The Middle East NATO: Fact or fiction?

By Mohamed Chtatou

Saudi Arabia, a major Arab power, has not signed a peace treaty with Israel and does not maintain diplomatic relations with it. However, some Saudi defense analysts have no doubt that Riyadh could become part of MEAD, provided the United States resolves all its outstanding disputes with the Kingdom and resumes its role as guarantor of regional security.
An anti-Iran military alliance in the Middle East, similar to NATO, was said to be in the making ahead of the US president’s visit to the region, according to the Iranian newspaper “Iran Emrooz“.[i]A North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) stretching from the Middle East to the Western Mediterranean? The scenario is taking shape and is becoming more and more obvious every day.
After his trip to the United Arab Emirates on June 23, 2022, King Abdullah of Jordan said in an interview with the U.S. channel CNBC that his country would support the formation of a military alliance, similar to NATO, between allied countries in the Middle East.
‘’Jordan’s King Abdullah II said he would support the formation of a Middle East military alliance similar to NATO, and that it can be done with countries that are like-minded. The kingdom works actively with NATO and sees itself as a partner of the alliance, having fought “shoulder-to-shoulder” with NATO troops for decades, the monarch told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Wednesday. “I’d like to see more countries in the area come into that mix,” he said. “I would be one of the first people that would endorse a Middle East NATO,” Abdullah said. But the vision of such a military alliance must be very clear, and its role should be well defined, he added. “The mission statement has to be very, very clear. Otherwise, it confuses everybody,” he said.’’
The Jordanian leader said he would be “one of the first to support the launch of a NATO in the Middle East,” stressing the need for such an alliance to have a “very clear mission” to avoid “confusion.’’ He also said that the allied states in the region have been working together for some time to address the challenges caused by the war in Ukraine, saying: “We will meet to see how we can help each other“.
According to the new U.S. political strategy, the Middle East is not a priority for Biden’s administration, but rather Ukraine, China, and the U.S. mid-term elections are more pressing issues. However, on his first visit to the region, in Tel Aviv, on July 13, 2022, Biden was confronted with a rapidly changing and still unstable part of the world.
Thus, he unveiled his main objective of convincing Saudi Arabia of the need to increase global oil supplies to alleviate the latest energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, insisting that the main purpose of his visit must, despite everything, respect fundamental American values.
In this context, a meeting of U.S. military officials was organized, with their counterparts in Israel, Jordan, Egypt, and several Gulf countries. The meeting in the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh focused on exploring ways to coordinate against Iran’s growing missile capabilities and its drone program.[iii]
So did the U.S. president’s visit to the Middle East include a “hidden agenda”? The Middle East has always been known as a tense area, where the inflamed situations in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, and the attempt to transfer instability to the Gulf States, have all led to a rethinking of Arab security and military coordination. And this is actually closer to forming an alliance like NATO.
On the other hand, this “NATO” would include: Israel, the United States, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Bahrain, and Sudan, and this alliance would not have the role of forcing these countries to defend each other, but rather it would be a regional forum that would publicize the existing security relationship between Israel and the six Arab countries.
Probably, the idea of forming a military alliance in the Middle East with the necessary participation of Israel could be the product of the Arab regimes’ fear of the growing Iranian capabilities and the return of Islamic political movements,[iv]and their anxiety about the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
In light of the failure of the formation of a Middle Eastern military alliance in the past, reminiscent of the Baghdad Pact[v] in the 1950s, it seems that the United States wanted to repeat the experience for the sake of Israel, and thus, probably, weaken the Palestinian cause. The demand of some Gulf Arabs is not to freeze the Iranian nuclear program, but rather to stop the Iranian missile program.[vi]
For Shyam Bahtia, writing in the Jewish Chronicle, states that the process of the Middle Eastern NATO actually started after the Abraham Accords: [vii]
‘’The process started with the signing of the Abraham Accords two years ago which resulted in normalising relations between Israel and three Arab countries: Morocco, the Gulf Arab states of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. Their historic agreement emerged from a perception that Israel and the Arab region face a common threat from Iran. Following the accords’ signing, Israel, the UAE and Bahrain have been engaged in a wide range of discussions of mutual security needs, including protection from Iranian military drones that Tehran has so far deployed in Yemen and Iraq.’’
This major new development of open and friendly relations between Israel and some Gulf Arab states in a region plagued by turmoil, endemic civil wars, shifting geopolitical alliances, and competition between rival alliances seeking to expand their spheres of influence and determine the destinies of the region’s weak and fragmented states, has acquired strong strategic significance on the Gulf side and has emerged as a new dynamic for the Middle East in the 21st century. [viii]
The world is waiting… Will the Gulf Arabs tell Biden that they will not accept any agreement that does not put pressure on Israel to reach a just or even semi-just solution to the Palestinian question, and will they reject any agreement that does not provide not only for a freeze on Iran’s nuclear program, but also for a freeze on the missile program, and above all for an end to Iran’s influence in the region?
In a 1997 report entitled ‘’NATO and the Mediterranean,’’[ix] Javier Solana, then Secretary General of NATO, stressed the importance of the Mediterranean as a component of the European security architecture. Since then, the Atlantic Alliance has shown renewed interest in the Mediterranean area. The political stakes involved and which weigh on their evolution will therefore be the subject of an initial reflection, before presenting the various initiatives carried out since the post-Cold War period in order to identify the effectiveness but also the limits of this transatlantic presence in the region.[x]
Since its creation in 1949, NATO has undergone numerous political and military transformations, and at the Rome summit in November 1991, a doctrinal approach emerged within NATO’s New Strategic Concept,[xi] which specifies that the Allies wish to maintain “peaceful and non-conflictual relations” with the countries south of the Mediterranean and in the Middle East. The peripheral zone of Europe, which had been left aside until then, is now of great importance for the maintenance of regional stability and, moreover, for the security of the Alliance. The Gulf War in 1991 thus highlighted the possibilities of NATO as a platform for discussion and political and military cooperation between all the allies. This new doctrine also announced the process of NATO’s enlargement to Eastern European countries and the beginning of an engagement outside its usual territory.[xii]
In this way, the new Strategic Concept adopted in November 2011 at the Lisbon Summit [xiii]makes cooperative security one of the three key priorities of the Alliance. The advent of a new generation of partnerships has contributed to the development of cooperation among Mediterranean countries, with specific reference to the “Mediterranean Dialogue” in the following terms: [xiv]

Agbese writes in from Abuja.

“We are strongly committed to the development of friendly and cooperative relations with all Mediterranean countries, and we intend to further develop the Mediterranean Dialogue in the coming years. We will work to deepen cooperation with those countries currently participating in the Mediterranean Dialogue and remain open to the inclusion of other countries in the region in the Dialogue.”

But while NATO is working to develop initiatives and partnerships, the Mediterranean remains an increasingly problematic region. The Sea Guardian mission is also the theater materializing the differences between the members of the Alliance. Begun in June 2016 as a continuation of Operation Active Endeavour, the Sea Guardian mission aims to conduct maritime surveillance, fight terrorism and build capacity in the Mediterranean region. It aims to identify and prevent the development of crises in the region, as well as being a platform for dialogue for Mediterranean states on security issues. The Sea Guardian mission is in close collaboration with the EUNAVFOR MED operation led by the European Union.

Dr Mohamed Chtatou is an Int’l Affairs Analyst.