By Sani Abdullahi
Since its establishment, the Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership has focused on strengthening evidence-based policymaking in Nigeria, particularly in the areas of governance, public administration, and electoral reform. Founded by Chief Osita Chidoka, former Minister of Aviation, erstwhile Corps Marshal of the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), and the Centre’s Chancellor, the institution embodies a clear vision: a Nigeria where policymakers draw on rigorous data, not political impulse, as the foundation for decisions that advance effective leadership and good governance.
The Centre’s core mission is to replace emotional, reactive governance with verifiable research that equips decision-makers with practical, predictive insights. These values anchor a non-partisan drive to identify sustainable solutions to Nigeria’s developmental challenges, particularly in election management, as the foundation for political stability and economic growth.
NIGERIA’S ELECTORAL CRISIS AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY
Nigeria’s struggle with credible elections is not a recent phenomenon. From the post-independence elections of 1964 and 1965, the country has experienced recurring instability tied directly to flawed electoral management, instability that has, at several junctures, collapsed the democratic order entirely as analysed below:
a. The 1965 Western Region Chris:
What Nigerians of that era came to call “Operation Wetie”, a wave of arson, political assassinations, and widespread rioting in the Southwest, was triggered by the gross manipulation and blatant rigging of the 1965 regional elections. The resulting breakdown of law and order provided the pretext for the military coup of January 15, 1966, which ended the First Republic. The unresolved tensions from that coup fuelled the counter-coup of July 1966 and ultimately the Civil War of 1967–1970, a conflict whose human and material toll left permanent scars on the nation’s political consciousness.
b. The Shortlived Second Republic (1979–1983).
Nigeria’s first post-military transition produced a civilian government that lasted barely four years. The Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO) oversaw elections in 1983 widely reported to have been manipulated in favour of the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN), producing landslide results that defied credibility. Mass protests and political violence followed, overwhelming the capacity of state security institutions to maintain order. That vacuum of legitimacy provided the opening for Major General Muhammadu Buhari’s coup on December 31, 1983, and with it, another democratic experiment was terminated.
c. Voter Apathy and the Crisis of the Fourth Republic:
Although the 1999 elections restored civilian rule, subsequent elections, particularly those of 2003 and 2007, drew widespread condemnation. The 2007 polls were characterised by missing ballot papers, arbitrary voter disqualifications, and results announced while voting was still in progress. The scale of the irregularities was such that the declared winner himself, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, acknowledged in his inaugural address that the process that brought him to power was deeply flawed. That extraordinary admission accelerated the push for electoral reform and the eventual introduction of electronic voting technology, most significantly for the 2015 elections.
d. The 2023 IREV/BVAS Technological Failure:
Perhaps no episode better illustrates the fragility of public trust in Nigerian elections than the events surrounding the 2023 presidential poll. INEC had publicly committed to transmitting polling unit results in real-time via its Result Viewing (IReV) portal. When alleged technological failures and operational deviations prevented the timely upload of presidential results, the backlash was swift and severe. The controversy surrounding the failure of real-time result transmission further deepened public distrust in the electoral process and reinforced concerns about institutional credibility.
e. The Growing Judicialisation of Electoral Politics:
The failure of technology to deliver the transparency it promised did not go uncontested. The aftermath exposed another layer of complexity: weak internal party regulations and vague electoral guidelines have created conditions in which aggrieved politicians increasingly turn to courts of concurrent jurisdiction to resolve electoral disputes, contributing to a post-election process in which litigation, rather than the ballot, often has the final word.
f. Armed Thuggery and the Erosion of Electoral Security:
Underlying all of these challenges is the question of physical security. Where institutions fail to command legitimacy, force often fills the vacuum. Sponsored militia groups (some linked directly to state governments) have become fixtures of the Nigerian electoral landscape, deployed to snatch ballot boxes, burn voting centres, and intimidate opponents. Their effectiveness in disrupting elections has made the act of voting, in many parts of the country, an exercise in courage rather than civic routine.
ATHENA’S ELECTORAL REFORM AGENDA
Confronted with this record of recurring institutional failure, the Athena Centre has developed a technology-driven, evidence-anchored reform agenda. Its interventions include:
a. Launch of the Athena Election Observatory (AEO):
The Observatory functions as a permanent, dedicated framework for end-to-end monitoring of the electoral process, covering everything from candidate screening through result collation and post-election adjudication. It publishes verified data analysis to hold institutions accountable and advance concrete reform recommendations ahead of the 2027 general elections.
b. Independence Post- Election Audits and Result Digitisation:
Athena deployed technical teams during critical electoral cycles to conduct parallel audits of INEC’s processes. During the 2024 Edo State governorship election, over 100 staff and volunteers were deployed to download, digitise, and verify polling unit results directly from the IReV portal on election night. The Centre also conducted similar comprehensive post-election reviews for the Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi governorship elections of 2023, cross-examining recorded irregularities with primary data.
c. A Landmark Decade Long Review of Electoral Technology:
In October 2025, Athena hosted a major national dialogue: “Innovation in Electoral Technology 2015–2025: Gains, Gaps, and the Road Ahead.” The event launched an exhaustive ten-year study evaluating the performance and limitations of tools including the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the IReV portal, providing one of the most extensive independent assessments of Nigeria’s electoral technology ecosystem to date.
d. Reframing the he Electoral Integrity Conversation:
Perhaps the Centre’s most distinctive contribution is conceptual rather than technical. Through its research publications, Athena has helped shift public discourse beyond polling unit fraud to what it terms the Legitimacy Paradox. The argument runs as follows: technology such as BVAS has measurably improved accreditation and reduced voting-day manipulation, yet public trust in elections has not risen proportionately. Why? Because legitimacy is no longer primarily contested at the polling unit. It is contested afterward, in the collation of results, the transparency of aggregation, the clarity of official communication, and the credibility of dispute resolution. A process can be technically sound at the point of voting and still fail to produce a legitimate outcome if what happens next is opaque or contested. This distinction matters because it relocates the reform conversation. Where most election observer groups concentrate their attention on ballot snatching, voter intimidation, and accreditation fraud, all real and serious problems, Athena’s research suggests that the next frontier of electoral integrity in Nigeria lies further down the chain, in how results move from the polling unit to the declared outcome, and in how citizens are kept informed along the way. It is a genuinely original framing, and one with direct implications for how INEC, political parties, and civil society should allocate their attention ahead of 2027.
e. Campaign Finance Reform and Digital Accountability
Drawing on data revealing the hidden costs embedded in Nigeria’s campaigns, Athena has introduced a Campaign Integrity and Transparency framework that calls for digital accountability in political financing. The proposal would legally require political actors to disclose digital advertising metadata, enabling regulators to track covert online spending, curb premature campaigning, and close the loopholes that currently allow money to flow through the electoral system without scrutiny.
CONCLUSION
At its core, the electoral question is a legitimacy question. Citizens are more willing to obey laws, pay taxes, and cooperate with public institutions when they believe political authority is derived from a process that is transparent, credible, and fair. Elections that fail this test do not merely produce disputed winners; they erode the broader compact between citizens and the state.
Nigeria cannot build a prosperous economy on a fragile democratic foundation. Electoral legitimacy is the precondition, not the by-product, of political stability, investor confidence, and accountable governance.
By combining rigorous research, technology audits, policy advocacy, and institutional monitoring, the Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership seeks not merely to document Nigeria’s electoral challenges but to contribute the practical, evidence-based solutions that a functioning democracy demands. The work is urgent. The 2027 elections are approaching. And the gap between the democracy Nigerians deserve and the one they have experienced for too long remains the defining challenge of this moment.
Sani Abdullahi is Adviser, Editorial and Thought Support at the Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership.
