By Abubakar Yunusa
A new risk assessment has warned that public confidence in Nigeria’s electoral umpire remains dangerously low ahead of the November 2025 Anambra governorship election.
The report, released by the Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) in Abuja on Friday, found that more than 71 percent of voters in the state have little or no trust in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
KDI’s Executive Director, Bukola Idowu, said the findings highlight a troubling crisis of legitimacy that could fuel voter apathy and unrest.
The study, titled The Early Warning: Assessing Pre-Election Security Risk Ahead of the 2025 Anambra Off-Cycle Governorship Election, identified Ihiala and Aguata as the most volatile local government areas.
Both zones were classified as “severe risk” due to a cocktail of political rivalry, youth mobilisation, and entrenched disputes over candidate selection.
Other high-risk areas include Awka South, Ogbaru, Onitsha North, Anaocha, Idemili North, Idemili South, Nnewi North, Orumba North, Orumba South, Anambra East, and Dunukofia.
Onitsha South, Njikoka, Nnewi South, and Anambra West were listed as moderate-risk.
Idowu recalled how insecurity in Ihiala derailed the 2021 governorship election, forcing INEC to hold a supplementary poll after failing to conduct voting on the main day.
In Aguata, the birthplace of Governor Charles Soludo, persistent vote-buying and low trust in security forces have kept tensions high.
According to the report, only 15 percent of respondents said they had strong confidence in INEC, while about 13 percent expressed limited trust.
Most linked their scepticism to the 2023 general election, when glitches on the Result Viewing Portal (IReV), delayed transmission, and other failures raised doubts about electoral transparency.
Turnout in Anambra has already collapsed to just 10.3 percent in the 2021 polls — despite widespread political awareness.
“Perception matters as much as performance,” the report stressed. “Even isolated failures can be generalised as systemic bias.”
KDI urged INEC to return to basics — ensuring timely logistics, functional BVAS machines, credible result management, and transparent reporting.
It also called on the commission to provide real-time polling updates and publish LGA-level results immediately to rebuild trust.
Security agencies were warned to strengthen community engagement and deploy trained personnel in proportion to each LGA’s risk rating.
The report concluded that unless urgent steps are taken, fragile trust, combined with security threats, could undermine the credibility of the November poll.
