By Khaled AbuZeid, PhD
(Is it an “Aspiration for Hydropower” or “Hegemony for Water Power”?
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile has been a controversial project that has muddled waters between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. The project draws the attention of the world to potential unrest in the relations between Ethiopia, on one hand, a key player in the Horn of Africa, and Egypt, on the other hand, a strategic country in the central pivot of the three continents of Africa, Asia, and Europe and one that maintains balance, peace and security in the Arab Region and the Middle East.
Ethiopia’s Violation of International Law
The GERD project that was unilaterally launched by Ethiopia in 1991 on the Blue Nile, the largest tributary of the Nile (the world’s longest river) was seen by Egyptians as a project that took advantage of Egypt’s political vacuum immediately after the forced resignation of its president at that time. The launching of the dam construction without consultation with Egypt was seen as a violation of the principles of international law, the 1997 agreement signed between Ethiopia and Egypt, and the agreement signed between Ethiopia and the United Kingdom, which necessitates consultation with downstream countries on Ethiopian structures that may affect the flows of Nile headwaters through the Blue Nile, Lake Tana, and the Sobat River flowing downstream to Sudan and Egypt. Ethiopia seems to see the Nile river headwaters originating within its territories as a matter of absolute sovereignty and that agreements signed between Ethiopia and Egypt or the United Kingdom on behalf of Egypt and/or Sudan) as non-binding to Ethiopia.
Unfortunately, there was no comprehensive Hydraulic Impact Assessment, Environmental Impact assessment or Socio-economic- Impact Assessment Studies that were conducted on the GERD and publicly shared by Ethiopia, or consulted upon with the’ affected downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan. Even when an international consultant was agreed by the three countries to conduct the joint impact assessment studies, after the fact, the consultant’s joint studies were halted at their inception by Ethiopia, which pressured the consultant to redefine the “baseline conditions” to include Ethiopia’s future plans for additional dams as part of the existing baseline conditions; a tweak of globally agreed terminology that would defeat the whole purpose of the impact assessment studies. Ethiopia’s avoidance to attend the final meeting in a series of USA-World Bank facilitated negotiations in the end of January 2020, and Ethiopia’s announcement to start the filling of the GERD before reaching a final agreement with Egypt and Sudan, may be seen as another breach to international law; since it would be breaching the GERD Declaration of Principles (DOP) signed by the three .countries. The DOP stipulated that the three countries are to agree on guidelines and rules. On the first fitting;, and annual operation of GERD, which means that the first fitting should not, take place without ‘an agreement between the three countries on those guidelines and rules.
What does the Nile and the Blue Nile mean to Egypt?
Unlike any other river in the world, the Nile, and more importantly the Blue Nile, for Egypt is a matter of life and death. The Greek Historian, Herodotus, once said that “Egypt is the Gift of the Nile”. To put this statement in technical terms, let’s examine the following factual information. Much of the Nile waters flowing to Egypt ‘originate in Ethiopia through the Blue Nile, Atbara, and Sobat tributaries. Similarly, a large percentage of the Nile water allocated and/or actually being used by Egypt and Sudan comes through the Blue Nile. The Average annual flow of Blue Nile is about one Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) per year. Theoretically speaking, one may also consider that the Blue Nile flows out of Ethiopia represent in volume, 9.’% of Egypt’s historical water uses of the Nile. The Nile River is the only source of renewable water for Egypt, which depends on the Nile in meeting about 90 per cent of its water needs. GERD and the Ethiopian attitude in dealing with the issue are threatening the destiny of Egypt’s lifeline, livelihood and national security
Infringement attempts on Egypt’s BCM Water Rights
Although the announced objective of the GERD is for hydropower generation, yet the Ethiopian strategy in negotiating, filling and operating rules since the unilateral decision to build the dam, has showed procrastination not to reach an agreement, which may suggest a far more different objective than hydropower generation. Almost a year had passed without reaching an agreement with downstream Egypt and Sudan on-filling and operating the GERD in a way that doesn’t cause significant harm Although the announced objective of the GERD is hydropower, supposedly a non-consumptive use, however there is no official commitment from Ethiopia not to use the water behind the Dam for consumptive use purposes such as irrigated agriculture, industrial and others. Nevertheless, studies have shown- that, due to the exaggerated BCM capacity of the GERD reservoir design and the anticipated operational rules to maximize hydropower generation, the accumulative impacts of the associated seepage and evaporation losses from the reservoir behind the GERD Dam would have negative effects on the water available to Egypt.
Ethiopia is endowed with an abundance of rainfall, while Egypt, according to United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO), is considered the country with the lowest rainfall rate in the world. Ethiopia’s direct rainfall (Green Water) in its consumptive uses, and on river flows (Blue Water) in hydropower generation, whereas Egypt is the most downstream country on the Nile River shared by 11 countries, and it depends, for its consumptive and non-consumptive uses, on the Nile River flows (Blue Water) originating outside its political boundaries and running through its desert lands. That’s why, for food production, Ethiopia mainly depends on rain fed agriculture, while Egypt mainly depends on irrigated agriculture. This is also reflected in Ethiopia’s largest livestock population in Africa with over 1.7 million heads, feeding on vast rain fed grazing lands, while Egypt, due to its water scarcity, is importing the majority of its livestock and meat products, and is the largest importer of wheat in the world.
Ethiopia’s water abundance allows it to grow its own food as opposed to Egypt and even to export more virtual water than what Egypt could export to make available some of the necessary funds for importing lower value food products. Both countries have been surviving on varied dependencies on different types of waters; upstream Ethiopia depends more on Green water from direct rainfall, some of which is within the Nile basin, while downstream Egypt depends only on Blue Water from the Nile River itself. Moreover, a water scarce country like Egypt has to spend more money than an abundant water country like Ethiopia to provide for its food needs.
Egypt’s renewable water resources is lower than that of Ethiopia. The vast difference in natural climatic conditions between upstream and downstream in the Nile Basin created these large difference in water abundance in Ethiopia and water scarcity in Egypt. Similar natural climatic condition created the Trans boundary Nile River originating in the Ethiopian highlands and the Equatorial Plateau upstream and running downstream through the deserts of Egypt. Egypt adapted to these harsh conditions and depended on the River Nile for ages without problems. But what could create a problem, is when water abundant countries upstream attempt to infringe on downstream Egypt’s scarce water resources.
The author is CEDARE Regional Director of Water Resources, Arab Water Council and a Professor of Water Resources.
It’s the power of nature that resulted in varied dependencies on green water in the basin for upstream versus blue water in the river itself for downstream. It would be unfair to have an abundant amount of green water and still have an eye on the neighbours’ little amounts of blue water! “You can’t have the cake and eat it too!” Riparian countries within a shared River Basin should not ignore their own renewable “Green Water” and rain fed potential within the Basin, to fight over border countries’ “Blue Water” rivers existing uses, especially if it’s their neighbour’s only piece of cake!
Africa and the World expects Ethiopia to negotiate with Egypt and other interested stakeholders on this water issue with the spirit of understanding, African Unity and cooperation and being one’s brother’s keeper.
The author is CEDARE Regional Director of Water Resources, Arab Water Council and a Professor of Water Resources.
