By Jude Opara
As political parties get set for their primary elections in the month of May, all eyes are on the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC), to see how they will navigate the delicate process which usually signals the beginning of crisis in most political parties.
Presently the ADC appears to be the only viable opposition to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), since the faction of the Peoples Democratic party (PDP) loyal to the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike may be working for the reelection of President Bola Tinubu.
With the ADC coalition boasting of some of the political heavyweights in the country, political analysts are eager to know who would emerge as the presidential candidate of the party for the forthcoming election which comes up on January 16, 2027.
So far, there are four formidable aspirants who have indicated their interest to contest the presidential election. Interestingly, the three top opposition candidates in the 2023 election are all in the ADC today. Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar who came second on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), former governor of Anambra state, Peter Obi, who placed third flew the flag of the Labour Party (LP) and former governor of Kano state, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) who came fourth.
While Atiku and Obi have made public their intentions to run, Kwankwaso has not. Rather, he is being rumoured to want to pair with Obi as Vice President. Other notable aspirants are former governor of Rivers state, Rotimi Amaechi who was a presidential aspirant in the APC in 2022 and renowned economist, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen who was also an aspirant in the PDP in 2022.
Hayatu-Deen threw his hat into the ring at a press conference on Thursday where he declared his intention to also contest on the platform of the ADC.
The ADC has shown much promise that some analysts believe that the ruling APC is not too comfortable to have it stay coordinated.
Presently, the fate of the party is still hanging in the balance after the former Deputy National Chairman; Nafiu Bala Gombe went to court to claim he should be the National Chairman, after the resignation of former Chairmen, Chief Ralph Nwosu.
In fact, the party in defiance to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) went ahead to conduct its national convention earlier in the month.
Recently, the Supreme Court reserved its judgement on the leadership struggle in the party, it’s hoped that the apex court will not wait for too long before giving its verdict, so as to give the party the time to plan, given the fact that the processes that would be observed before the general elections have begun. Most political parties are already scheduling their timetable for the party primary elections.
Secondly, giving their verdict in good time will equally afford those intending to contest the next election to decide what option that would be left for them, should the Supreme Court rule in favour of the Gombe faction which is already alleged to be working for the APC.
While the ADC stakeholders and leadership led by former Senate President, David Mark have insisted that the APC and the presidency were instrumental to their crisis, they must show leadership by ensuring they manage their primary election in the most matured manner.
The truth is that it’s only one person that will emerge as the presidential candidate. This means that others must be ready to bury their ambition and sincerely file behind the eventual flag bearer. This is the sacrifice the aspirants must be prepared to make.
In Nigeria there is this unwritten agreement that power should rotate between the North and the South. Many analysts have argued that since the incumbent president is from the South, that only southerners should contest to replace him, even if the region has only one more tenure of four years to go.
There is this strong belief out there that if a northern candidate emerges, that President Tinubu will have a very easy ride back to Aso Rock. Those who are of this school of thought say they would rather have Tinubu to get another four years so as to complete the eighth years for the South.
Reports say the aspirants have been talking to themselves to see if they could on their own agree to support one of them so that the primary election will be a consensus.
The fear is palpable that if the ADC goes into a direct primary, the party could implode because like every other election, there could be incidents of vote buying and the resultant bad blood and possible implosion.
Some party faithful have been appealing to Atiku Abubakar to consider withdrawing from the race and instead support a younger aspirant. They are making this appeal on two cardinal fronts. One is that there is the need to retain power in the South in the spirit of fairness and equity and secondly, considering that the former vice president is in his late 70s.
Recently, former governor of Cross River state, Donald Duke in a post urged Atiku to be a statesman by dropping him ambition to contest the 2027 election. Duke further posited that President Tinubu won the 2023 election because Atiku who then ran on the ticket of the PDP inadvertently worked against the opposition parties.
But it appears that Atiku who had tried six times to become the president of Nigeria is unrelenting. Last week, he appeared on a television programme to announce that the 2027 will be his last attempt. He has doubled down with the appointment of zonal coordinators for the campaign ahead of the primary election.
However, Atiku’s low point is the fact that many Nigerians strongly believe that there may be little or no difference between him and President Tinubu. Apart from the fact that both are aging, they are equally not known to be frugal when it comes to managing public funds. To this effect, many Nigerians may likely choose to continue with a Tinubu instead of an Atiku whose leadership style may not be different from that of Tinubu.
For Peter Obi, the odds seem to favour him given the fact that he is from the South and also younger than Atiku. He is believed to have retained the loyalty of most of his supporters anchored on the “Obibients movement” who do not really belong to any political party.
The recent alliance with the former governor of Kano state, Rabiu Kwankwaso is another plus for the Obi aspiration. Many analysts believe that given the state of the nation’s economy, the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party who is also known for his frugality in the management of public funds is the right man for the job.
Kwankwaso is a power broker in Kano and some other parts of the North West region, his teaming up with Obi who has a strong hold in the South East and South South will be a force to reckon with. His supporters believe that the only candidate that could unsettle Tinubu is Obi.
Since after the 2023 election, Peter Obi is said to have come under severe attacks and criticism by the APC administration and their followers. Some analysts believe that Obi was right when he declared that he was aware that the government does not want him to be on the ballot in the 2027 election.
Rotimi Amaechi who was the governor of Rivers state from 2007 to 2015 is another aspirant to watch. He was a staunch member of the APC until after he lost the party’s presidential ticket to Tinubu prior to the 2023 elections.
Though his support base is largely unknown, Amaechi is a politician you cannot ignore given his wide reach across the country.
The former Minister for Transportation under the administration of Late President Muhammadu Buhari made some incursion in the North where built a number of notable infrastructure.
For the latest entrant, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen his chances would be measured by a number of indices. A notable economist and industrial developer, Hayatu-Deen has all what it takes to pilot the affairs of the country. Listening to him alone is enough to convince you that he is a man who knows what he would be expected to do as president.
However, like Atiku he is also from the North which means that his picking the ADC ticket could make it easier for President Tinubu because of the same sentiment of power rotation between the North and South.
One good thing is that Hayatu-Deen has promised to file behind any candidate the party would settle for in the spirit of sportsmanship.
All said and done, the Supreme Court at the moment holds the fate of the ADC and its numerous supporters, only the apex court will determine whether the party will be on the ballot or not. Nigerians are waiting!
