Electoral violence, declining public confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and vote buying have emerged as major threats to Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, despite growing voter willingness to participate, a new survey by Yiaga Africa has revealed.
The survey found that although 84 per cent of Nigerians intend to vote in the 2027 elections, fears about insecurity, electoral credibility and the monetisation of politics could prevent many citizens from translating their intentions into actual participation.
Yiaga Africa disclosed the findings on Wednesday in Abuja during a policy roundtable on voting intentions ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The report, titled “Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027,” is the third edition of the organisation’s National Voting Intentions Survey (NVIS 3.0).
According to the report, 61 per cent of Nigerians fear that electoral violence could prevent them from voting, while only 34 per cent expressed confidence in INEC’s ability to conduct credible elections.
The Head of Knowledge Management and Learning at Yiaga Africa, Safiya Bichi, said the survey was based on interviews with 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
She explained that the survey was conducted in September 2026 through telephone interviews and, for the first time, face-to-face engagements in rural communities.
The findings tracked changes in voter intentions since December 2025, showing that although willingness to participate had increased, voters remained apprehensive about security, the credibility of the electoral process and vote buying.
The proportion of Nigerians who said they were likely or very likely to vote rose from 77 per cent in December 2025 to 84 per cent in September 2026, following a decline to 73 per cent in March 2026.
However, the proportion of respondents who said they were very likely to vote declined from 52 per cent in December 2025 to 48 per cent in March 2026 and 47 per cent in September 2026.
The report also found that only 41 per cent of respondents were both likely to vote and very certain about their choice, raising concerns about whether stated intentions would translate into actual turnout on election day.
Electoral Violence Raises Security Concerns
On electoral security, Yiaga Africa identified fear of violence as the biggest potential barrier to voter participation.
The survey found that 61 per cent of respondents believed the threat of electoral violence could discourage them from visiting polling units.
The concern was particularly pronounced in the North-East, where 78 per cent of respondents expressed similar fears.
However, 83 per cent said improved security would make them more likely to participate in the elections.
Yiaga Africa said the findings highlighted the need for security agencies to prioritise voter protection and establish effective measures to prevent violence before, during and after the elections.
Confidence in INEC Remains Low
The survey also revealed declining public confidence in INEC, with only 34 per cent of respondents expressing confidence in the commission’s ability to conduct credible elections.
This represented a decline from 45 per cent recorded in each of the two previous rounds of the survey.
Distrust was particularly high in the South-East, where 62 per cent of respondents said they lacked confidence in INEC, and the South-South, where 57 per cent expressed similar concerns.
Despite the low level of confidence in the electoral umpire, 49 per cent of respondents said they trusted the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) for voter accreditation and the transmission of election results.
Awareness of electoral reforms also increased significantly, rising from 24 per cent in December 2025 to 62 per cent in September 2026.
The report suggested that the increase reflected growing public awareness of reforms intended to improve transparency and strengthen the electoral process.
Economic Hardship, Leadership Change to Influence Votes
The survey identified government performance and prevailing economic conditions as major factors likely to influence voting decisions in 2027.
According to the findings, 54 per cent of respondents disapproved of the President’s performance, while 71 per cent rated the economy as poor or very poor.
A desire for a change in leadership emerged as the leading motivation for voting, cited by 49 per cent of respondents.
The economy and employment were identified as the leading policy priorities by 38 per cent, while 36 per cent cited security as a major concern.
Yiaga Africa said the findings indicated that voters would pay close attention to candidates’ ability to address economic hardship, unemployment and insecurity.
The report highlighted the importance of issue-based campaigns that offer practical solutions to the country’s economic and security challenges.
Youth Participation Remains a Concern
The survey also identified a generational gap in voting intentions, with younger Nigerians showing less enthusiasm for participating in the elections than older respondents.
Only 40 per cent of young people said they were very likely to vote, compared with 64 per cent of respondents aged 61 and above.
Younger respondents also reported greater fear of electoral violence, lower confidence in INEC and a stronger reliance on social media for election-related information.
Yiaga Africa warned that these concerns could undermine youth participation if electoral stakeholders failed to address the factors discouraging young people from voting.
The organisation stressed the need for targeted voter education, credible electoral processes and improved security to encourage greater participation among young Nigerians.
Distrust in Judiciary Raises Further Concerns
The judiciary also emerged as a source of concern, with 63 per cent of respondents expressing little or no confidence in the ability of the courts to resolve electoral disputes fairly.
The figure rose to 81 per cent in the South-South, indicating widespread concerns about the judiciary’s role in resolving disputes arising from election outcomes.
The findings raised questions about public confidence in the institutions responsible for managing elections and adjudicating electoral disputes.
‘Nigerians Have Not Given Up on Elections’
Commenting on the findings, Yiaga Africa said Nigerians remained willing to participate in elections but were increasingly concerned about the conditions surrounding the electoral process.
“Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, they see it as their duty and they believe their votes can make a difference. What stands between that willingness and the ballot box is fear, distrust and money,” the organisation said.
It added that low voter turnout in Nigeria was a conversion problem rather than a problem of voter apathy, arguing that institutions and stakeholders responsible for security, electoral credibility and logistics must take action to address the challenges.
The organisation warned that the period leading to the 2027 presidential election was critical for rebuilding public confidence and ensuring that voter intentions translated into actual participation.
Yiaga Africa Proposes Measures Ahead of 2027 Elections
To address the challenges identified in the survey, Yiaga Africa called on the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a threat-based national election security plan through the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) by November 2026.
It urged the authorities to prioritise security threats in the North-East, North-West and North-Central regions while ensuring that security arrangements focused on protecting voters, rather than concentrating solely on election materials.
The organisation also called on INEC to make a binding public commitment to the real-time uploading of polling unit results to IReV.
It further urged the commission to publish and test its results management protocol and undertake targeted confidence-building initiatives in the South-East and South-South, where distrust in the electoral process remains high.
Political parties and candidates were advised to campaign on practical, costed plans to address insecurity and economic challenges.
Yiaga Africa also urged political parties and candidates to sign and honour the Peace Accord and commit to enforceable measures against vote buying.
The organisation called on civil society groups and the media to move beyond general appeals for citizens to vote by providing practical information and assurances about electoral safety and credibility.
It further urged them to intensify voter education targeting young people, women and underserved communities while strengthening efforts to counter election-related misinformation.
Yiaga Africa maintained that addressing insecurity, rebuilding confidence in electoral institutions and tackling the monetisation of politics would be critical to improving voter participation and strengthening the credibility of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.
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