By Mustapha Adamu
The Governor of Kano State, Abba Kabir Yusuf, is seeking for re-election in 2027, this time around, not under his long-term political camp, the Kwankwasiyya Movement.
The governor had parted ways with his political godfather and former Governor of the State, Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso early this year.
Kwankwaso annointed Yusuf as the Kano gubernatorial candidate in 2019 and 2023 under the platforms of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) respectively.
In January this year, crisis broke out between the two political associates as Governor Yusuf brought to an end, the 40- year relationship with the former d
Defense Minister, bringing new political era in the state.
The governor joined the All Progressives Congress (APC), the party he defeated in the 2023 gubernatorial election.
However, as the governorship campaign for the 2027 election kicked off last Wednesday, the question that is on the lips of the Kano people is can governor Yusuf win the election outside the Kwankwasiyya movement.
For the first time since his defection to the APC, the governor will come face-to-face with his former boss, who has fielded Comrade Aminu Abdulsalam as the governorship candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) for the 2027 election.
Observers are of the opinion that Yusuf, despite being the incumbent governor, would face fierce battle with his former deputy, who rides on the influence of Kwankwaso to emerge as the NDC’s candidate.
Political observers also hold the opinion that the APC, especially its president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is losing popularity in Kano and Northern Nigeria as a result of the president’s policies that gave rise to high cost of living and inability to check insecurity in the region.
According to some observers, Governor Yusuf won first leg of the election, the 2019 election with the margin of 36,000 votes before it was turned down when the contest went to the second round. But in 2023, the governor won the election again, all under the influence of Kwankwaso, who has the grip of the larger chunk of the voters.
Therefore, political observers are saying that the voters would still vote for Kwankwaso’s annointed candidate in the 2027.
However, some observers are of the opinion that Governor Yusuf would win the election in view of the incumbency factor as well as the backing of the President.
They said Governor Yusuf will win the election even without the support of the President, given his drive to bring even development through projects and good governance which would favour him to defeat his former boss in the election.
There are ongoing road and other infrastructure projects in the state, empowerment programmes, agricultural drive and commitment to the development of education in the state.
These factors, in addition to the fact that the APC holds all the senators, over 20 house of representatives members that followed the governor to the ruling party, 44 Local government Chairmen, over 30 members of the house of assembly and 484 councilors would give an edge to the governor over his opponents.
On the other hand, despite the relative popularity of the Alliance for Democratic Congress (ADC), in the country, its presence in Kano state is nothing to write home about.
The ADC, as it is today, has not formally declared its governorship candidate in the state, but Ibrahim Al-Amin Little is parading himself as the party’s flag bearer in the forthcoming election.
Little has little political prowess compared to Governor Yusuf and Abdulsalam.
Despite the influence of the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, observers hold the opinion that Little does not have the political metle to face Governor Yusuf and Abdulsalam.
That is the reason why observers say the battle for Kano’s hot seat is between the APC and NDC come 2027.
Speaking to our correspondent, the Director General, Media and Publicity, Kano Government House, Sanusi Bature Dawakin-Tofa, described the forthcoming election as a walkover for the ruling APC in view of its strength and consolidation in the state.
According to Dawakin-Tofa, the political realignment when governor Yusuf defected to APC with over 70 percent of the Kwankwasiyya followers, coupled with the number of the party’s legacy members, had given it the edge over the oppositions to win the election.
Dawakin-Tofa also highlighted that APC had a strong chance to win the election in Kano in view of the fact that all the political bigwigs are in the party.
“ All the who-is-who in Kano politics are in APC. We have serving and former governors, senators, deputy governors, with the exception of one, ministers, legislators and so on, they are all in APC.
“As you can see, the NDC is weakend by crisis ahead of the election. The disgruntled contestants, who were denied the party’s ticket are joining APC. This will definitely give the party an edge in the 2027 election. The election is a walkover for our great party APC.
“ Most importantly, looking at the massive infrastructure development being executed by His Excellency, the Executive Governor of Kano State, where he is changing Kano with pro-masses policies, this has made the citizens to decide for continuity in the 2027 election.
“So, no opposition candidate can match governor Abba Kabir Yusuf’s chance to win the election,” the governor’s spokesman said.
But for Ibrahim Garba Shuaibu, the spokesman of the NDC gubernatorial candidate, Comrade Aminu Abdulsalam, his boss, the immediate past deputy governor of the state, has the better chance to win the 2027 election in the state.
Shuaibu’s reason, according to him, is “simple”, the APC has failed to provide the promised leadership and development to Nigerians, as such, according to him, the people of the country are not ready to vote for the ruling party again.
He also argued that the incumbency factor would not work this time around, as according to him, the people are tired of the style of leadership by the APC government, as such, the voters could not be influenced to vote for the ruling party come 2027.
“Let me be clear: I am confident the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has a strong chance of winning the 2027 governorship election in Kano State.
“The reason is simple: the APC has failed to provide the leadership and development to the Nigerians. The incumbency factor won’t influence voters in 2027,” he said.
Shuaibu rather said, “People will overwhelmingly support the NDC. Kano residents dislike the APC, and no factor can change their minds from voting for the NDC,”.
When contacted, the Publicity Secretary of the APC in Kano, Hon. Auwalu Soja Sani-Mainagge opined that the ruling party has taken over almost the entire political structure of the state.
He also said, every indication and opportunity that points towards electoral victory is currently in favour of the APC, noting that all the strong political camps are in the APC.
“As you already know, here in Kano State, the APC has almost completely taken over the state. Every indication and opportunity that points towards electoral victory is currently in favour of the APC.
“First, if we talk about the major political camps in Kano, you could say there are the Shekarau camp, the Kwankwaso camp and the Ganduje camp, even without mentioning the incumbent governor. Both the Shekarau and Ganduje camps are now in the APC,” he said.
Furthermore, according to Sani-Mainagge, Governor Yusuf has taken about 80 per cent of the Kwankwasiyya camp with him, leaving about 20 per cent behind, which he said, traditionally, there have been three major political camps in Kano: Gandujiyya, Kwankwasiyya and Shekarau.
“If you assess the situation, Barau Jibrin has considerable influence in Kano North. The Deputy Governor also comes from the area, as does the Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations, Abba Bichi. All of them are from the same area.
“In Southern Kano, Kawu Sumaila has significant political influence. There are also Alhassan Rirum and Abdulmuminu Kofa, who are influential political figures with considerable clout.
“In Kano Central , there are also major political figures, including the Governor himself.
“Honestly, this political structure of the APC appears to give the party confidence and a strong chance of winning the 2027 election,” he said.
For Hon. Yusuf Rabi’u Fasaha, the Publicity Secretary of the NDC in Kano, wrote off the APC’s chance to win the forthcoming governorship election in Kano.
In an interview with our correspondent, Fasaha highlighted six factors that would not favor the ruling party to win the election.
According to him, the APC government in Kano and Nigeria has failed to fulfill its promises to the people in the area of good governance.
“ APC’s failure in the 2027 election in Kano will be on six factors. Number one, we are talking about bad governance, including embezzlement of public resources.
“ Kano is facing security challenges under this government. This is in addition to scarcity of water that the government had promised to fix since its inception.
“ The decay in education, economy and healthcare alone is enough to bring this government down. Even at the national level, the party is riddle with crises and it can not manage the security and economy of the country.
“ There are a lot of factors if i may tell you. Let me tell you that by betraying our leader, Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, governor Abba will fail the election.
“ I am optimistic that the NDC will beat the APC by like 98 percent to 12 percent in the forthcoming 2027 election,” said Fasaha.
Fasaha alleged that there are ongoing crises within the APC in Kano between the governor Yusuf camps and the legacy members of the party, which he said would play a big role towards the failure of the party in the election.
All efforts to reach the spokesman of the ADC in Kano were unsuccessful as at the time of filing this report.
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