APC Vs PDP: Who wins 2015 presidency?

By Ochiaka Ugwu

With the emergence of Mohammed Buhari as the presidential candidate of the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) in an election keenly contested by political big wigs, the crowded presidential field is beginning to clarify, following a war of posters and endorsements by political jobbers. Political experts say the presidential race for the moment features two serious contenders who stand above the rest of the crowded field-incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Former Head of State and APC presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, Their grading was as a result of their visibility in the contemporary Nigeria politics. These two no doubt have visible structures that can stand the test of time in the nation’s contemporary politics.

Although, there are other candidates from other political parties, but pundits have jointly said they are just there to make the numbers or at most want history to remember them as politicians who have at one time or the other sought to occupy the highest political office in their fatherland.

But in PDP, it seems the case of presidential candidacy and that of selecting a running mate have been settled following Jonathan’s emergence in a congress where he was the only contestant and the subsequent selection of Vice President Namadi Sambo as his running mate. For the APC, they are still trying to come out from the convention fever which was keenly contested and once again rekindled the hope of Nigerians on the possibility of entrenching internal democracy in our political parties. Although, Muhammadu Buhari clinched the ticket fair and square given his followership and acceptability within the party’s fold, but pundits did not rule out the possibility of APC getting it wrong with its choice of running mate which will balance the political equation that will send PDP parking from the villa next year. Since the party is left with the options of playing safe by hugging the past, or to take a gamble with futuristic daring which most Nigerians are yarning for, Nigerians in their millions have asked APC to do a lot of soul searching and deep thinking in picking a deputy that will give Buhari the much needed spread in 24 states of the federation.

However, it is no longer news that the nation’s political temperature has risen enormously following the emergence of Buhari as presidential candidate of APC thereby laying to rest the much speculation that the contest will finally push the former head of state to lay down the sword of politics as the party delegates will not nominate him being a habitual loser. This bold move by APC delegates after keeping Nigerians guessing on who their preferred choice will be has raised the ante.

Sources gathered that the APC party hierarchy is not leaving anything to chance in a race that will ultimately decide the fate of the ordinary Nigerians in a united Nigeria. Upon the fact that his party has given him (Jonathan) offer of first refusal to enable him clinch PDP ticket without hitches, it was authoritatively gathered that plans are in top gear to strip him off his candidature to push for the proper primaries which he is not likely to win. Just to put a clog on Jonathan’s wheel of progress and sensitize Nigerians on the dangers of prolonging PDP’s rule beyond 2015. It was reported that soon the APC will unveil a powerful campaign team that will bring to fore the misrule of the PDP for almost 16 years of sitting in the mantle.

Another obstacle before Jonathan is his soar relationship with most of his associates. The fact that nearly all of his political associates like the Former President, Olusegun Obasanjo have left his political nest planning to strike at the right time is not disputable. For some time to come, former President Obasanjo and President Jonathan are bound to keep most Nigerians bewildered over the seeming cold war between them. The two leaders seemed to have tactically avoided crossing each other’s path during high-brow public functions.

Not long ago, the governor of Bayelsa State, Seriake Dickson paid a surprise visit to Obasanjo at his hill top residence in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital. Contrary to official claim that Dickson only paid a normal visit to Obasanjo, sources said the governor actually went on a trouble-shooting mission following the brewing feud between Jonathan and Obasanjo. Neither Obasanjo nor Dickson volunteered any clue on the agenda of the meeting, which the sources said lasted for more than two hours. But the meeting came at the height of continued complaints by supporters of Obasanjo about a deliberate attempt by Abuja to rubbish the legacy of their principal. An insider finally confirmed that the subject of the meeting is not unconnected to the Jonathan 2015 project as the camp doesn’t want to leave any stone unturned. Even if it means consulting the devil for his success, they are ready to do that, the source concluded.

This was also followed by another five PDP governors who went and genuflected before Obasanjo begging him to temper political justice with mercy. But the whole pleas seem to have ended on deaf ear following the recent book published by Obasanjo where he described Jonathan as the weakest Nigeria leader who should not be entrusted with another term. It was widely said that given the fact of this rift between Jonathan and Obasanjo, the later has vowed to give the later some lessons on POS 101 in 2015.

Moreover, many Nigerians are said not to be disposed to Jonathan’s re-election as his presidency has brought nothing to them except hardship and misery. Their anger bothers on what they perceived as the deficit between government promises and realities on ground and the impact of official policies and programmes so far. They are upset about the state of the economy (level of poverty, sky rocketing debt, state of unemployment) and also the level of insecurity (Boko Haram, pirates and others). The APC is no doubt cashing on all these problems to frustrate PDP’s ambition.

But given Dr Jonathan’s advantage as a sitting president, opinion moulders have noted that APC will have the most unenviable task in the world to demolish the cultural belief that promotes sycophantic hero worship of those in office, as it will be an uphill task to defeat incumbent president. The party will be challenged to bring out a platform that will send PDP parking from Aso Rock.

Compared with PDP, which appeared to have been born into power and ready to apply all arsenals within their reach to win the race, APC, now increasingly looking like an outsider in the national political recompose, will want to ride upon a revolutionary manifesto represented by Buhari to overthrow the old order. The party will not be discomfited by the discordance with which of many of its conservative but leading lights uncharacteristically flaunt a radical manifesto, nor will it allow the cold war going on within its ranks to slow it down. It will expect that its hope of achieving victory in any coming encounter with the ruling party will triumph over its feeling of massive political incapacitation. The PDP is said to be united by its long stay in office, and the spoils of office that cement that unity. On the other hand, observers fear that APC’s long stay out of office may have become demoralizing, causing its leaders to fret endlessly and to fritter away its strength in meaningless, persistent and debilitating quarrels coming from different political leanings before the merger.

Indeed, many have said that the most pressing task before the APC will be how to select a winning ticket from a political situation that is desirable of change. A former minister of External Affairs, Tom Ikimi, who left the party unceremoniously, reveals that the APC hopes of taking the presidency on winning the Southwest and Northwest votes. This was to find expression on the words of Senator Habu Ibrahim (Katsina) who informed that North West and South West have 48 percent of the registered voters in Nigeria and can confidently work together to wrestle power from whoever. But in opposing Ikimi’s comment, there is nothing wrong with that calculation and cult personality in Nigeria politics, especially if the party thinks the votes from those zones are sufficient for victory and those personalities can sway voters.

Consequently, there is every need for APC to put its house in order to ensure Nigerians it could as well put the nation in order in the event of winning the presidency. Political observers have said that APC should adopt an issue based campaign that will give Nigerians the first hand information on how they intend to govern the country better than the PDP especially now they have a good presidential material in the person of Buhari. With this they stand good of sending PDP to political Golgotha. PDP on its own is trying to use media propaganda to advance its political fortunes as it doesn’t have much to show. It shows that the PDP will definitely rely on APC’s weaknesses to make headway. Their strength will lie on APC’s weakness. But be it as it may, the race for presidency in 2015 promises to be tough.