By Daniel Nduka Okonkwo
Nigeria’s fuel crisis has reached a point where the question is no longer simply how much petrol costs at the pump. The more disturbing question is how much of the Nigerian people can still afford to live after paying for it.
Across the country, petrol prices are rising again, with Abuja motorists now paying around N1,450 per litre at some filling stations. Current reports also indicate prices around N1,430 per litre in Abuja following the latest increase in the gantry price of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery from N1,265 to N1,350 per litre. There are also reports of prices exceeding N1,650 per litre in parts of the North and other remote areas.
For millions of Nigerians, the consequences are no longer abstract economic statistics. They are visible every day in transport fares, food prices, electricity costs, school fees, rents, healthcare bills, and the shrinking purchasing power of ordinary households.
Nigeria is bleeding badly, and the wound is showing up on almost every kitchen table in the country.
The country’s transition to a market-driven petrol pricing system was presented as a painful but necessary reform. Nigerians were told that removing the petrol subsidy would free enormous public resources, strengthen government finances, attract investment, encourage domestic refining, and ultimately create a more sustainable economy.
But more than three years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced the removal of the petrol subsidy on May 29, 2023, an uncomfortable question remains: how much longer must Nigerians continue to pay the price for a promised better tomorrow?
The old subsidy regime was far from perfect. It was expensive, vulnerable to abuse, smuggling, questionable claims, and rent-seeking, while successive governments struggled to demonstrate that the system was delivering value proportionate to its enormous fiscal cost.
The problem, therefore, was never simply whether the old subsidy system should continue indefinitely. The deeper question was what would replace it.
When the subsidy was removed, Nigerians were told that the resulting fiscal space would provide the government with greater resources to invest in infrastructure, social intervention, public services, and economic development.
Nigerians endured the immediate shock. They endured rising transport costs. They endured higher food prices. Businesses adjusted to increased operating costs. Families cut spending. Workers struggled with declining purchasing power. Millions of households were forced to make difficult choices between food, healthcare, education, and transportation.
They were told that the pain would ultimately produce economic gains. That promise now requires measurable evidence.
According to the Federal Government’s 2026 reform scorecard, subsidy reforms generated an estimated N15.8 trillion in savings across the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025. Of that amount, approximately N5.43 trillion accrued to the Federal Government, while states and local governments received the remainder through the Federation’s distribution framework. The Federal Government separately reported N20.4 trillion in incremental resources from subsidy savings, other incremental revenues, and additional borrowing.
Those figures are significant. But fiscal savings and human welfare are not the same thing.
A government can report stronger revenues, improved fiscal balances, and better debt indicators while millions of citizens continue to struggle with the cost of living. The Nigerian citizen is the balance sheet that matters most.
A family cannot cook fiscal consolidation. A worker cannot board a bus with improved government revenue. A farmer cannot transport his harvest with a favourable debt-to-GDP ratio. A child cannot eat macroeconomic stability. This is where the debate over fuel subsidy removal must move beyond politics and economic theory.
The central question should now be straightforward: where did the reported savings go, and what measurable benefit have they produced for Nigerians?
How much of the reported N15.8 trillion in estimated subsidy savings was received by the Federal Government, states, and local governments?
How much of the Federal Government’s reported N5.43 trillion share was spent on infrastructure, healthcare, education, public transportation, social protection, and other programmes intended to cushion the effect of the reform?
How much additional revenue did states and local governments receive, and what did they do with it?
What contracts were funded? Who benefited? What projects were completed?
And, most importantly, what measurable improvement can Nigerians see in their daily lives as a result?
These are not unreasonable questions. They are the natural questions that arise whenever the government asks citizens to make a major sacrifice in the national interest.
Fuel is not an ordinary commodity in Nigeria. It is an economic multiplier. When petrol prices rise, transportation costs rise. When transportation costs rise, food distribution becomes more expensive. When logistics become more expensive, businesses increase prices. When prices rise faster than incomes, purchasing power falls.
The effect, therefore, goes far beyond the price displayed at a filling station. It reaches virtually every sector of the economy.
This is why the argument that market forces should determine petrol prices cannot, by itself, answer the question of how ordinary Nigerians are expected to survive the transition.
If a universal subsidy were considered unsustainable, what would replace the protection it once provided to households?
Is it targeted cash support? Is it affordable and reliable public transportation? Is it food assistance? Is it cheaper electricity? Is it a wage adjustment? Is it expanded healthcare coverage? Is it a combination of these measures?
At some point, the people must see the dividend. Nigeria is an oil-producing country with one of Africa’s largest populations and enormous energy resources. Yet Nigerians continue to confront the paradox of living in an oil-rich country while paying increasingly high prices for the fuel required to move people, goods, and businesses.
The emergence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has changed the country’s refining landscape and reduced dependence on imported refined petroleum products. The refinery represents a major private-sector investment and has the potential to strengthen domestic refining capacity, improve energy security, and alter Nigeria’s position in the regional petroleum market.
Daniel Nduka Okonkwo is an investigative journalist, human rights advocate, and can be reached at dan
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