When this carnival finally closes!

Monday Column By Hameed M. Bello, PhD

hamdbelo@yahoo.co.uk

The topic of this text is neither a parody, a political satire nor an allegory, the type painted by Jack Mapanje, a Malawian poet and academic when he wrote his popular poem titled When This Carnival Finally Closes in 1983. Mapanje produced a poetic text that was received as a political satire of the government of his country at the time. His themes revolve around political betrayal, transience of power and political hypocrisy by associates of a ruling political leader simply represented as ‘brother’. 

Mapanje’s first collection of poems, Of Chameleons and Gods, was published in the U. K. in 1981 and were soon withdrawn from bookshops, libraries and all institutions of learning in Malawi. Like many other writers during his time, he was imprisoned without trial or charge by the Malawian government in 1987. Many writers, linguists and human rights activists campaigned for his release, but he was not freed until 1991. Mapanje went into exile in Great Britain where he teaches English and Linguistics at the University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne. That was the plight of pre-independent and post colonial African writers who used the medium of creative writing to expose the ills of society in order to correct them. They ended up being hunted down.

Unlike Mapanje, the topic of this discourse is a metaphor to characterize the litany of aspirants seeking to grab the ticket of their respective political party to run for president in 2023 elections billed to hold February 25, 2023. We are daily confronted with the avalanche of presidential hopefuls, including those perceived as innovators and the others seen as laggards or even the mere jesters, each believing he is best suited for the job and painting himself in attractive kaleidoscope of colours to diminish the others’ prospects. This reduces the contest for the most revered seat in our country to some kind of carnival open to all comers. This should not be so because the quality of political leadership thrown up determines prosperity outcomes for the nation. Energy, experience, patriotism, intelligence, track record of performance, good education and wisdom are some of the qualities we should look out for in an aspiring president. We should not be blinded by presidential aspirants across parties who have sweet but empty rhetoric, or those who have money to throw around to confuse us in the choice of president at the party primaries and at the general election, from the many who have indicated interest.  We must take our destiny in our hands. The comforting angle however is that the carnival will close at some point when party primaries separate the chaff from the seed. And just like in a dramatic tragedy, we shall know the real protagonists and the antagonists, including the mere jesters whose stock in trade is to entertain the audience for personal gains. That will be the climax of the primary context which, again like in a dénouement in literary composition, the tension over who flies the party’s flag will be resolved.

Back to the nitty-gritty. Although Nigeria officially has 18 political parties after deregistering 75 others for breaching regulations that govern their operations, the real contest for president, by experience and precedence of the last two elections, is between the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, and the leading opposing Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. The question is who will emerge the presidential candidate of each of the two biggest parties in the country – APC and PDP. The juggernauts in APC are party chieftain Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, Transportation Minister Chibuike Amaechi, Ebonyi State governor Dave Umahi, Ekiti state Kayode Fayemi and Senator Rochas Okorocha. Others are Senator Orji Uzor Kalu and Kogi State Governor Yahaya Bello. Yahaya Bello is coming with the argument that apart from being the youngest of all the aspirants, the North Central where he hails from has never produced a democratically elected president since independence in 1960. This is against the background that the APC seems to be disposed to zoning the presidency to the South.

There is a notorious angle that has failed to die down that former President Jonathan is being considered to run under the platform of APC but he is slow to commit himself ostensibly because he has not received the go ahead from President Buhari. This seems to be more fiction than fact, although anything is possible in politics. The question is what will Jonathan do differently now. Governor of Central Bank, Godwin Emefiele and Minister of Science and Tech, Ogbonnaya Onu are also mentioned as having an ambition.

In the PDP, a total of 17 presidential aspirants have obtained PDP presidential nomination and expression of interest forms. They include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President Bukola Saraki, Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal, Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, former Presidential Adviser, Hayatudeen Mohammed and former President of Pharmaceutical Society of Nigeria, Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa. Also in the race are Ovation magazine publisher, Dele Momodu, former Ekiti State Governor, Ayo Fayose, Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike; Akwa Ibom state Governor Udom Emmanuel and a lone female contender, Tariele Diana Oliver. Others include Peter Obi, Pius Anyim, Sam Ohuabunwa and Nwachukwu Anakwenze. Talks on consensus are still on though aspirants are divided. Presidential aspirants from the North are in support while those from North are not.

In the APC, governors are mobilising for consensus, but it may encounter hurdles if it will not favour Tinubu, who is a key figure in the contest. If the APC Governors insist on consensus, it may force Tinubu and his group to sabotage the party or pull out of the platform. The ultimate concern seems to be why Tinubu and Osinbajo are contesting for the same position when one of them ought to have backed the other to avoid rancor, suspicion and enmity. It has not been disputed anywhere that it was Tinubu who nominated Osinbajo for Vice President when the offer was extended to his group following the merger between the legacy parties to form the APC which produced Buhari as president in 2015. Tinubu as a party leader could either step down to groom Osinbajo, or Osinbajo could also step down in honour of his benefactor. Their relationship could be strained if both go into the contest and lose out or one wins. But that is politics. The goal often  is to service vested interest or oil enlightened self interest. There is no permanent friendship, especially when ego and interest are bruised. The Hausa word for politics is Siyasa, a term derived from the Arabic equivalent of Siyasiya which some accounts suggest that it  means deceit. 

Feedback:

Comment on the Monday column published on April 11. with the topic, “Dangote, Adenuga, Rabiu as Nigeria’s ambassadors”:

 I enjoyed reading your piece yesterday. Do you know that should Dangote decide to invest in cow business he would put an end to herders’-farmers’ conflicts in the country?

There is a lady-columnist who keeps talking of international relations policy. Professionally, it is foreign policy. Kindly draw her attention.

Atah Pine, Makurdi