A North Korean satellite launched in 2016 will end its space odyssey and fall toward Earth on Friday, experts forecast.
The Kwangmyongsong-4 (KMS-4) satellite is likely to completely burn up within a few minutes after entering the atmosphere, without posing any significant risk to aircraft or people on the ground, according to Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
“It is certainly now a matter of hours,” he told NK News at 11 a.m. KST on Friday, adding that “there is only a small chance that some very small bits of debris will reach the surface.”
North Korea launched the KMS-4 “Earth observation” satellite aboard an Unha-3 rocket from the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground complex in Feb. 2016. But despite placing the satellite into orbit, Pyongyang’s claims about the satellite’s functionality have remained largely unverified.
Shortly after the launch, the U.N. Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 2270 prohibiting the DPRK from engaging in technical cooperation with other countries on launches involving ballistic missile technology, including for its space program.
Marco Langbroek, a lecturer at Delft Technical University, forecast earlier that the satellite would reenter the atmosphere at approximately 1:25 p.m. KST (4:25 UTC) on Friday. According to his estimates, the satellite was expected to fall somewhere over East Asia, the Americas or Antarctica.
As of Friday afternoon, U.S. and South Korean authorities had not released any information on the satellite reentering the atmosphere.
According to the satellite tracking portal N2YO, the KMS-4 was at an altitude of around 97.5 miles (156.9 km) at 4:38 p.m. KST and was rapidly descending.
“We won’t know [the reentry location] until after the reentry occurs, and maybe not then,” McDowell noted, adding that KMS-4 is traveling at 17,000 miles per hour.
“If you are one hour off in the estimated reentry time, then you are 17,000 miles off in the location.”
The U.S. Space Force, McDowell said, will likely be able to announce only an approximate time range of the satellite’s reentry, after one of its military radars fails to detect the satellite passing over.
“In the best case, one of the DSP/SBIRS infrared satellites will detect the infrared flare as the satellite burns up, and we’ll get an accurate reentry time and location.”
The Space-based Infrared System (SBIRS) is a network of satellites positioned in geosynchronous orbit and high elliptical orbit with control centers tasked with providing early missile warning. It is set to replace the aging Defense Support Program (DSP) satellite constellation.
The KMS-4 is not the only “observation” satellite Pyongyang has placed in orbit over the years. After a series of failed attempts, North Korea launched the Kwangmyongsong-3-2 (KMS-3-2) on Dec. 12, 2012 marking its first success in orbital entry since the outset of the Kwangmyongsong satellite program in the 1990s.
Langbroek told NK News that he expects the KMS-3-2, which is still in orbit, to “reenter the atmosphere in September or October of this year.” McDowell confirmed this estimate saying the satellite will likely hit the atmosphere within a few months.
The lifetime of satellites depends on “the initial orbital altitude and the timing within the 11-year solar cycle, which affects the density of the upper atmosphere,” McDowel added.
“We are now approaching solar maximum (period of heightened solar activity), and lots of low orbit satellites will reenter in the next few years.”
The news about the pending crash of the KMS-4 comes as North Korea prepares the Sohae launchpad for another satellite launch, after it failed to place a military spy satellite in orbit in late May.
Source: https://www.nknews.org/2023/06/north-korean-satellite-to-fall-toward-earth-after-7-years-in-space-experts-say/
