has spoken loudly about reforms and renewed hope. We make bold to say that hope must be measured in calories, not just statistics. It must be measured in a child in Sokoto who goes to bed full, a farmer who can afford diesel, and a community that survives the flood season without losing its food.

We cannot afford another year of reports and no action. The children in Sokoto who are being weighed in clinics today will be the workforce of 2040. If we let them go hungry now, we are borrowing trouble for the future.

Fuel prices may be global, but hunger is local. And it is our duty to stop it. Let the 2026 budget be the budget that fed children first.