By Abubakar Yunusa
Nigeria’s declining inflation rate could ease cost-of-living pressures and strengthen economic stability if the trend is sustained, the International Monetary Fund has said.
The IMF’s Resident Representative for Nigeria, Christian Ebeke, made this known while reacting to the latest inflation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
On Thursday, the NBS reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 15.15 per cent in December 2025, signalling a slowdown in price increases.
Ebeke described the development as a positive signal for the economy, noting that a sustained decline would offer relief to households grappling with rising living costs.
“We welcome the December Consumer Price Index inflation figures released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, which show an easing of inflation that, if sustained, will help reduce cost-of-living pressures and support macroeconomic stability,” the IMF said.
The Fund also praised Nigeria’s revised inflation measurement approach, describing it as a critical step towards improving data quality and credibility.
The NBS recently adopted a 12-month reference period for 2024 after rebasing the Consumer Price Index, replacing the previous single-month approach.
The change, according to the bureau, was aimed at reducing exaggeration in inflation readings and ensuring more accurate price measurement.
The IMF said the adjustment aligns Nigeria’s inflation calculation with global standards and best practices.
“The release reflects a welcome change in methodology that aligns Nigeria’s CPI calculation with international best practices, as set out by ECOWAS and the IMF’s 2020 CPI Manual,” the Fund said.
It added that the NBS now links the old CPI series with the rebased and reweighted index using 2024 as the reference year, improving data stability and comparability over time.
According to the IMF, although Nigeria’s inflation figures for 2025 were revised following the methodological changes, the overall trend still showed a steady decline throughout the year.
The Fund noted that this trend provides a clearer picture of inflation dynamics and supports better economic analysis and policy planning.
Earlier, the NBS had cautioned that changes to the base year could affect short-term inflation readings.
On January 12, the bureau projected a temporary “artificial spike” in the December 2025 inflation figure due to adjustments in the reference period.
The Statistician-General of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran, explained that the spike would stem from the base-year adjustment rather than actual price pressures in the economy.
He said the revised methodology was necessary to reflect current consumption patterns and ensure that inflation data remains relevant and reliable.
Economists say consistent inflation moderation, alongside credible data reforms, could boost investor confidence and improve policy effectiveness.
However, they stress that sustaining the gains will depend on disciplined fiscal management, stable exchange rates and continued efforts to address structural challenges in the economy.
