US: Dangote Refinery drives 7-fold jump in Nigeria’s petroleum exports

*EIA says refinery cut imports, boosted self-sufficiency, and is positioning Nigeria as major supplier

By Egena Sunday Ode

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has driven a seven-fold surge in Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports since 2023, the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) has said.

In its latest report, the EIA said Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Q2 2026. That is up sharply from an annual average of 79,000 bpd in 2023.

The agency credited the growth largely to the January 2024 start-up of the Dangote Refinery. Citing data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa, the EIA said about 350,000 bpd of the 561,000 bpd shipped in Q2 2026 was exported, compared to an annual average of 46,000 bpd in 2023.

“With increased supply of petroleum products from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the report stated.

Before Dangote came on stream, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries shipped less than 100,000 bpd, both locally and abroad. Shipments jumped after the refinery started, and got another boost after maintenance and expansion work was completed in February 2026.

The EIA said the refinery’s crude distillation capacity rose from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd after the expansion, enabling higher output.

Domestic distribution also grew. Intra-Nigerian shipments hit 211,000 bpd in Q2 2026, up from 81,000 bpd in 2025 and 33,000 bpd in 2023, showing the refinery’s growing role in supplying fuel across the country.

The impact on imports has been significant. Nigeria, which imported nearly 400,000 bpd of petroleum products in 2023, saw seaborne imports drop to less than 130,000 bpd by Q2 2026.

The EIA noted that Nigeria’s position in the international market has strengthened at a time when supply constraints in other regions have created openings.

Vortexa data cited by the agency showed exports to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in Q2 2026, compared with 40,000 bpd in 2025 and 15,000 bpd in 2023. Shipments also rose as disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz increased demand for alternative sources of refined products.

The report underscores Dangote’s role in improving Nigeria’s energy security and positioning the country as a major exporter of refined products.

The refinery has already announced plans to add another 700,000 bpd of fully complex refining capacity by the end of 2028. That would bring total capacity to about 1.4 million bpd. According to CEO David Bird, long-lead equipment has been procured and construction contracts are being awarded.