2027 and Tinubu’s infrastructure push: The North-West in focus

By Egena Sunday Ode

President Bola Tinubu’s administration is believed to be quietly redrawing the infrastructure map of Nigeria’s North-West, and the political ripple effects are said to be already showing.

The signal came peultimate week from the Federal Executive Council meeting, where two of three major rail projects were awarded to the North-West: the Kano Metro City rail and the Kaduna State light rail system. Together with the Lagos Green Line, the $2.99bn package is being financed by MOFI on behalf of the federal government. For a region that accounts for roughly a third of Nigeria’s population, the projects represent both an economic bet and a political statement.

Kaduna Governor, Uba Sani, didn’t mince words during a dinner with the Presidential Media Team peultimate Thursday. He credited Tinubu with delivering more infrastructure to the North than any past president, pointing to billions of naira in approved rail and road works in Kaduna alone. He went further, claiming there is “no opposition” to Tinubu in Kaduna ahead of 2027 and predicting the state will deliver at least 70% of its votes to the APC candidate.

The claim is bold, but the visible works give it some weight: The 118km Abuja-Kaduna section of the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano Expressway is now 100% complete, built with 200mm reinforced concrete and solar lighting rather than asphalt. Engineers say it’s designed to last 100 years and handle heavy traffic. This is part of the wider 375.9km corridor linking Abuja to Kano. Meanwhile, 21km of Section II from Jere to Kaduna is being done, and work has begun on the 490km Zaria-Funtua-Gusau-Sokoto dual carriageway.

Also, two long-abandoned Kaduna arteries are back on track. The 23km Western Bypass, once under the Tax Credit Scheme, is being rebuilt with the new concrete technology. The Eastern Bypass from Kakau to Zaria-Kano Expressway is nearly finished, with only two bridges remaining, according to Kaduna Information Commissioner Dr. Ahmed Maiyaki.

Rail momentum has returned with the 203km Kaduna-Kano standard gauge rail already 66% completed, and the massive bridge at Mando now a landmark along the Kaduna-Birnin Gwari Expressway. Equally significant is the 400km Kano-Jigawa-Katsina-Maradi line, now 63% complete. Contractors say the Dutse branch line is progressing well, with a December 2027 delivery target, though work at the Jibia section has slowed due to diplomatic issues.

Besides rail and roads, the Tinubu administration has also made some significant interventions in two ecological projects in Kano’s Garko and Wujuwuju-Jakara Junction. The irrigation project in Garko will consume a whopping N2.6bn while the erosion control project at Wujuwuju-Jakara junction will gulp N47bn.

Site clearance, filling works, stone base and sub-surface works are all progressing steadily while concrete pavement construction had covered 19 kilometers including street light installation on the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway.

The level of completion is put at 40 per cent for Section 2A and 16 per cent for Section 2B.

“With these projects among others under construction and in various stage of completion in the Northwest and across the entire Northern Region in just three years of the President Tinubu administration, the development of the North seems assured,” observers have pointed out.

“Seeing is believing; those alleging the present government has not been fair to the North terms of development projects can also go round and see for themselves. There is no doubt that the Tinubu administration has kept faith with the North. The remonstration to the contrary is either from those still writhing in disbelief in the name of 2027 politics or part of the machination of the opposition politicians,” said Tunde Rahman, Director of Media and Publicity, Renewed Hope Ambassadors.

Speaking specifically on the level of work going at the Kebbi end of the Sokoto-Badary Road, the Deputy Governor, Umar Tafida noted that the longest stretch of the highway, which is about 258 kilometres, is within Kebbi State, stating that the legacy project will link the Northwest to the Southwestern part of the country and open up huge economic opportunities between the two regions of the country, most especially for farmers, traders and tourists.

State-level projects are gaining traction as subnational governments are leveraging increased allocations. Kaduna commissioned the 35km Gadan Gayan–Gwaraji–Kujama Road in February 2026, the longest asphalt road built in the state in 20 years, linking 76 farming communities across three LGAs. Kano has erected two major flyovers to ease congestion in the capital, while Jigawa is rolling out agricultural equipment for imminent commissioning.

For context, the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano corridor and the Kano-Maradi line are critical to the North-West’s agricultural economy, moving produce from the hinterland to markets and ports. If completed on schedule, they could cut transport costs and travel time significantly.

And the political reading is obvious. With 2027 approaching, Tinubu’s team is banking on concrete projects to translate into electoral loyalty, particularly in a region where infrastructure deficits have long fueled discontent. Whether that translates to 70% of Kaduna’s vote, as Uba Sani suggests, remains to be seen. But analysts say the administration’s footprint in the North-West is now hard to miss.

They have, however, raised concerns over the lingering security issues in the region as well as adequate and timely funding to enable completion of the projects on schedule.

Security, no doubt, is the immediate bottleneck. The Jibia section slowdown on the Kano-Maradi line already shows how cross-border diplomatic and security issues can halt work. In Kaduna and along the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano corridor, banditry had disrupted construction and logistics in the past. No contractor moves heavy equipment without guaranteed protection, and that drives up costs. The good news, however, is that the uncanny experience on the Kaduna-Abuja Expressway belongs in the past.

According to analysts also, delivery timeline is not only dependent on security holding, but also on execution capacity. The Abuja-Kaduna 118km section being 100% complete is a good sign, but the broader 375.9km Abuja-Kano road and the 400km Kano-Maradi rail have hard 2027 deadlines. That’s barely 18 months out. The December 2027 date for Kano-Maradi is already pushing against the election calendar, which means political pressure to rush the projects.

Funding, no doubt, underpins timeline delivery. Though the $2.99bn rail package is routed through MOFI, which signals an attempt to move away from direct federal borrowing toward blended finance, same cannot be said of the other ongoing projects. But it must be emphasised that sustained cashflow matters more than the headline figure. Chances are that If oil revenue dips or FX pressure returns, counterpart funding and contractor payments could slip, and projects get mothballed like many did in the last decade.

The real test is whether the Tinubu administration can keep all three aligned long enough to have something tangible to campaign on in 2027.

It needs emphasising that security is the obvious fault line for the opposition to target because it’s the one thing the federal government can’t pave over with concrete.

The North-West has been the epicenter of banditry and kidnapping for the last five years, and most of these rail and road corridors cut through vulnerable stretches in Kaduna, Katsina, and Jigawa. If contractors face attacks or workers get abducted, projects stall and budgets balloon. That gives opponents a simple narrative: “You can’t claim development while people still can’t travel safely on the same roads you’re commissioning.”

There’s also a political angle. Insecurity erodes the sense of government presence, and without visible safety, voters may discount the infrastructure gains entirely. The opposition won’t need to dispute the 118km concrete road or the 66% rail completion. They’ll just point to any abductions along the Abuja-Kaduna highway or the slowdown at Jibia and argue the projects don’t translate to real safety or economic activity.

For Tinubu’s camp, the counter is to tie security operations directly to infrastructure protection. We’ve already seen this with the Abuja-Kaduna train service, where heavy military presence was deployed after the 2022 attack. Should similar measures be expected around these new sites closer to 2027?

This needa to be considered because If security incidents spike months before the election, all the funding and delivery milestones won’t matter much at the ballot box in the North-West.