2027 will be decided in 6 states

Wednesday Column By Egena Sunday Ode

I watched the Peace Accord signing by presidential candidates and clapped. Then I remembered who wasn’t in the room.  Because peace signed in Abuja means nothing if it’s broken in Jos.

That’s why I felt relief that the ritual still happened, and unease that the two men who will likely define 2027 sent representatives.

We have made peace a protocol. Something to delegate. But peace is not delegated in Jos. Or in Port Harcourt. Or in Kano. It is defended there, in the streets, by the choices leaders make when the cameras are off.

If 2015 was saved by one phone call, 2027 will be decided in six places. I’m not guessing. I’m looking at where blood has been spilled before, where money is biggest, and where frustration is deepest.

So let me tell you where to watch.

Start with Plateau and Benue.

We call it “farmer-herder clashes.” Let’s call it what it is: election season with guns. In 2023, entire villages didn’t vote because they couldn’t get home safely. IDP camps are now constituencies.

Come 2027, one rally in Barkin Ladi can start a reprisal in Guma. That is how fast it goes. Our leaders ought to be in Makurdi and Jos now not in January, telling people to sheathe their anger.

Then Kaduna.

Kaduna is Nigeria in miniature. Religion, ethnicity, poverty, all in one state. And it is a bellwether. When Kaduna sneezes, the North catches a cold.

In 2027, the first casualty won’t be a ballot. It will be the truth — a 30-second voice note, forwarded 5 times on WhatsApp. Add one radio presenter taking calls in Zaria, and 5k for boys in Kafanchan, and you have a crisis.

Kaduna needs presence.

Rivers is next, and it’s about money.

Control Rivers, control the narrative and the oil. That is why 2015 and 2019 looked like war. It didn’t change in 2023 either.

Here the violence is organized. Cult groups, waterways, collation centers. It is business.

If INEC and the security agencies wait until December to plan Rivers, they’ve already lost. The planning should be happening right now.

Kano is about numbers.

Win Kano, and you’re halfway to Aso Rock. Lose control of Kano, and you’re halfway to chaos.

We saw the rehearsal in 2023: convoys attacked, supporters clashing. In 2027, every party will pour everything into Kano.

The Emirate, the clerics, the market associations — they are the ones who can cool temperatures. They should be engaged now.

The South-East is the wildcard.

This one is different. It’s not just APC vs PDP vs ADC. It’s about whether voting will even be possible.

Sit-at-home has become a parallel government even when authorities assured that all is well. INEC offices have been burned. If people cannot vote, then the result is illegitimate no matter what the numbers say.

This cannot be solved with only policemen. You need dialogue, and you need it early.

And Osun. Don’t forget Osun.

We celebrated Osun. But 60 people died. Sixty.

If that is our definition of peaceful, then God help us. Osun is proof that the Accord helps, and proof that it is not enough.

The Accord is good. But paper doesn’t stop a bullet in Mangu. Or in Obio-Akpor. Or in Zaria.

What stops it is preparation. INEC and the police should publish a risk map by LGA now. Let us all see where the danger is.

Government should put money into jobs and relief in these places now. Hungry young men are the cheapest weapon in politics.

And our leaders — Tinubu, Atiku, Obi, and the rest — should go to these six states early. Not to campaign, but to preach restraint.

A 60-second video of a candidate saying “do not kill for me” will do more than 10 pages of signatures.

Unfortunately, the campaign trucks are already rolling, but the peace trucks are still in the garage. That has to change. Now.

We have been troubled enough by terrorists. We cannot afford to yield our campaign grounds as killing fields.