Russia’s roadmap to Nigeria, ECOWAS and Africa

By Professor Maurice Okoli

The growing US-China rivalry and Russia-Western allies’ geopolitical tension have shaken the international peace and security system’s foundation and significantly shaped Russia’s diplomacy with Africa. While that seems to be the general trend across the board, the Federal Republic of Nigeria is also getting highly renewed attention from Moscow. Historically Nigeria, like a number of African states, has had relations from the Soviet times and still maintains traditional relationships after the Soviet’s collapse in 1991. Nevertheless, it is interesting to explicitly note that a new wave of democratic change has also blown all over Africa. We can convincingly point to the fact that old ideological friends of the Soviet Union changed camps and transformed in favour of the capitalist-democratic model, in line with the changing political dynamics inside Africa and around the world.
In pursuit of its foreign policy agenda, the Soviet Union maintained diplomatic relations between Nigeria and many on the continent. There were 48 diplomatic offices across Africa. Nigeria established diplomatic relations on November 25, 1960, after it had attained political independence from Britain. The mission was formally opened in 1961.
There are noticeable bits of historical landmarks between Nigeria and Russia. Olusegun Obasanjo visited Russia in 2001. That was followed by Muhammadu Buhari in 2019. However, in June 2009, Dmitry Medvedev, president of Russia, visited Nigeria for the first time and held topmost state-level talks on possible nuclear energy, oil exploration and military cooperation. There were talks also focusing on establishing a petrochemical plant in Nigeria. There was also a declaration on principles of friendly relations and partnership between Nigeria and the Russian Federation.
Russia’s second-largest oil company, and privately controlled Lukoil, has gone back and forth these several years with plans to expand its operations in Nigeria and several West African countries. There has been a long-dead silence after Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, signed an agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) on the exploration and exploitation of gas reserves with a new joint venture company known as NiGaz Energy Company.
Despite the complexities and obstacles, Nigeria is still high on Russia’s agenda for reviving multifaceted business ties, at least to share the market and take up opportunities similar to external players such as the United States, Europe and China. We sincerely acknowledge efforts by Russians now gearing up to revamp the Ajaokuta Iron and Steel Complex, which was abandoned after the collapse of the Soviet Union three decades ago, and further take up energy, oil and gas projects in Nigeria, as well as facilitate trade between Nigeria and Russia.
Further to the above, there could be specific points of focus in the current relations: The strategic point of convergence between Moscow and Abuja is stability in the West African region, which is vital for both countries in their interests. It could best be achieved through ensuring security, boosting economic development, expanding tentacles in energy and infrastructure projects and raising cooperation with the regional bloc – the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Suffice it to say that Russia’s passion for humanitarian cooperation is strongly recommended here. This will help sustain its traditional sphere of influence in the western region of Africa. The main reasons are that Nigeria is considered the economic powerhouse. Ghana now hosts the headquarters of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), spanning 54 states over the next years with the potential to unite more than 1.3 billion people in a $2.5 trillion economic bloc. It has the potential to generate a range of benefits through supporting trade creation, structural transformation, productive employment and poverty reduction. The AfCFTA opens up more opportunities for both local African and foreign investors from around the world.
Both African and foreign policy experts argue that African countries need to support meaningful dialogue and take steps toward addressing the economic dimensions in the continent and this must necessarily reflect in their relations with potential external partners while, at the same time, maintaining their territorial integrity and political independence. We strongly believe that African economic diplomacy and partnerships could be raised to appreciably new levels the Russia-Africa relations. This is where I shared my views with both foreign and our African experts that these measures will contribute tremendously, in pursuit of the economic integration of our continent, towards the attainment of the well-known vision: Agenda 2063, the Africa We Want.
Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa are the biggest economies on the continent, and Nigeria, for example, plays a major role in the West African region. The Nigerian economy is based on private enterprise, but the state participates in many ways. That is why Russia has to redirect its focus to the private sector to enhance its economic profile. In this case, Nigeria, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) and other countries have enormous potential to cooperate with Russia in the West African region. According to reports, on different occasions, former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo expressed keen interest in developing bilateral cooperation and spoke frankly about the need to increase the presence of Russian companies in Nigeria.
Three key factors are at work here for Russia to get a foothold in West Africa. First, Russia is seen as the provider of security, and Russia’s defence capabilities continue to play a crucial role in maintaining stability in the region. One more point here is the French-speaking Sahel-5 (Burkina et al.) is nearly under the control of Russia. Reports pointed out that cooperation among forces from the so-called G5 countries – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger – remains difficult given the anti-French sentiments in the country, forcing under-equipped local armies to quickly step up their game against Islamist rebels in the volatile Sahel region.
With high interest, Russians are consistently pushing for military-technical cooperation. For Nigeria, Russian military equipment supply could be a high-value addition to the fight against the notorious Boko Haram, which threatens West African states. Many experts say conflict resolution should be coordinated and undertaken within the framework of multilateralism, which, of course, falls within Russia’s interest in forging relations with respective Security Councils of ECOWAS, the African Union and the United Nations.
Second, an opportunity to have market access to the West African region if potential Russian investors decide to locate some kind of production with the rules and regulations put in place under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Unlike Russia, United States investors look forward to exploring several opportunities in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a policy signed by African countries to make the continent a single market. Russian investors could similarly pursue public-private partnerships that support Russian and African businesses, including women-owned and led Small- and Medium-Scale Enterprises (SMEs).
Third, to carefully look at optional ways of utilizing civil society and private sector organizations. If Russia wants to play a pivotal role in advancing its economic influence, it has to navigate, leverage or make inroads into the private sector. Understanding these factors is crucial in formulating policies and appropriate mechanisms for realizing them. Worth to say that efficiency and effectiveness must reflect in its policy implementation. On the other hand, the shifting geopolitical landscape dictates new refined strategies. It also implies the ability to choose the multi-alignment dimension of countries rather than just dealing with a few in the region.
Notwithstanding multiple challenges with pursuing general policy goals in Africa, I would also note here in this article that Russia has maintained a traditional friendship, particularly with Nigeria and broadly with West Africa, so it is important that some focus be given to issues raised here at the forthcoming Russia-Africa summit. The critical focus areas are agriculture, energy, oil and gas, telecommunications, healthcare, transport, financing, marine exploration, aerospace, and other areas where Russian technology can have a comparative advantage.
Many Russian companies such as Lukoil, Gazprom, Rosatom and Rosneft are some of Russia’s energy and power industries actively engaged in Nigeria, Egypt, Angola, Algeria and Ethiopia. It must be stressed that in 2018, “Nigerian oil and gas Exploration Company Oranto Petroleum announced that it would be cooperating with Russia’s largest oil producer, Rosneft, to develop 21 oil assets across 17 African countries.” Unfortunately, this has not materialized due to Rosneft’s lack of interest in doing business in Africa. Additionally, Russian Rosatom has signed nuclear energy agreements with 18 African countries, including Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia and Rwanda, to address the power needs of those countries.
*By Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies.