Emefiele, Naira redesign and the sanity of Nigerians

WEDNESDAY COLUMN BY USSIJU MEDANER

info@medaner.com, justme4justice@yahoo.com

The 2023 election is significant to Nigeria and Nigerians in so many ways and we cannot afford to miss it, regardless of manipulations by the enemies of the state who are bent on maintaining their hold on the nation – all for their selfish reasons. We are approaching a very crucial election, and suddenly, petroleum scarcity emerged from nowhere and has refused to end. While we are grasping with that, they came again with the naira redesign and demonetisation in a manner that is against global practice and common sense; insisting on ending the regime of old notes in the shortest unimaginable time space.
What Nigerians are going through right now can best be described as an organised attack on the sanity and survival of the country and its people. There exists no rational explanation for the pains and struggles the people have to go through to access their hard-earned money, seamlessly carrying out their business transactions and paying for services as and when necessary and conveniently as free citizens. It would remain forever unexplainable the rationale behind the hurriedness imposed on the implementation of the currency change and to why appointed officials in a democracy would go so low into selfishness to the point of wanting to forcefully impose a policy without leaving any room for gauging effects and creating room for reappraisals.
Definitely, we would eventually establish the only plausible rationale for the timing of the policy and also for the acute time imposition as well as the refusal of CBN to be bothered about the pains of Nigerians. We would also have to establish the link or otherwise between the hurried policy and the desire of some elements to unduly influence the outcomes of the 2023 general elections.
Naira redesign or currency swap or whatever nomenclature it is giving is a global government policy aimed at protecting the strength of national currency against manipulations by unscrupulous citizens who hoard and undermine the circulation of currency. Across the globe, and not limited to Nigeria, nations periodically change their currency. The United State of America did that last year; Saudi Arabia did that and the process is still ongoing till now. However, what is amazing is the forced timing and limitation given to the process by Emefiele-led CBN. The USA still uses both the old and new dollars side-by-side and would continue to do so until the old notes are totally withdrawn from circulation via continuous deposition with the nation’s banks. The Saudi Arabia kingdom is doing the same.
The World Bank, some days ago commented on the Nigerian government’s rushed currency change, saying it is strange. Accordingly, though it is normal to have periodic currency redesigns and demonetisation, such a transition usually takes about one year or more. So why the rush in the case of Nigeria? The World Bank submitted that “Periodic currency redesigns and demonetization of older notes are normal internationally. However, they usually involve transition periods of one year or longer so as to minimise economic disruption.
There are concerns, and real concerns at that. The presidential candidate of APC rightly describes the implications on ordinary Nigerians, small businesses and vulnerable households. It is the same concern the World Bank voiced. It said the rapid demonetisation could be costly to small businesses. According to the World Bank, rapid demonetisation can generate significant short-term costs, affecting mostly small scale businesses, and poor and vulnerable households who would be mostly affected by the liquidity-constraint and unable to carry out their day-to-day cash transactions.
We should also bear in mind that the country, beyond the rhetoric, is not prepared for a digital economy. From available and verifiable data, only 45 percent of Nigerians adults have bank accounts, and would in any way be able to access any digital payment platform. It is also stated that, in the last years, only 34 percent of the population had engaged in any form of digital payment or receipt of payment. The infrastructure is apparently deficient; the people are not ready, nor are they effectively sensitised to embrace the new policy, yet Emefiele is bent on enforcing the policy on the unprepared system. This is not to talk about the under-population of banks in the country.
The proposed digital payment platform alternative could not suffice; the readily available infrastructure is not only near enough for the program, but it is also highly unlikely that it would expand fast enough to bridge the already created gaps as a result of shortages of new notes across the country. Electronic network is below par to requirement; even the urban areas are not adequately covered not to talk of the interiors and rural areas across the country. Nigeria and Nigerians are in no way ripe for such a quantum leap as pushed by the apex bank, particularly at this point in time.
The CBN policy is filled with too many unpreparedness; too many loopholes to stay. It is only appropriate that in sweeping out the old currency to the tune of #2.7 trillion as stated by CBN, there should have been a corresponding printing of as much as the same amount to dump in circulation. What CBN has done so far is taking out #2.7 trillion of old notes and print out #400 Billion new notes for circulation. That figure represents about one-eighth of what is taken out. That was the beginning of the challenge Nigerians are subjected to presently. CBN knows this but is careless because there are ulterior motives to the implementation of the policy by Emefiele at this material time.
CBN wants to take Nigeria to the digital economy in a swoop, apparently why it printed a mere one-eighth of the old currencies, yet it has no planning and investment in collaboration with the telecom industry and other critical stakeholders. How can we develop telecoms infrastructure, without prior planning and investment in bandwidth growth nationwide, develop a multi-fold increase in electronic transactions capacity? How many towns and villages have no broadband telecom infrastructure enabling digital financial transactions across the country? We are not even talking of what generation of technology yet – 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G?
We have to ask the pertinent question; who is the CBN governor? Who is Emefiele? What connection does he have with the 2023 general election? We made the mistake as a country when the man was retained in such a sensitive position after declaring his intention for political office. He became partisan from that day; or at least publicly known. He has not hidden his disdain for the APC presidential candidate from that time onward; just as much as he has formed alliances with the opposition candidate to sustain his position beyond the Buhari Administration, as he did in the past. It is everywhere on the street; the objective is first to ignite hunger and anger, incite Nigerians against the ruling party and its presidential candidate and aid the success of their preferred candidate at the polls.
Though Mr. Emefiele would fail at its machinations, but soon enough, we will establish his plan to use his desperate policy to orchestrate the defeat of APC at the presidential poll. It is becoming obvious that the man at the head of CBN is part of the cabal that was bent on imposing its candidate on APC at the primary election and have refused to support the emerged flag bearer of the party afterwards.
Another question to ask is where is the said printed #400 Billion new notes? With that much money in circulation, the hardship would not be as it is now. Where are the notes? It is on note that the major banks that should be fed with the money to assuage the liquidity challenge on the streets have been starved with as low as only #1.0 million per day per branch. Yet, the smaller banks get as much as tens of million per day per their branches. Why? These banks possibly have ties with the CBN governor and his political associates in the leading opposition parties. Nigerians are suffering today because the notes Emefiele claimed to have been released to the streets are most likely in the coffers of his political allies and political party, and your guess?
Why would CBN rigidly insist on its policy? Why would the apex bank refuse to shift ground despite the subsisting court cases and the Supreme Court order, the pleas of the masses and the obvious suffering across the country? Lest we forget that we are in a democracy and not a dictatorship. Is it true that the main objective of the forces behind the currency redesign is to starve the APC presidential candidate of cash while feeding the PDP candidate with the same to influence the election outcomes? It is reported that a CBN official from Bauchi made a public statement that the old notes are no longer legal tender despite a subsisting Supreme Court order suspending the 10th February deadline. Is that a contempt of the court?
Let usk not fail to mention the reported CBN portal where those with the old notes are to go and obtain a digital PIN in order to deposit the old notes after the deadline. This is an additional burden on those in the rural areas and those with no access to the internet; and who are part of the support bloc of APC. With this controversial policy, are they not likely going to abstain from the coming elections or vote against the ruling party?
At what point would Emefiele give up his personal interest and bow to popular advice including from economists, the World Bank and the governors of states in the country. Very simple and the global practice: let the two, the old and new coexist while the old natural dissipates from circulation. There is still time for Emefiele to salvage his name, else his fall could be catastrophic.
GOD BLESS THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA!