INEC and the Danger of Predictable Elections

The Independent National Electoral Commission is already on trial, and the 2027 general elections have not even begun. The evidence is written in the results of local government polls across Nigeria, even though ttey are not directly conducted by INEC. From the Federal Capital Territory council elections to contests in nearly every state, the party in government sweeps the ballots with a predictability that no longer shocks the public. The recent uproar in Adamawa, where ADC candidates rejected LG election results and demanded a fresh poll, is not an anomaly. It is the latest reminder of a national pattern that deepens citizens’ discontent and chips away at faith in the ballot.

Local elections should be the foundation for credible national polls. Instead, they have become a warning. When state electoral commissions routinely return total victories for incumbents, they teach voters that outcomes are fixed before the first ballot is cast. That lesson breeds apathy, suspicion, and anger. None of those outcomes serve democracy. This newspaper has maintained that Nigeria’s elections remain unsafe. Unsafe for the voter who fears violence, unsafe for the official who fears for his life, and unsafe for a system that cannot withstand another cycle of disputed results.

The danger of predictable elections is that they hollow out participation before 2027 arrives. Citizens who watch council polls turn into endorsements begin to question the point of voting in gubernatorial or presidential contests. The distance from “why bother” to open hostility is shorter than we admit. We saw a glimpse of that in Ekiti, where the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission is now searching for voters who reportedly chased its operatives from polling units. That scene, widely shared, points to a deeper erosion of trust between citizens and the institutions charged with protecting their vote.

This is INEC’s problem even when INEC does not conduct the election. The commission sets the national standard for electoral integrity. When state-run polls consistently produce clean sweeps, the public does not draw a neat line between SIECs and INEC. The stain spreads. Critics have long identified “boobytraps in Nigeria’s Constitution” that undermine accountability. We cannot allow captured local elections to become another of those traps. If every council poll ends with the ruling party taking all, the issue is structural. It suggests that state electoral bodies lack the independence to deliver credible contests, and that INEC’s limited role in local polls leaves a gap too wide for public confidence.

So the burden falls on INEC to lead, not just to react. First, the commission should audit and publish a full review of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the INEC Result Viewing Portal from recent off-cycle elections. Technology must be transparent if it is to inspire trust. Second, electoral offenses need consequences. The spectacle of officials being chased from polling units cannot end as online content. Prosecution is the clearest deterrent. Third, Nigeria must revisit who runs local polls. As long as governors appoint the umpires for council elections, the clean sweep syndrome will persist and taint every election that follows.

Abuja has to reckon with its own record. The FCT’s council elections followed the same sweeping trend, and that weakens its moral authority to demand reform elsewhere. If the seat of power cannot model credible local polls, it becomes harder to insist on them in the states.

The 2027 elections will test INEC’s competence, the neutrality of security agencies, and the resilience of public trust. Predictable elections are a signal, not background noise. The responsible path is to read it, heed it, and fix it.

Nigeria has seen too many elections end in courtrooms instead of celebrations. There is still time to change the story. To ignore these patterns now is to prepare for crisis later. To address them is to choose stability, and that is the quiet work of patriotism.