The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says the country’s external reserves will rise to $51.04 billion in 2026, supported by foreign exchange (FX) reforms.
The forecast was published in the regulator’s recent macroeconomic outlook report for Nigeria.
The CBN also projected the international investment position (IIP) to record a net borrowing position of $69.58 billion in 2026, as attractive yields are anticipated to further boost capital inflows.
The IIP assesses the value and composition of a country’s external financial assets and liabilities. A positive or negative value indicates that a nation is either a creditor or a debtor.
“The IIP is projected to record a net borrowing position of US$69.58 billion in 2026, as attractive yields are anticipated to further boost capital inflows,” the report said.
“Reforms in the foreign exchange market are expected to sustain exchange rate stability, while external reserves are projected to increase to US$51.04 billion.”
The apex bank noted that the positive outlook builds on gains recorded in 2025, when Nigeria posted a balance of payments surplus of $5.8 billion, supported by a rise in external reserves to an estimated $45.01 billion, from $40.19 billion in 2024.
The report said the relative stability in the FX market was driven by domestic reforms, higher capital inflows, export receipts and expanding local refining capacity.
The CBN projected Nigeria’s economic growth rate to rise to 4.49 percent in 2026, driven by structural reforms, easing monetary policy stance, and increased investment in the oil sector.
Headline inflation is also expected to moderate further to an average of 12.94 percent, supported by declining food and petrol prices.
The apex bank said the fiscal outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, with retained revenue and expenditure projected at N35.51 trillion and N47.64 trillion, respectively, resulting in a provisional deficit of N12.14 trillion, or 3.01 percent of GDP.
“Public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected at 34.68 per cent by end-2026, compared with 33.98 per cent as at June 2025, predicated on expected new borrowings,” the report added.
“The positive trend in the external position is expected to be sustained in 2026, supported by strong exports, steady remittances inflow, increased oil & gas output, improved domestic refining capacity and rising global demand from key trading partners.
“The current account surplus is expected to rise to US$18.81 billion, while increased portfolio investment inflows and external borrowings are projected to keep the financial account in a net borrowing position of US$10.15 billion.”
The CBN, however, warned that the outlook is subject to risks, including inflationary pressures from excessive fiscal spending, global financial market shocks, geopolitical tensions, and potential disruptions to crude oil production.
The regulator said the bank would continue to deploy appropriate policy instruments to maintain price stability, support output growth, attract foreign investment and strengthen financial system stability in 2026.
On the global front, the CBN said world economic growth moderated slightly to 3.20 percent in 2025, compared with 3.30 percent in 2024, due to lingering trade tensions and weaker demand in major economies.
“Global inflation moderated to 4.20 per cent, on account of lower energy costs, and the continued normalisation of supply chains,” the regulator added.
“Financial conditions eased in many economies, following moderating inflation, less-restrictive monetary policies, rising investor confidence, and the de-escalation of trade tensions.”
Despite this, the bank said the performance of the Nigerian economy remained strong in 2025, with growth estimated at 3.89 percent, compared with 3.38 percent in 2024.
The performance, the CBN said, was supported by improvement in both the oil and non-oil sectors.
