Group says IMF’s 3.4% economic growth projection misrepresents Nigeria’s potential

Mariam Abeeb

The Tinubu Media Support Group (TMSG), says the recently revised economic growth projection for Nigeria by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under-represents the country’s economic capacity and potential.

The group’s position is contained in a statement jointly signed by its Chairman, Emeka Nwankpa, and Secretary, Dapo Okubanjo, which was made available in Abuja.

The IMF’s revised economic outlook projects a Gross Domestic Growth (GDP) growth rate of 3.4 per cent for 2025, up from earlier forecasts of 3.2 per cent in April 2024 and 3.0 per cent in April 2025.

While acknowledging recent policy reforms and improvements in oil production, the IMF cautioned that on a per capita basis, Nigeria’s economic growth remains low.

It also highlighted vulnerabilities stemming from declining oil prices, persistent inflation, and widespread poverty.

The Fund recommended that Nigeria should focus on building fiscal buffers, scaling up targeted cash transfers, maintaining tight monetary policy, and pursuing further structural reforms to ensure more inclusive and sustainable growth.

The group expressed confidence that the economic reform policies of President Bola Tinubu’s administration would reposition Nigeria’s economy for long-term stability and growth.

“We are not totally surprised that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has had to improve its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025 to 3.4 per cent from its earlier projection of three per cent.

“The global body, in its Article IV consultation report with Nigeria, projected a 3.4 per cent economic growth for the country, a few months after it had projected 3.2 per cent, which it later reduced to three per cent.

“It didn’t come to us as a surprise that the IMF upgraded its forecast.

“ This is because we were convinced that the economic reform of Tinubu’s administration are gradually bearing fruit as reflected in the manner the economy grew in the last quarter of 2024.

“We recall that Nigeria recorded a GDP growth of 3.84 per cent in the fourth quarter of that year in what was clearly the fastest pace since 2021 to prove the IMF’s 2024 3.2 per cent projection wrong,” the group stated.

The group recalled that experts had earlier raised concerns about the IMF’s initial three per cent projection for 2025.

According to the group, the experts caution that forecasting a major decline in Nigeria’s economy based solely on oil prices overlooks the country’s ongoing efforts to diversify its revenue sources.

“TMSG also referenced the view of the lead economist at ECOWAS, Prof. Ken Ife, who had publicly criticised the IMF’s earlier forecast, stating that the institution does not understand Nigeria’s economic structure.

“We hope that the global body will make haste to adjust its three per cent growth forecast for 2026.

“This is especially as it recently commended the Tinubu administration on the new Tax reforms, which will take effect in January 2026.”