Osun Poll: Violence, INEC gaps threaten credible election — KDI

The Kimpact Development Initiative(KDI )has identified violence, gaps in Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) preparedness and concerns over security neutrality as major threats to the credibility of the August 15, 2026 Osun State governorship election.

The civil society organisation also identified 12 local government areas in the state as high-risk locations, warning that escalating violence could suppress voter turnout in some communities.

The Executive Director of KDI, Bukola Idowu, disclosed this on Monday at the stakeholder presentation of the 2026 Osun Election Integrity and Security Assessment: Electoral Pressures, Risk Scenarios and Strategic Mitigation Priorities.

Idowu said credible elections were not secured on election day alone, stressing that preparations must begin weeks and months before voting.

“We are gathered because credible elections are not secured on election day alone. They are secured in the days, weeks and months before voting, through good intelligence, impartial institutions, responsible political conduct, trusted communication, prepared citizens and timely preventive action,” he said.

He said the assessment was not merely a report launch but a call for stakeholders to turn evidence into coordinated action before emerging risks developed into incidents and crises.

According to him, KDI identified 12 LGAs as high-risk areas and examined variables that could trigger violence during the election.

He listed INEC preparedness, logistics and the functionality of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System as some of the major concerns.

“If you recall what we had during the mock accreditation that was done just last week, one of the things we have seen is that, look, they need to tighten up because we are going into a competitive election, that everybody is charged in that election,” Idowu said.

The KDI boss also raised concerns about the neutrality and professionalism of security agencies during the election.

He recalled the recent removal of the Commissioner of Police in the state, saying the development had raised questions about the neutrality of security agencies.

“How the police and how the security agency will conduct themselves in that election is something that we need to keep an eye on because that alone, the conduct or the professionalism of the security agency alone, is a potential for violence,” he said.

Idowu further warned that violence could be deliberately used to suppress votes by creating fear among residents in affected communities.

He said, “The violence is not about violence alone; it is strategic in terms of suppressing votes in some areas.”

“When you create fear in the heart of people and they will not come out on election day, that is vote suppression. And that is not what we want to see,” he added.

The KDI executive director said voter turnout in Osun had remained relatively low, noting that the last election recorded about 43 per cent turnout.

He expressed concern that insecurity could further discourage voters from exercising their franchise.

Idowu also described the Osun governorship election as a major test for Nigeria ahead of the 2027 general elections.

He said the election would be the first competitive poll in which the Electoral Act signed into law by President Bola Tinubu would be tested in practice.

“This will be the first time in a competitive election that the Electoral Act that President Tinubu signed into law will be used and enforced,” he said.

He said issues around margin of lead, results management, IReV transmission and possible election tribunal proceedings would make the election particularly significant.

Also speaking, a retired Assistant Inspector-General of Police, Abutu Yaro, blamed political actors for much of the violence associated with Nigerian elections.

Yaro urged political actors to exercise restraint and avoid actions capable of destabilising the electoral process.

“To ensure that the election is free, fair and transparent, I think one of the many things is that it starts from the conduct of the political actors themselves,” he said.

The former police officer said ordinary voters were not interested in violence, but that political actors often hijacked the process for their preferred outcomes.

“The farmers, the peasants, the drivers, the market women who vote or participate in the process, they don’t have any ulterior motive or aggravated motive at all,” he said.

“Theirs is to pleasantly and leisurely cast their vote and expect the outcome to reflect their wishes.”

Yaro also warned that inadequate election logistics could trigger public anger and undermine confidence in the process.

He called for adequate and timely provision of vehicles, welfare, voting materials, PVCs, electronic gadgets and other equipment required for the election.

“A situation whereby people stay in the rain, in the sun, for three or four hours without the arrival of voting materials… certainly public anger will be provoked and many things will go outside control,” he said.

Yaro further described the spread of unverified reports during elections as a major security threat.

“It is important for all of us to exercise restraint, particularly media practitioners,” he said.

“Unverified reports and slanderous use of media space for the purpose of election outcome is the greatest security threat to our system.”

He urged conventional and social media practitioners to verify election-related information before publication.

Yaro also advised members of the public to rely on information from verified sources, particularly the Independent National Electoral Commission and the police.

KDI said the assessment was based on a citizen survey of 3,275 respondents across the 30 LGAs in Osun, 15 key informant interviews, incident monitoring between October 2025 and August 2026, media monitoring, field observation and secondary research.

The organisation said the findings were intended as an early-warning and decision-support tool to enable stakeholders to take preventive action before the election.

Idowu urged political parties, INEC, security agencies, the media and other stakeholders to translate the report’s recommendations into concrete actions.

“The credibility of this election will depend not only on the absence of violence, but also on whether citizens can participate freely, whether institutions act impartially and competently, whether information is timely and truthful, and whether lawful outcomes command public confidence,” he said.