By Jude Opara
Recently Governor Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa state formally announced his defection from the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All progressives Congress (APC). This adds to the number of opposition governors, mainly from the PDP who have defected to the APC.
Before Fintiri; Governors Sheriff Oborevwori, Peter Mbah, Umo Eno, Douye Diri, Agbu Kefas, Caleb Muftwang and Siminalaye Fubara of Delta, Enugu, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Taraba, Plateau, Rivers states respectively have all dumped the PDP for the APC while Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf of Kano state also left the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) for the APC.
With this development, of the 36 states of the federation, the APC now controls 30 states, while the PDP has three, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) controls one, just as the Labour Party (LP) and the Accord (A) parties control one state each.
On paper this overwhelming numerical advantage makes the APC the party to beat in the forthcoming general elections in 2027. Given the manner politics is played in Nigeria, the governors are considered a very formidable group who in most cases help to determine who actually wins an election. Usually, they have a lot of resources at their disposal and they freely deploy such to make it easier for the candidate of their choice to emerge victorious.
However, what appears to be a disruption of that tradition happened in the 2023 elections where the relatively known Labour Party without any state governor, no notable members of the National and State Assemblies gave the two major political parties; the APC and the PDP a run for their money. The magic was that they offered a platform to the former governor of Anambra state, Peter Obi to contest the presidential election.
Obi who was not taken seriously initially by the bigger political parties was able to galvanize Nigerians especially the youths from all parts of the country to rally behind him. His message which resonated among the people was his message of doing things differently from the way the average politician does.
Though he did not win the election, he was however not disgraced and that has continued to give a glimmer of hope that eventually somebody can still win an election provided he was able to sell his message to the people, irrespective of whether he has governors behind him or not.
Nevertheless, it is not in doubt that in the 2027 election, the odds largely favour President Bola Tinubu and his APC. Apart from being the government in power, with 30 state governors and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) firmly under their control, they are clear favourites to emerge victorious. If the recently held Area Council Elections in the FCT are anything to go by, the APC did so well winning five out of the six local government areas. They also won most of the seats in the bye-elections that equally took place in Kano and Rivers states.
But while the defections may seem to be a show of strength, there are fears in certain quarters that the party may implode shortly after its planned National Conventions coming up in March. Already, in some states, there are factions that have emerged, with each of them claiming to be the group that should be handed the party structures to.
For instance, in Abia state, while the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu who is arguably the highest political figure from the South East believes he should control the party in his state, Senator Orji kalu does not seem to be comfortable with that. This has led to the party to be factionalized in the state. In Benue state, there has been no love lost between Governor Hyacinth Alia and the secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Sen. George Akume over who should control the party in the state. In Zamfara state, already there are crises as many stakeholders have cried out over their alleged denial of the opportunity to participate in the recently conducted nationwide e-registration exercise. For instance, a chieftain of the party, Dr. Sani Shinkafi has repeatedly said that the Minister of State for Defence, Bello Matawalle has blocked him from registering because he fears he has the ambition to contest for the party’s gubernatorial ticket.
Another problem the party may face is in the states where these defecting governors have now become the leaders. Certainly, those who were seeing themselves as the leaders would be forced to now play a second fiddle which may not go down well with them.
However, one must give it to President Tinubu who has continued to welcome the opposition governors into his party despite the fears in certain quarters that the country may slide into a one party state. Those of them who dumped the PDP are hinging their action on the seemingly intractable crisis rocking the party.
Today there are two factions of the party, both claiming legitimacy. While the group loyal to the three remaining governors led by Tanimu Turaki are claiming to be the authentic party, the group led by FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike who is apparently working for the APC government has refused to let go.
Analysts believe that these defecting governors are moving to safer grounds where they could be guaranteed their ticket to re-contest in 2027. They are not sure which faction that will eventually emerge victorious from the court.
“Contrary to the insinuations that these governors were being given money to induce their defection, there is nothing like that to be best of my knowledge. What is happening is that they are in a give and take relationship with President Tinubu. We all know that the President would do whatever it takes him to retain his seat, he wants to make it easier for himself by accommodating these governors who in turn have been assured of their tickets to contest to also retain their own positions”, said a party chieftain who pleaded anonymity.
There is also another school of thought that believes that the crisis rocking the different opposition parties have the signature of the powers that be. At the moment, there are crisis in the PDP, the LP, the NNPP and just recently, the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Whatever be the case, while President Tinubu and his governors may likely succeed in getting what they want, nobody can categorically predict what will be of the party after the National Convention. This is because many people would be displaced from their current position and that may force them to consider joining the opposition parties. This has been the trend starting even from when the PDP was the ruling party.
Another issue is that this kind of expansion tends to breed arrogance and pride which if not properly handled could lead to a dangerous internal implosion. How the APC handles the other side of this expansion will be seen in the coming days. Fingers crossed.
