Can Nigeria’s Peace Accord Survive 2027?

From: Femi Oyelola in Kaduna

On Tuesday, August 18th, 2026, in Abuja, Nigeria’s 2027 presidential candidates and top politicians signed a deal that bars them from being sued for breaking it.
There were no lawyers, no penalties, and no court to enforce it: just 30 men and women, a long table, and a document promising peace.
That’s the National Peace Accord. And ahead of the 2027 elections, it might be the most important piece of paper in the country with no legal power.

Because in Nigeria, we don’t settle elections in court first. We settle them in the streets, on WhatsApp, and in village squares. The Accord is an attempt to set the rules before that happens.

Investigation by this reporter revealed that the question for 2027 is straightforward: Will anyone still read it after the cameras leave the International Conference Center?

The signing was organized by the National Peace Committee, led by former Head of State General Abdulsalami Abubakar, rtd, in partnership with The Kukah Center. It took place exactly one day before INEC officially gave the go ahead for the commencement of campaigns for the presidential and National Assembly elections on Wednesday, August 19, 2026.

At the table were Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress, and Adewole Adebayo of the Social Democratic Party.

Representatives from the Labor Party, ADC, YPP, ZLP, Democratic Leadership Alliance, NDP, NRM, and other parties were also present.
President Bola Tinubu of the APC was not there.

He was represented by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume. The APC National Chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, also signed. The ADC presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, was absent.

Action Alliance presidential candidate, Aare Adekunle Rufai Omo-Aje, was among those who signed. In a statement in Kaduna, he described the accord as a call to political leaders and institutions to protect the integrity of the electoral process.
He made case for campaigns free of thuggery, hate speech, and ethnic incitement.

Barrister Bala Ahmed of the Nagari Chamber, Kano, said the document itself is straightforward. Signatories commit to upholding the Constitution, the Electoral Act, INEC guidelines, and running issue-based campaigns. They pledge to reject violence, hate speech, and the manipulation of religion and ethnicity.

General Abdulsalami has presided over this tradition since 2014. Alongside the Sultan of Sokoto and Bishop Matthew Kukah, he has made the signing a moral checkpoint before every major election.

The idea was born out of necessity.
An editorial by the Peoples Daily Newspaper on April 26th, 2026, stated that Nigeria’s democracy has walked a tightrope since 1999. By 2015, the contest between President Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari threatened to tip the country into widespread violence. That year’s accord, and Jonathan’s concession call, are credited with preventing a national crisis.

Since then, signing has become part of the electoral timetable. But the context keeps changing. In 2027, the stakes are higher because the tools of politics have shifted.

Representing President Tinubu, the SGF, Senator George Akume said the accord was an opportunity to reaffirm commitment to

peaceful and transparent elections. He praised the NPC for maintaining the initiative and pointed to improvements through PVCs and BVAS.
Akume highlighted the recent gubernatorial elections in Anambra, Ekiti, and Osun held between October 2025 and August 2026, in which different parties won. “That proves elections can be decided at the ballot,” he said.
“Let us campaign on superior ideas,” he added. “Let us debate issues and promote the best policies to expand opportunities for our people.” He also stated that the APC rejects violence, hate speech, and misinformation, including AI-generated content. “Win or lose, our country, Nigeria, must be the ultimate winner.”
But not everyone in the hall bought it. Sowore described the signing as a “ritual,” arguing that previous agreements had not stopped violence. He specifically referenced the August 15 Osun State governorship election where over 60 people died.
“I don’t have faith in it. I’m bringing faith to the system,” Sowore said. He called for a “Justice Accord” with sanctions for violators, arguing that without consequences, the document was meaningless.
Obi questioned the need for the exercise altogether. “Candidates seeking public office should demonstrate responsible conduct without being compelled to do so,” he said.

His proposed penalty was straightforward: “The punishment is that Nigerians should not vote for them.

He also appealed for credibility, saying “For the sake of Nigeria’s children, can we have an election where people’s votes truly count?” he asked. On Osun, he said: “In our democracy, nobody needs to die for an election.”

The INEC Chairman Joash Amupitan said the timing was crucial. With campaigns beginning, standards of conduct needed to be established. He expressed concern over hate speech, misinformation, and the shift from policy debates to identity attacks.

“Electoral contests in a constitutional democracy are not total wars; they are competitive job interviews before the electorate,” Amupitan said.

He stressed the importance of focusing on economic growth, security, infrastructure, healthcare, education, and social inclusion.

Omo-Aje agreed. He urged INEC to withstand pressure and ensure a level playing field. He also called on security agencies to stay professional and impartial. “They must not be used to intimidate voters or to favor any political party,” he stated.

Has the Peace Accord achieved its goal? Experts are divided. Dr. Aisha Mahmoud of the Faculty of Political Science at Kaduna State University says the accord has “soft power” because it creates a public record against which candidates can be held accountable.

“When a candidate incites violence, we can point to the paper they signed. That matters in the court of public opinion,” she said.

“But soft power without enforcement becomes a ceremony. And ceremony dominates at state-level elections.”\Prof. Jibrin Ibrahim, a member of the FCDO team monitoring preparations for the 2027 elections, is more blunt. “The accord has prevented a presidential-level meltdown since 2015. That is not small. But it has not stopped sub-national bloodletting. That is where 2027 will be tested.”

He points to 2023, when entire villages in Plateau and Benue States could not vote due to insecurity. “IDP camps are now constituencies. That is a failure of the peace infrastructure the accord was meant to support.”

It is observed that the NPC knows the optics are bad. A senior official admitted that the absence of Tinubu and Atiku was “troubling.”
The committee is now proposing a televised joint commitment within 30 days, in which each candidate pledges on camera: no thugs, no incitement, no rejection of court-issued results.

The idea is to make the pledge portable so it can be used at rallies, on radio, and in town halls. The NPC argues that symbolism must be turned into accountability.

Enforcement ideas are also under discussion, including a joint violation register maintained by INEC, police, DSS, and NOA.

Offenders may lose media access, and referrals for prosecution are considered when permitted by law.
However, analysts say the biggest cause of violence is economic hardship. With tough times, some youths see thuggery as a way to earn a living. “Cut the economics of violence,” Mahmoud states. “Public works and youth engagement in hotspots now. If a young man receives 50,000 naira from a project, he’s less likely to take 5,000 naira to snatch a ballot box.”

Security planning cannot be delayed. Hotspots from past election cycles — Plateau, Benue, Kaduna, Rivers, and parts of the South-East — require joint planning now by INEC, the police, the DSS, and civil defense, not in January.
The information space is another battleground. A 30-second WhatsApp audio can spark retaliation in Barkin Ladi or Guma faster than any campaign speech. Media outlets, tech platforms, and traditional rulers must monitor and combat disinformation.

This is why Mr. Sunday Egena, Daily Editor of  Peoples Daily Newspaper, says 2027 will not be decided at the ICC, but in six states where frustration, money, and guns intersect. Kaduna, he notes, “is Nigeria in miniature. When Kaduna sneezes, the North catches a cold.”

Plateau and Benue are equally critical. What is often called “farmer-herder clashes” turns into “constituencies that cannot vote” during elections. Rivers and parts of the South-East, with histories of disruption, are also on watchlists.

The accord asks candidates to avoid ethnic and religious mobilization. But as Sowore noted, without consequences, that clause is just ink.
This is the core issue. Nigeria now has better electoral technology. BVAS and IReV have improved transparency. Recent off-cycle elections have shown that power can change hands.

However, trust has not kept pace. Citizens have seen results overturned, vote-buying caught on camera, and officials compromised. So they ask: why sign peace accord if the system itself isn’t peaceful?
Obi’s response was to shift responsibility to voters. Akume’s was to appeal to patriotism. Omo-Aje’s was to emphasize institutional independence. The NPC’s stance is to keep meeting, because even a flawed ritual signifies a public commitment.

According to Rev. James Buba, “as campaigns roll out nationwide, the accord will be tested not in Abuja, but in ward meetings, on TikTok, in motor parks, and at collation centers.”

Citizens across the country are also sending a clear message to political actors: this time, peace cannot be a campaign slogan. Market women in Kaduna, students in Enugu, and community leaders in Benue say candidates must stop treating voters as tools for election and start treating them as partners in governance.
“Don’t come to us with rice and money during campaigns and disappear after,” said Hajiya Aisha Lawal, a trader in Zaria.

“Come with ideas, come with respect  and leave our communities  better than you met them.”
Young people are demanding accountability in real time. Civic groups are urging parties to sign additional commitments at the state and local government levels, and to publish the names of campaign managers responsible for rallies and mobilization.

“If your thugs cause trouble, we will know it was you,” said Comrade Ibrahim Musa, a youth leader . “We will record it, we will post it, and we will remember it on election day. Peace starts with you controlling your own people.”

Traditional and religious leaders are calling for direct engagement before violence starts. The advice is simple: visit your opponents’ strongholds, not just your own.

Hold town halls in communities that don’t vote for you. Speak against hate speech in your own language, to your own supporters, even when the cameras are not there.

“A leader who can only preach peace in Abuja cannot deliver peace in Kano,” said Rev. James Buba. “The Accord will only succeed if politicians prove in the field that the signature was not just for photographs.”

This agreement cost nothing to sign. But if it fails, Nigeria will pay in lives, in legitimacy, and in the years needed to rebuild trust.

The paper is signed. The cameras are gone. Whether 2027 will be decided by policy or violence depends on whether anyone actually reads and upholds the contract nobody can enforce.