Osun as glimmer of hope and the hard lessons for 2027

Wednesday Column By Egena Sunday Ode

Being the last off-cycle governorship election before 2027, the Osun poll held on Saturday, August 15, 2025 was meant to serve as a mirror. Nigerians watched closely for clues on what to expect in the next general elections. The stakes were high, not just for the 15 candidates on the ballot, but for INEC, security agencies, and for the credibility of our democracy itself.

By the time the votes were counted and INEC declared Governor Ademola Adeleke winner, the immediate tension in Osun had eased. Streets that had been tense for weeks breathed again. President Bola Tinubu’s early Sunday call to congratulate Adeleke also helped. It was read by many as a masterstroke in political maturity, and it punctured the “federal might” narrative that had trailed the build-up. Days earlier, the President had also directed the EFCC to vacate a court order freezing Osun state accounts, a move that further signaled neutrality from the centre.

But if the outcome brought calm, the road to August 15 did little to inspire confidence that we have broken from 25 years of troubled electoral practice.

The build-up was anything but peaceful. It was a season of brickbats, accusations, and blood. Media reports quoted the two leading parties in the state making grave allegations. The ruling Accord Party claimed it lost no fewer than 20 supporters. The APC, the main opposition, alleged 40 of its members were killed. That is a cumulative figure of 60 lives, if true, lost not in war but in the contest for power in one state.

More troubling was the viral clip and reports credited to a serving Senator, Francis Fadahunsi, in which he was alleged to have told supporters to “deal with” members of Accord. The Senator has since denied the claim, saying his words were misrepresented. Nigerians, however, are no longer naive about such denials. In a polity where language is often weaponized, leaders must weigh every word. The Osun experience again shows that reckless rhetoric has consequences, and it gives thugs and extremists a license.

The security response matched the fear. The Nigeria Police Force deployed about 15,000 personnel. The Civil Defence Corps, DSS, and other agencies were also on ground. Their presence helped contain violence on election day, but it also confirmed a sad truth: in Nigeria, we now plan elections like military operations. When the cost of holding a vote includes thousands of armed men, armored vehicles, and helicopters, then democracy has become too expensive and too dangerous.

Despite that, election day itself was markedly calmer. Voters turned out. INEC officials showed up early in many polling units. The BVAS worked in most places. Results were uploaded, and the process produced a clear winner. For that, INEC and the security agencies deserve credit. After years of being the whipping boy, the Commission has earned a pass mark in Osun. That matters because confidence is the currency of elections, and the opposition, having won in an APC-led federal government, will feel a bit more assured going into 2027.

President Tinubu himself set the tone before the vote, calling Osun a “test case” for 2027. If that is the standard, then there are lessons we must take seriously.

First, security planning must start earlier and focus more on prevention. Deploying 15,000 men after threats have been made is reactive. The real work is in intelligence, in prosecuting political violence, and in holding leaders accountable for incitement. The alleged killings during the build-up cannot be swept under the rug. The Police and the National Human Rights Commission must publish findings and ensure prosecution. Impunity is why violence recurs every four years.

Second, INEC must build on Osun and scale up. Technology helped. BVAS and IReV reduced the room for ballot stuffing and result manipulation in many areas. But the system still glitched in some places, and voter education on how to use the devices remains poor in rural communities. For 2027, INEC should begin statewide voter education now, not three months to the election. It should also audit BVAS performance in Osun, fix identified failures, and expand its backup systems. Nigerians will not accept “server issues” as an excuse in a presidential election.

Third, we must confront vote buying with the same energy we deploy against ballot snatching. In Osun, there were persistent reports of money changing hands at polling units, in the form of cash, food items, and “transport.” It is now the most subtle and most damaging form of electoral malpractice because it attacks the voter’s conscience. INEC, political parties, civil society, and the media must run a sustained campaign on the dangers of vote selling. Parties must also be sanctioned when caught. A democracy where the highest bidder wins is not a democracy.

Fourth, political maturity must be institutionalized. Governor Adeleke’s post-election olive branch to the opposition, specifically his call for APC’s Munirudeen Oyebamiji to join hands to industrialize Osun, is the right tone. Governance should not end at the polling unit. Tinubu’s congratulatory call reinforces that culture. But we need more than gestures. Party leaders should sign peace accords and be bound by them. Candidates who lose should be encouraged to go to court, not the streets. And winners must resist the temptation to govern only their supporters.

Fifth, the media and citizens have a role. The Osun coverage showed how quickly rumors spread and how violence narratives can become self-fulfilling. Fact-checking, responsible reporting, and citizens’ refusal to share unverified audio or video will help de-escalate 2027.

Some will argue that one state election cannot predict a national one. That is fair. Osun is not Nigeria. The dynamics, the size, and the interests in a presidential election are different and far more intense. Yet every journey begins with a step. Osun proves that with political will, better planning, and a bit of restraint from politicians, elections can be peaceful and their outcomes accepted.

The hope I see is this: the people   voted, their votes counted, and power will be transferred without a crisis. That is the barest minimum, but in our history it is still progress.

For 2027 to be better, we must treat Osun not as an end but as a pilot. INEC must upgrade BVAS and train ad-hoc staff better. Security agencies must investigate pre-election violence with the same seriousness as election-day offenses. Political parties must discipline members who use hate language. And voters must understand that selling a vote for N5,000 today is selling four years of good governance tomorrow.

Osun has given us a glimmer. Whether it becomes a floodlight in 2027 depends on what we do between now and then. The work starts now, not in December when we’ll have only a few days to the polls.