The Trans-Saharan gas export

By Dawi Jalloh

On July 28,2022, the Algerian, Nigerian and Nigerian ministers of energy signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) for the implementation of the $13 billion Trans-Saharan gas pipeline (TGSP) project .

The pipeline that will start from Warri, Delta state would be 4,128 kilometers (2565mi) and run north through Niger to Hassi R’mel in Algeria. In Hassi R’mel the pipeline will connect to the existing trans-Mediterranean pipelines to Europe. 

Speaking during a panel session at the 50th Anniversary Edition of Gastech conference 2022 in Milan, Italy, the Minister of State,Timipre Sylva, says Nigeria is positioning to become a major gas supplier to Europe following the global energy crisis caused by the on-going – conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

“We believe that Europe needs this gas and it is a win-win for all of us and it is in their interest to reduce discriminatory investments that their banks are doing. Today, we have over 200 Trillion cubic feet ( TCF) of proven gas reserves and we know that of we really target gas exploration we can increase this figure up to 600 TCF of gas.

But there are fears that countries in Europe may not readily buy Nigerian gas given current political developments in some of them. Poland’s fight with the European Union (EU) Commission over its reforms to the Judiciary could mean that the country is now at risk of losing two major sources of cash from the EU: 35 billion euros in grants and loans from the EU post-pandemic recovery fund and a further 75 billion euros from Cohesion Policy Funds, which were supposed to flow into the country between 2021 and 2027.

The sum of 110 billion euros is an enormous sum of money to forego under any circumstances. But the absence of that money now is especially troubling for Poland who like other European countries is struggling with inflation and rising energy costs – with no respite in sight.

Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PIS) party has for years been engaged in a protracted fight with the EU Commission over its overhaul of country’s judicial system. Malgorzata Gersdorf, the First President of Poland’s Supreme Court says “the executive in Poland is now placed above the Judiciary. This is totally unacceptable in a country based on the rule of law’’.

First the ruling party filled the country’s constitutional tribunal, the body that decides whether new laws are constitutional, with judges loyal to her. Second, it took over the National Council of the Judiciary, a body charged with appointing Poland’s judges. When Judges complained, the party then passed a law making those complaints illegal and punishable.

The EU Commission launched in 2017 proceedings against Poland for breaching European common values and rule of law, while only warning, Article 7 could lead to sanctions and a suspension of a EU voting rights. Polish President Andrze Duda rejected the EU’s rhetoric and said its push to invoke Article 7 was driven by political motives.

Article 7 is a timeline that begins with warnings, proceeds to economic sanctions and risks the removal of the country from the EU parliamentary process. When Poland requested for the release of its frozen European funds recently , Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki warned that given the “unfriendly attitude of the EU, there needs to be “realism and skepticism about when the money will actually arrive’’.

This is because the ruling party does not want to roll back changes to the Judiciary introduced over the last seven years, even though the EU’s top court have said that there are incompatible with EU treaties. Nationalists and Eurosceptics officials have escalated their anti-EU rhetoric, insisting that Poland will make no concessions. It may block decisions by the 27-nation EU in areas where unanimity is required like in foreign and security policy, taxation or finances.

Warsaw University Law Professor who consults with foreign firms, Marcin Matczak, reportedly says the ruling party’s conservative base may agree that the judiciary needs to be controlled but it could lead to real economic consequences. He affirms that foreign companies are now scared to invest in Poland for fear that they won’t be protected by local courts in the case of dispute.

“How can you trust that the Polish Court that is under some kind of an impact of the politicians who urge the court to take into consideration the national interest that they can solve the problem,” he asks.

Poland’s gutting of its court system is part of a trend in Europe that started in Hungary and could also plague Romania, Bulgaria and other  fledgling European democracies expected to buy Nigeria’s gas that will be sent through the $13 billion Trans-Saharan gas pipeline now under construction.

Given the current confrontation by some European countries with the EU commission over their politics and human rights violations, Sylva’s optimism that gas supply to the continent would be a win-win for all of us could be far-fetched.

Jallow is a Public Affairs Expert