Ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, political psychologist and campaign strategist Valentin Bianki has released the English edition of his book _Politics in Nigeria: Elites and Voters_, which offers a research-based perspective on how elections are won, how voters behave, and how power is distributed.
The book was formally launched at a public forum held at the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre, Abuja. The event reviewed the outcome of the 2023 elections and explored what it means for voter mobilization, regional inclusion, democratic contestation and the future configuration of political power in the country.
Published by Fortis Press, the 292-page work covers the 2023 polls, the first two years of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s government, and how Nigeria recruits its political elite. It is grounded in over 550 references and field research carried out by Bianki and his team.
At the heart of the book is the argument that Nigeria’s democratic progress is best measured by the openness of its electoral contests and the chances available to challengers to take on dominant forces. On that basis, Bianki described the 2023 presidential election as the most competitive since 1999.
His data shows President Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerged winner with 36.6 percent of the votes – the lowest vote share by any presidential winner in the Fourth Republic. Four candidates, according to the analysis, pulled substantial votes in different parts of the federation, underlining the intensity of the competition.
The study also punctures the myth of social media as a predictor of electoral success. After reviewing 5.9 million Twitter accounts and 2.3 million tweets, Bianki found that Peter Obi’s dominance in the online political debate did not automatically lead to victory at the polls. Low turnout, regional differences in support and the depth of traditional political machines were identified as key elements that decided the result.
Beyond voting, the book links politics to governance benefits. Using ministerial appointment data dating back to 2010, it establishes a pattern where zones that deliver more electoral support tend to get higher cabinet representation. That representation, in turn, correlates with federal transfers to those zones, with the exception of the South-South.
The analysis documents notable post-2023 adjustments: the North-West’s portion of cabinet seats fell from 27% to 19%, while its share of federal allocations declined from 16% to 14%.
On leadership demographics, the research points to a younger cabinet. The average birth year of ministers in the Tinubu cabinet is 1966, against 1957 recorded under Presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari. The share of ministers born after 1971 has risen from 3% to 20%.
Looking to 2027, Bianki maintained that opposition momentum will not be enough on its own. What will matter most, he said, is the capacity to build solid party organisations, forge workable coalitions and mobilise voters on a national scale.
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