IMF tips Nigeria to become Africa’s third-largest economy in 2026

By Abubakar Yunusa

Nigeria has been ranked Africa’s fourth-largest economy in 2025 but is projected to rise to third place in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, October 2025 edition, showed that Nigeria’s gross domestic product stood at about $285bn in 2025.
The figure placed the country behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria.
South Africa topped the chart with an estimated GDP of $426bn, followed by Egypt at $349bn, while Algeria ranked third with $288bn.
However, the IMF projected that Nigeria would overtake Algeria in 2026 as economic output rebounds.
The Fund attributed the expected rise to higher oil production, improved foreign exchange liquidity and the impact of ongoing economic reforms.
IMF projections showed Nigeria’s GDP increasing to about $334bn in 2026, ahead of Algeria’s $284bn.
South Africa and Egypt are forecast to retain the first and second positions with GDP estimates of $443bn and $399bn respectively.
The Bretton Woods institution said recent reforms, including petrol subsidy removal, exchange rate liberalisation and fiscal adjustments, would support medium-term growth, despite short-term inflationary pressures.
Nigeria’s economic ranking has fluctuated in recent years due to currency devaluations, GDP rebasing and broader macroeconomic challenges across Africa.
On January 19, the IMF revised Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth forecast upward to 4.4 per cent from 4.2 per cent.
Similarly, the World Bank, on January 13, increased its 2026 growth projection for Nigeria to 4.4 per cent, up from the 3.7 per cent forecast made in June 2025.