2027: Opposition divisions may cost Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso — Group

The Grassroots Mobilisation Initiative has predicted that divisions among opposition parties could weaken their chances of defeating President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.

The group, which is mobilising support for Tinubu’s re-election, said vote splitting across the six geopolitical zones could give the incumbent an advantage.

GMI National Coordinator, Samaila Musa, stated this in a political assessment of the emerging electoral landscape, arguing that the opposition’s failure to form a united coalition could undermine its chances.

Musa said former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso could divide opposition votes in key regions, particularly the North-West, North-East and North-Central.

“Following a nationwide evaluation of political dynamics across all six geopolitical zones, GMI highlights that political realities on the ground, coupled with a divided opposition, make an opposition victory mathematically impossible,” he said.

The group claimed that Atiku would struggle to win states in the South, arguing that Obi’s political influence and the positions of some South-East governors could weaken the former vice-president’s support in the region.

It also projected that Tinubu would retain a strong advantage in the South-West, his home region.

In the North-West, Musa said Kwankwaso could attract substantial votes in Kano and Jigawa, as well as make inroads into Katsina, potentially reducing the support available to Atiku.

“The votes will be siphoned directly from Atiku’s traditional base, severely diluting the opposition’s voting power,” he said.

Musa also identified the North-East as a key battleground, predicting competition between Atiku, Vice-President Kashim Shettima and governors aligned with the ruling party.

He said divisions among opposition supporters in the North-Central could further complicate efforts to build a winning coalition.

The GMI coordinator argued that a presidential candidate could not rely solely on northern votes to win the election, citing former President Muhammadu Buhari’s eventual victory in 2015 after building an alliance with Tinubu and securing broader national support.

“Without Southern states, any presidential bid remains dead on arrival,” he said.

Despite its criticism of opposition divisions, the group said it welcomed the participation of all candidates, including Obi and Kwankwaso, insisting that voters should be allowed to assess their programmes and records.

GMI also disclosed that it had activated its grassroots mobilisation structures across the country’s 774 local government areas ahead of the election.

Musa attributed Tinubu’s projected electoral advantage to what he described as the President’s economic reforms and expanding political alliances.

“President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is set to secure a decisive victory in the coming election, not only because of his courageous economic governance and structural reforms, but because the electoral map heavily favours a truly national leader,” he said.

He added, “We welcome every candidate to stay in the race and let the voters judge everyone on their merits.”

However, the group’s projections represent its political assessment and campaign position ahead of the 2027 election, rather than an established electoral outcome.