2027: 84% Nigerians willing to vote despite insecurity, distrust

No fewer than 84 per cent of Nigerians are likely to vote in the 2027 general elections, a new Yiaga Africa survey has revealed.

The National Voting Intentions Survey 3.0, conducted in September 2026 among 2,470 Nigerians across the 36 states and the FCT, however, identified insecurity, distrust in INEC and concerns over electoral dispute resolution as major threats to turnout.

The survey was unveiled in Abuja on Wednesday.

It found that 47 per cent of respondents were “very likely” to vote, while 61 per cent said fear of violence could prevent them from exercising their franchise.

Insecurity topped the concerns, with 82 per cent of respondents expressing fears that it could affect the 2027 elections.

Confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission also dropped significantly.

According to the report, confidence in INEC fell from 45 per cent in the first two editions of the survey to 34 per cent in the latest poll.

Similarly, only 49 per cent expressed confidence in the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and IReV result-transmission platforms.

The survey also raised concerns about the judiciary’s handling of electoral disputes.

It found that 63 per cent of respondents had little or no confidence that the courts would resolve electoral disputes fairly.

The figure rose to 81 per cent among respondents in the South-South.

Speaking on the findings, the Chairman of Yiaga Africa’s Board of Trustees, Hussaini Abdu, said the survey was intended to identify gaps that could undermine voter participation.

“It’s a wake-up call to Nigerians and to civil society organisations, and everyone that is involved in elections,” Abdu said.

He urged political parties to mobilise their supporters and encourage greater participation in the electoral process.

Abdu said Nigeria could not afford another low turnout similar to the 2023 general elections, when only 27 per cent of registered voters reportedly participated.

“It is not good enough that you have over 100 million people registering to vote, and then you have only 27 per cent like we had in the last elections, coming out to vote,” he said.

Yiaga Africa’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, Safiya Bichi, said Nigerians had not lost interest in elections.

“Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, they see it as their duty and they believe their votes can make a difference,” she said.

Bichi, however, identified fear, distrust and money as major factors separating voters’ intentions from actual participation.

She described Nigeria’s low turnout as “a conversion problem, not an apathy problem”.

With the presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027, Bichi said there was limited time to address the identified challenges.

The Executive Director of the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa, Ezenwa Nwagwu, described the 84 per cent voter-intention figure as encouraging.

Nwagwu, however, cautioned INEC against making excessive promises ahead of the polls.

“INEC must not overpromise. It should under-promise and then overperform,” he said.

Yiaga Africa called on the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a threat-based national election security plan by November 2026.

It recommended priority attention to the North-East, North-West and North-Central regions.

The organisation also urged authorities to prioritise the protection of voters and not only election materials.

It further asked INEC to commit publicly to real-time uploading of polling-unit results on IReV.

Yiaga Africa also urged the judiciary to resolve pre-election disputes before ballot papers are printed and publish clear timelines for determining election petitions.