Monday Column By Hameed M. Bello, PhD
hamdbelo@yahoo.co.uk
Intelligence sharing among friendly sovereign nations, as an instrument of diplomacy and international relations, can be a useful mechanism in preempting, preventing or mitigating incidences of terrorism across borders to pave way for a more peaceful, more secure world where international transactions can proceed without hindrance. This is more so because terror threat to any nation is surely threat to all nations due to the international dimensions of terrorism in relation to the increasing globalisation and constructive engagement among countries of the world.
It is in that respect that the recent terror alert by the American authorities, subsequently backed by those of the UK, and the following advisory to their citizens and workers to leave Nigeria, can be considered as some useful intelligence, since they claim to be in the know of some clandestine plot by terrorists to attack some public institutions and key public places.
Governments of the United Kingdom and the United States, had penultimate week, updated their travel advisories following terror alerts they earlier issued, warning their citizens against travelling to Nigeria’s capital, Abuja. They did so in the wake of an alleged increased threat of terrorist attacks on the seat of power.
In a dramatic twist, after it issued a terrorist attack alert in Nigeria, the US Government on Wednesday October 26 notified its citizens that insurgents were planning an attack on large gatherings in Johannesburg, South Africa. “The U.S. government has received information that terrorists may be planning to conduct an attack targeting large gatherings of people at an unspecified location in the greater Sandton area of Johannesburg, South Africa, on 29 October 2022, “ a US authority statement was quoted as saying.
In a swift reaction on Thursday, October 27, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa regretted as “unfortunate” the US embassy’s issuing of a warning of a possible weekend “terrorist” attack in the country without consulting his government.
“It is quite unfortunate the US issued that type of warning without having any type of discussion with us,” Ramaphosa said during a press conference.
The suspected attack did not happen as predicted because we did not hear of any – Perhaps it might have been preempted and mitigated, who knows, because the US is too sophisticated to issue a terror alert based on absolute falsehood. It could be ridiculous if it turns out to be so.
Whether the US intelligence which saw the suspected attack on Abuja coming was shared or not with relevant Nigerian authorities before they were publicized deserves interrogation. This is because the alarm prompted unwarranted hysteria – fear and panic among Nigerians, and to some extent it adversely affected business operations in the country, as some big business places had to shut down as precautionary measure, even though the advisory was supposedly meant to ensure the security of nationals of the USA.
In the wake of the advisory, President Muhammadu Buhari required Nigerians to “stay calm but be vigilant”, according to a statement by his spokesperson, Garba Shehu. Buhari advised “the nation’s security establishment and entire citizens to continue being vigilant and careful with security, saying it is important to avoid panic.” The president, however, said the advisories the United Kingdom and US governments gave out did not mean “attack in Abuja is imminent.” The president however did not confirm or dispute whether the USA and the UK had earlier shared their fears of terror attack in the nation’s capital with him or other authorities of the Nigerian government before going public with it. Those facts are not in the public domain as far as we know.
Also, the comments of the National Security Adviser, NSA, Babagana Monguno after the security meeting called over the alert, and that of the Minister of Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Mohammed both conveyed disappointment and pain. Top government officials including the NSA, defense chief, head of national intelligence, and foreign affairs minister, held a joint session with journalists last Monday soon after the meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari. The NSA, Babagana Monguno, addressed journalists after the Monday meeting:
“We’re trying as much as possible within the domestic situation to work with our foreign partners without giving the impression that Nigeria is skating on thin ice and we’re about to implode. I’ll want to dispel any illusion about heightened sense of insecurity. It is false, it is irresponsible…,” Monguno was quoted as saying.
Similarly, Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Mohammed said separately that the Federal Government won’t be stampeded by the terror advisories released by the governments of the United States and the United Kingdom:
“Nigeria will not be stampeded by whatever any government decides to tell its people living in Abuja and parts of the country.” Lai Mohammed spoke Wednesday during a briefing after the Federal Executive Council meeting chaired by the Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. He was quoted as saying that the US acted within her rights to advise her citizens to go home but Nigeria won’t be stampeded by such warning or action.
He said that the government had in the last few months taken a firm handle of security, urging citizens to avoid liking or sharing materials that could incite panic.
If the terror alert was ‘false’ as suggested by the NSA Monguno who is in a position to know, what will be the motivation of the foreign powers in sending out a ‘false’ terror alert on Nigeria. The suspected attack in Abuja, just like that predicted in South Africa, did not happen either, because we did not hear of any – Perhaps it, too, could have been preempted and mitigated.
The US and the UK know full well the implications of sending out security-based intelligence to the civil public on socio-political threats, and the adverse effect it could have on Nigeria’s economy. Besides, the alert is coming on the verge of the general elections billed to hold in February and March 2023. Any ‘false’ terror alert released unclothed to the civil public rather than sharing and managing same discretely with the local intelligence community could potentially harm our electoral process by instigating voter apathy. As a promoter of good governance and democracy worldwide, I doubt if the US authorities, and even the UK which colonized Nigeria, will deliberately manufacture ‘lies’ to spread fake news to undermine the country’s smooth electoral process. Nigeria and South Africa are the two biggest economies in Africa, and have both separately received the terror alert from the US and the UK. It is dramatic that the political capitals of two leading economies in Africa – Abuja and Johannesburg – have been ‘uncovered’ by foreign powers to be targeted for attack by terrorists.
I know for a fact there is an existing U.S. Security Cooperation with Nigeria as detailed in a Bureau of Political-Military Affairs fact sheet of April 14, 2022 published by the US Department of State, equivalent to Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The fact sheet shows that for more than 50 years, the United States and Nigeria have enjoyed a strong security partnership and friendship. The U.S.-Nigeria relationship is among the most important in sub-Saharan Africa, given Nigeria’s status as Africa’s most populous country, largest economy, leading oil producer, and our shared democratic values. The United States works closely with Nigeria, both bilaterally and through regional and multilateral fora like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh/ISIS , and the African Union. The fact sheet further shows that Nigeria-US joint efforts are focused on increasing cooperation on maritime and border security, military professionalization, counterterrorism efforts against Boko Haram and ISIS-West Africa, defense trade, and strengthening governance of the security sector.
Given these lofty goals envisaged in the bilateral security relations between Nigeria and the US, it is expected that rather than only withdrawing their citizens from Nigeria on account of a suspected plot of terror attack, the US ought to have gone a step further to release a joint pact with Nigeria on how to nip in the bud and resolve such a threat in view of their sophisticated intelligence and military capabilities. By asking their citizens to leave Nigeria, it is like saying to Nigerians, ‘you can carry your cross alone, afterall we have evacuated our citizens from your terror-prone country, so we don’t care whatever happens.’ This type of attitude seems incongruent with the letter and spirit of the existing bilateral security relations between the two countries earlier cited.
Meanwhile, our politicians including some presidential candidates have been busy holding meetings with foreign partners including those of the US in a bid to sell themselves, their parties and programmes ahead the 2023 elections. They ought to mind their comments at such meetings so that they do not cast the country they plan to govern in bad light. They must not scare the same foreign powers that they want to fraternize with once in power. It is like wanting to eat your cake and have it without minding the social crisis that such a double standard could plunge the country into.
