Our reporter, Musa Baba Adamu examines the state of play as political temperature picks up ahead of next year’s governorship race.
The political temperature in Nasarawa State is rising well ahead of the 2027 governorship election, and an increasingly interesting contest is taking shape between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), represented by its governorship candidate, Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada, and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), whose candidate is former Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Mohammed Abubakar Adamu.
Ideally, the APC ought to be the overwhelming favourite. It controls the Government House, has the advantage of incumbency, commands substantial political machinery and is backed by the structure of the ruling party at both state and federal levels.
Yet, beneath that apparently formidable advantage, a curious political phenomenon appears to be developing in the state. The ruling APC increasingly looks like a party trying to catch up with an opposition candidate who is behaving as though he already possesses the political initiative.
Agreed, that perception may ultimately prove wrong. Elections are not won in August 2026, and the SDP still has to overcome the enormous organizational, financial and structural advantages enjoyed by the APC. But politics is as much about perception and momentum as it is about formal structures. And at the moment, the contrast between the two campaigns deserves serious attention.
The first major turning point was the APC governorship primary of May 2026.
Senator Wadada emerged as the APC candidate after securing 195,285 votes in the primary conducted across the state’s 147 electoral wards, while the former IGP was officially declared second with 49,675 votes by the primary committee, although other reports carried a figure of 39,675 votes for him.
The result itself was emphatic. Wadada won the ticket and therefore had every reason to assume that the difficult part of the race had been settled.
But it was precisely at that point that the real political battle began.
Adamu rejected the primary, alleging that the process did not reflect the will of APC members. He accused the party of compromising its internal processes and said the primary fell short of democratic standards.
It requires retelling that IGP had rejected the consensus arrangement that favoured Wadada. He insisted that he would participate in a competitive primary, declaring that he believed his popularity would carry him through.
When the result went against him, Adamu did not merely withdraw from the political arena. He left the APC.
On May 25, he submitted his resignation from the party and subsequently joined the SDP. Reports quoted his campaign organisation as describing the APC primary as a “disgraceful charade” and alleging that what occurred was “not a primary election” but an assault on democracy.
That decision transformed what had been an internal APC succession dispute into a potentially serious three-way political equation involving APC, SDP and the wider opposition.
More importantly, Adamu took with him not merely his personal ambition but a network of political supporters and aggrieved APC stakeholders.
The most immediate evidence of this was the movement of politicians and political structures from the APC towards the SDP.
As early as May, some loyalists of Adamu defected en masse to the SDP. Among those named was Barrister Musa Hussein, Director-General of Adamu’s campaign organisation, alongside a former member of the Nasarawa State House of Assembly.
It was also reported that supporters of several APC governorship aspirants who had withdrawn from the contest had collapsed their structures behind Adamu. The report put the number of supporters involved at no fewer than 5,000.
The significance of this was not necessarily the numerical accuracy of the 5,000 figure because political rallies routinely inflate numbers. But, the most important point was that Adamu was able to convert dissatisfaction within the APC into an external political movement.
Then came a more consequential development.
In July, two serving members of the Nasarawa State House of Assembly, Mohammed Adamu Omadefu of Keana and Jacob Ajegena Kudu of Nasarawa Eggon East, resigned from the APC and defected to the SDP. The lawmakers cited what they described as unfair treatment during the party’s primaries.
Prior to that, Mohammed Isimbabe, representing Toto/Gadabuke Constituency, had also left the APC for the SDP.
These are not ordinary defections. Serving legislators crossing from the governing party to the platform of its principal challenger inevitably generates the impression that something deeper than personal disappointment is taking place.
And that is where the APC’s problem begins.
The former IGP has increasingly presented himself as a politician of the grassroots.
In July, Hon. Kudu, before formally announcing his defection, said Adamu was “on the ground,” had “the people” and enjoyed grassroots support. He further claimed that Adamu had done a lot across all 13 local government areas and had empowered many people.
One may reasonably question such political endorsements. They are, after all, statements made by politicians who have chosen to support a candidate.
But political campaigns are judged not only by what their opponents say about them, but by the pattern of activity they generate. And Adamu’s campaign has been visibly pursuing a grassroots strategy.
His political engagements have increasingly moved beyond the state capital and conventional political gatherings into communities, local government areas, traditional institutions, farmers’ groups and empowerment programmes.
The latest example is particularly revealing.
On August 15, Adamu launched an agricultural empowerment programme for farmers in Nasarawa’s Western Zone, covering Keffi, Karu, Kokona, Nasarawa and Toto local government areas. The programme featured the distribution of farm equipment and inputs to hundreds of beneficiaries.
Adamu said the initiative was designed to “increase agricultural production, strengthen food security and improve the livelihoods of farmers across the state.”
It was said that the programme was not intended to compete with government agricultural initiatives but to complement them.
Whether one regards such activities as genuine philanthropy, political mobilization, or a combination of both, the political message is unmistakable: Adamu is attempting to occupy the space between politician and benefactor before the formal campaign season fully opens.
That is a strategically intelligent move in a predominantly agrarian state.
The danger for the APC is that conventional political visibility can be misleading.
A candidate may be highly visible in Lafia, Keffi and on social media and still be comparatively weak in the villages, wards and communities where elections are actually translated into votes.
The 2027 election will ultimately be fought across 13 local government areas and hundreds of wards. The politician who succeeds will need more than endorsements from political elites. He will require a network of people who can identify voters, mobilize them, communicate with them and sustain their loyalty.
Adamu appears to understand this. His activities are increasingly being presented around the language of grassroots presence, empowerment, agriculture, traditional institutions and direct contact with communities.
That is important because the former IGP is not merely asking voters to remember him. He is attempting to give them reasons to associate his name with practical benefits.
It is a classic political mobilization strategy. And it places the APC in an uncomfortable position.
Is Wadada catching up? There is evidence that Wadada and the APC have recognized the challenge.
Wadada has been touring parts of the state and holding meetings with party stakeholders.
In July, he visited Akwanga, where he met APC aspirants, candidates, party leaders and grassroots supporters from Nasarawa North. He used the occasion to present his HEARTS Agenda, which he said focuses on infrastructure, education, healthcare, economic empowerment and security.
His campaign has also sought to project a broader governance programme rather than merely a personality-based candidacy.
In late July, Wadada also unveiled his development blueprint and said Nasarawa could not afford a mediocre governor. The programme, branded the HEARTS Agenda, is presented as a framework for development and empowerment.
His campaign website also promises, among other things, the creation of 50,000 direct jobs and support for 10,000 small and medium-sized enterprises through a Nasarawa Youth Empowerment Fund within his first two years.
These are substantial proposals. But politically, the question is not simply whether Wadada has a good manifesto. The question is when did the electorate begin to feel his presence?
Adamu has been attempting to create a narrative of a candidate who is physically present among the people and already undertaking interventions. Wadada, by contrast, is increasingly communicating a future governance proposition.
In political terms, one is selling “I am here with you now”, while the other is selling “this is what I will do when I get there.”
The first can be extremely powerful in an election environment where voters are economically vulnerable.
It would nevertheless be premature to conclude that the APC is losing Nasarawa. The party retains formidable advantages.
It would be recalled that Governor Abdullahi Sule endorsed Wadada as his preferred successor as far back as April. The Governor said the selection followed consultations involving youth groups, women organizations, traditional rulers, party officials and stakeholders across the state’s three senatorial zones.
Wadada subsequently emerged from the APC primary with an overwhelming numerical victory.
The APC also controls the state machinery and has a deeply established electoral structure.
Indeed, the APC chairman in Nasarawa, Aliyu Bello, PhD, has publicly dismissed the suggestion that Adamu’s defection would damage the party’s 2027 chances. He urged remaining supporters of the former IGP to accept the primary result.
That confidence is understandable. But the problem is that the danger is not necessarily Adamu’s personal popularity. It is the fragmentation of APC’s own political base.
The real danger: an internal wound becoming an external threat. The most dangerous opposition candidate for an incumbent party is not necessarily the person with the largest political structure. It is the person capable of turning the governing party’s internal grievances into an opposition coalition.
That is precisely what Adamu is attempting. The APC’s own internal contest produced aggrieved aspirants, disappointed politicians, defecting lawmakers and supporters who believe they were excluded from the succession process.
Before the primary, many political analysts described the situation as potentially leading the APC into “murky waters,” because numerous governorship aspirants had opposed Governor Sule’s endorsement of Wadada and demanded a level playing field.
There is another factor the APC should not underestimate: the psychology of an underdog. Adamu can tell a politically compelling story. He contested within the ruling party. He lost. He alleged that the process was unfair. He left. He joined a smaller party and he is now presenting himself as a candidate taking his message directly to the people.
That is a much easier political narrative to communicate than the complicated story of party structures, primary results and official endorsements.
For voters who are dissatisfied with the establishment, Adamu’s story can become one of “the candidate who was denied the ticket but refused to surrender.”
The SDP, meanwhile, gets an opportunity to become the vehicle for protest votes from APC members without necessarily having to build that protest sentiment itself.
But Adamu also has a problem. The SDP should not mistake momentum for victory. A candidate can generate crowds and still lose an election. He can attract defectors and still fail to build a sufficiently broad electoral coalition. He can distribute farm inputs and empower beneficiaries and still discover that elections require much more than goodwill.
One critical challenge is translating personal popularity into a disciplined party structure. Another is convincing voters that the SDP can actually win.
This is known in electoral politics as the bandwagon problem: voters may personally like a challenger but hesitate to support him if they believe the incumbent’s machinery is too strong.
Adamu must therefore transform his campaign from a personality movement into a statewide electoral organisation. He must also maintain a delicate ethno- religious and senatorial balancing act in a state as politically diverse as Nasarawa.
The APC can still salvage the situation. Indeed, the party’s greatest advantage is that it still has time.
First, APC must stop treating Adamu as a defeated former aspirant. He is no longer an APC aspirant. He is the SDP’s governorship candidate and a potential rallying point for disaffected APC members. The party should therefore analyse him as a serious opponent rather than dismissing his activities as political theatrics.
Secondly, the party must reconcile its internal factions. There must be a genuine reconciliation process involving the governor, Wadada, former aspirants, former governors, lawmakers, party executives and influential stakeholders.
The objective should not merely be to obtain photographs of politicians shaking hands. It should be to recover political structures.
Thirdly, Wadada must deepen his grassroots engagement. He should spend less time speaking to political elites and more time listening to ordinary voters. The APC candidate must be seen in villages, farms, markets, youth gatherings, women’s groups and community meetings.
If Adamu is building the image of the candidate who visits the hinterland, Wadada cannot afford to be perceived as the candidate of Lafia, Keffi and Government House.
Fourthly, the HEARTS Agenda must be converted from a manifesto into a movement. The proposals should be explained in simple language across the 13 LGAs. Every local government should understand what HEARTS means for its farmers, young people, women, traders, teachers and communities.
Fifthly, APC must address empowerment politics intelligently. The answer is not to engage in an indiscriminate spending war. Rather, the party should demonstrate credible programmes, explain existing government interventions and show how Wadada’s proposed administration will expand economic opportunity.
Sixth, the APC must stop losing politicians unnecessarily. The defection of serving legislators is politically embarrassing even when it does not immediately alter the numerical balance of power.
Every additional defection creates another headline, another rally, another photograph and another psychological blow.
Seventh, the party must recover the narrative. At present, Adamu appears to have succeeded in defining the political conversation around grassroots engagement, empowerment and fairness. Wadada needs to define his own narrative around competence, continuity, inclusion and development.
Ultimately, Nasarawa 2027 may not be decided simply by whether Adamu is more popular than Wadada. It may be decided by whether APC can prevent the election from becoming a referendum on internal party injustice and the performance of the incumbent political establishment. That is the real danger.
If the APC successfully reconciles its factions, mobilizes its enormous structure, communicates Wadada’s programme effectively and takes grassroots engagement seriously, the party remains a formidable electoral machine.
But if APC assumes that its incumbency, structures and primary victory automatically guarantee success, it could make the very mistake that opposition candidates dream about.
Adamu’s campaign, at least from the evidence emerging from the public domain, is attempting something strategically sophisticated: turning the post-primary disappointment inside the APC into a statewide political movement outside it.
The agricultural empowerment programme reported last week is especially revealing because it demonstrates the direction in which his campaign is moving. It is no longer enough to hold political meetings; the campaign is seeking direct relationships with farmers and communities.
Wadada, to his credit, is not standing still. His Akwanga engagement, HEARTS Agenda and other consultations demonstrate that his campaign is beginning to respond to the emerging challenge.
But therein lies the political irony. The ruling party, which should ordinarily be setting the pace, increasingly appears to be responding to the rhythm established by an opposition candidate who entered the race after losing his own party’s primary.
That is why the APC should be worried, not necessarily because Adamu has already defeated it, but because he has succeeded in making the governing party defend its advantage earlier than it expected.
The election is still far away. There will be alliances, defections, counter-defections, negotiations, court cases, new political alignments and possibly unexpected developments. But the warning signs are already visible.
The APC candidate won the ticket. He now has to win the electorate. And before he can do that, he may first have to win back some of the people who helped build the party in the first place.
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