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How the candidates stand in Kano, Lagos, Rivers
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INEC forecloses any hitches
By Our Correspondent
Palpable anxiety has gripped supporters of the 18 presidential candidates that will be listed this morning on the ballot papers by the Independent Electoral Commission, INEC, as Nigerians throng out to elect their next president.
Checks by Weekend Peoples Daily have indicated that the camps of the three frontline contestants-Atiku Abubakar of the opposition People Democracy Party, PDP; Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress, and APC the Labour Party’s Peter Obi, particularly, are deep in apprehension over the possible outcomes of the presidential election.
Also, the candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, Rabiu Kwankwaso is still nursing hight optimism that he would pull a surprise at the polls today.
Thought the NNPP standard bearer does not seem to have the widespread support of the threesome, the party unarguably holds Kano as its major stronghold, leading to conclusions by politics watchers that the race in the state would be keenly contested with NNPP possibly garnering high chunk of the votes to be cast.
Already tension is at its peak in the most populous state in Northern Nigeria with APC and NNPP supports threatening a show down. Reports monitored in the state said the NNPP flag bearer was recently attacked in the state and fingers are pointing at APC supporters.
Pundits generally believe that the contest in Kano would be a reenactment of the 2019 duel between Kwankwaso and Governor Abdullahi Ganduje. The PDP under the leadership and high influence of of the Kwankasiyya Movement almost unseated Ganduje in the last governorship election in 2019.
Accordingly, the outcome of the presidential poll in Kano would be a popularity contest between the governor who is backing Tinubu and the NNPP presidential candidate, politic watchers have posited.
Governor Ganduje has severally sworn to deliver Kano to Tinubu. The governor who is at the twilight of his second and final tenure, according to analysts, would be relying on the power of incumbency to accomplish that ambition. But fears are being expressed that it may be an uphill task for him in view of the political sophistication of Kano voters who may not be easily swayed by the influence of the government house once their minds are made.
PDP’s Abubakar Atiku did comparatively well in Kano in 2019 with the help and support of Kwankwaso. Analysts believe that if the two politicians were to be working together in today’s elections, Kano would have been a done deal for the PDP candidate. It’s, however, being reasoned that that the votes PDP garnered in 2019 would be split between the duo of Atiku and Kwankwaso, and both of them are also expected to harvest from APC’s since President Buhari is not in the current race.
There have also been talks about the possibility of the two leaders working together ahead of today’s exercise but that suggestion may have been rested as the NNPP has been in constant denial of the rumoured deal.
Atiku’s camp, however, believes that Kano is theirs for the taking because their candidate has more support base than the NNPP’s across the country, a consideration that may possibly condition the minds and decision of voters in the state. Besides, the PDP having seemingly lost ground to the G-5 governors led by Rivers’ Nyesome Wike seems determined to push for the best outing in Northwest states which have the highest number of registered voters-over 22 million.
The entry of LP’s Peter Obi into the presidential race has, no doubt, changed the political equation across the country and even party lines. The Anambra born politician remains the poster boy in the race as he has created waves with his unique campaign style of gathering mammoth crowd without “shishi” across the country.
Obi was equally favoured to make serious political inroads in Kano and snatch a good percentage of the over five million votes expected to be cast across the state today. Recent events in the state, however, suggests a decline in his fortunes in the state.
The Labour Party’s governorship ticket bearer, Engr Bashir Ishaq Bashir, last week withdrew his candidature in the guber race and reportedly collapsed his structures into the APC’s. That development has been described as a boost for the chances of the APC in both the presidential and governorship elections in Kano.
Analysts said it is left to be seen how Peter Obi can pull through the election in Kano in the absence of a governorship candidate for his party.
A source who spoke to our Correspondent from Kano at the time of doing this report asserted categorically that the action by Engr Bashir has finally nailed the coffin of the LP in the state.
Like Kano, Lagos is another key state where Atiku, Tinubu and Obi’s fate will be decided today. With over seven million registered voters, the state unarguably remains the beautiful bride in the presidential contest.
Analysts believe that Lagos is to Tinubu what Kano is to Kwankwaso. As a two-term governor of the richest state in the country and his background as an activist and crusader, the state is already in the firm grip of the APC candidate.
However, the Jagaban as Tinubu is now fondly called will have to contend with the burgeoning population of Southeasterners in the commercial nerve centre of the country.
In the 2019 and other previous elections, the huge Igbo population had made it possible for the PDP to run neck to neck with the ruling party in the state. However, analysts have suggested that the game in the state will change in favour of Obi’s LP displacing PDP’s Atiku from their traditional second position in Lagos.
They also agreed that getting the required 25 percent votes may not be a herculean task for the PDP, especially with the current seeming waves being made by its governorship candidate fondly known as Jandor.
In the Southsouth region, Atiku would have been the candidate to beat as had happened over time. The PDP candidate topped in the results of the 2019 elections in the all the states in the geopolitical zone. But the snag this time around is that his long faceoff with Wike would likely make it difficult for him to win in the most populous state-Rivers- in the region.
The longstanding rivalry had made the PDP to cancel its scheduled presidential rally in the state. According to the opposition party, the rivalry had snowballed into a life threatening dimension with alleged assassination attempt on one of the members of the PDP Presidential Campaign Committee in the state.
Nevertheless, politics watchers believe that the PDP presidential candidate can still put up an impressive outing in the state at today’s elections. Their stand point is that Atiku’s foot soldiers have not left anything to change despite their inability to hold the state presidential rally. In a never-die spirit, the Adamawa born presidential candidate met with a huge population of Rivers PDP stakeholders in Abuja last Sunday to shore up his chances in the election.
Besides, Analysts have posited that with Rivers State fielding formidable candidates in the National Assembly elections holding together with the presidential, many voters in the state may have no qualms giving their votes to Atiku, especially those with low level political education who might not be able to distinguish between the different parties favoured by the governor for the presidential and National Assembly seats.
The state PDP gladiators are, however, said to be queueing behind the candidature of APC’s Tinubu as allegedly ordered by Governor Wike.
Ordinarily, Peter Obi was tipped to be the likely beneficiary of Atiku’s declining influence in Rivers. Governor Wike had raised that hope when he invited him to commission projects undertaken by the state government under his watch. Wike had pledged to support the LP candidate with logistics. Nonetheless, everything at the moment points to APC candidate getting a high chunk of the votes in Rivers if the governor is able to execute his plans.
Not taking anything for granted, the frontline parties have employed all necessary instruments to stay ahead of one another as campaigns heat up. One of such tools is the resort to pollsters. Just this week, three different opinion polls allegedly favoured each of the trio of Atiku, Tinubu and Obi as the likely winner of today’s presidential polls. The one that favoured Tinubu was described as the final pollster while the following day another one said to have the widest samples ever declared Atiku as the likely undisputed favoured candidate. Obi equally enjoyed high ratings by polls conducted by London based The Economist and Bloomberg platforms. All the candidates did not also fail to describe the opinion polls that relegated their chances as voodoo ratings.
In their almost five months campaign, the politicians all made same electoral promises, centering on economic, agricultural, infrastructure and educational transformation, captured in different slogans. For Atiku, it’s recovery of Nigeria while Tinubu says there’s renewed hope. Obi on his own has the message that a new Nigeria is possible.
The electorates are expected to examine these promises carefully today before casting their ballots for their preferred candidates.
Many Nigerians have bought the argument that the winner in the presidential election in the current dispensation wouldn’t be necessarily determined by the primordial sentiments of religion, ethnicity and deep pockets. They have argued that voters have come of age and are now we’ll informed to separate the chaffs from the grains with respect to sentiments and inducements.
Analysts say, however, that the facts on ground have suggested that the electorates may not have moved too far away from their characteristic sentiments of religious and ethnicity appeals. Neither will they be able to shut their eyes to monetary inducements. According to the analysts, the current naira swap policy regime which has brought about scarcity of the currency notes may be an added advantage to vote buyers as some electorates who have been suffering under the yoke of scarcity for the past weeks may not be able to resist the allure of the scarce notes. In some cities and towns, N1000 is currently sold for N1400. Only a few voters will have the discipline to exchange their votes for money if the opportunity is given.
President Muhammadu Buhari had cited the need to restore sanity in the national electoral system as one of the gains of the new currency policy. According to him, nobody would be allowed to intimidate voters with ill-gotten money in order to clinch undeserved victory in the elections.
Some Nigerians have also posited that the voters have bid farewell to religion and ethnicity s factor that would condition their minds as they go the polling booth today. If religion and ethnicity have been trashed in the considerations for the choice of political officer holders, why are there so much talks about a Muslim-Muslim ticket of Tinubu and his Running Mate, Kashim Shettima? Also, why the hues and cry over the Atiku candidacy that is seen as a transition from Fulani to Fulani presidency, should the PDP candidate win the polls today. These are questions that have continued to agitate the minds of discerning analysts in particular and the populace generally. And, according to them, these are among the issues that have ignited anxiety in the political parties as the presidential poll opens this morning.
Meanwhile, some close politics watchers have prognosticated that the presidential election may not be able to produce a clear winner in the first ballot in view of the fact that the contest is too close to call.
The electoral umpire has, however, expressed its readiness for a runoff if the need arises. It also foreclosed any possibility of a shift in the scheduled election dates begining from today’s presidential.
To dispell any rumour to that effect, the electoral body has been sending out a terse text message to prospective voters in the last couple of days restating that the scheduled dates are sacrosanct.
“Presidential and National Assembly election is on Saturday, 25th February. Make your vote count. Go and vote. For enquires, call INEC on 4632,” the message read.
