Keep an eye on the Biafra Self-referendum

While attending a recent screening of the documentary ‘In the Shadow of Biafra’ at King’s College London, a debate occurred about the impact of the Nigerian-Biafra war on current events in Nigerial. The documentary portrays the Nigerian-Biafran war in the late 1960s through the lens of Nigerian writers, showcasing how perceptions of the war vary depending on generation.

However, some audience members were concerned that the documentary only looked at Biafrans’ struggle for independence through a historical lens and thus, firmly confining it to the past instead of highlighting the continued fight of many Biafrans for an independent state

Currently, the Biafra Republic Government in Exile (BRGIE) is holding a self-referendum to actualize the Biafra Republic peacefully. The first round of voting started in February 2024 and was completed on May 30th, 20242. This will be followed by two consecutive rounds
of voting commencing later this month and lasting until November 20248.

After the commencement of the first round of voting, the Prime Minister of BRGIE, Simon Ekpa, said that over 30 millioncBiafrans voted in the self-referendum,
which surpasses the number of voters in the 2023 Nigerian presidential
election. Ekpa also announced that the
Restoration of the Independent State of
Biafra would take place following the completion of the third round of voting in the Autumn. Biafrans’ recent attempts to establish their own independent nation could be written off by some as futile since Biafra was reabsorbed into Nigeria over 50 years ago, but their desperation to secede from Nigeria is only increasing.

Why do Biafrans want independence
now?

According to Ekpa, the Biafran self- referendum is justified given the marginalization faced by many Biafransvliving in the south-eastern regions of Nigeria and the ineffectiveness of the
national government in solving this issue. This sentiment is backed by ORB International’s most recent public opinion polling in Nigeria.

Nigerians in the South-East and South-South regions are most likely to perceive the national government as ineffective, compared to
other regions.

The South-East and South-South regions were the location of the historic homeland of the lgbo people who formed the core of the secessionist Republic of Biafra and a high concentration of Biafrans continue to live in these regions.

Despite lgbos being the third largest ethnic group in Nigeria, there has yet to be an lgbo president since the end of the war in 1970, leading to a feeling of marginalization among the Igbo people.

Beyond ethnic marginalization, BRGIEchas cited increased threats of insecurity as a justification for the self- referendum. ORB data found that respondents in the South-East region are the most likely to feel unsafe in their
communities, compared to all respondents. While insecurity issues like kidnapping, killings, and the destruction of property, have plagued the South-Eastern region of Nigeria for years, the level of violence caused by militants and terrorists continues to increase, the national government has been unable to curb the increasing violence in the region. This increasing threat of violence, coupled with the ethnic marginalization of the lgbo people living in this region, could be a current trigger for why Biafrans want to
secede from Nigeria.

*Response of the National Government*

While the Nigerian national governmenthas not commented on the Biafran self- referendum, in January 2024 Abuja reaffirmed its opposition to any “separatist activities” while citing the One-China policy. The policy refers to China’s position that there is only onecChinese government, wherein Taiwan is a province of China rather than a separate country and government”.

Although the government did not link its opposition to Taiwanese separatist movements with the Biafran self- referendum, several Nigerian social media users discussed the link between the two separatist movements. Based on this, it is unlikely the Nigerian government will support the results of the self-referendum and subsequent Restoration of the Independent State of Biafra. Given this data, it is unclear whether the Nigerian government’s response to the results of the self-referendum will be through political statements or escalate to a military confrontation. Therefore, it will be important to key an eye on Biafra in coming months.

*By Bridget Dubus, Senior Research*
*Analyst at ORB International, London*