By Musa Baba Adamu
Political analyst Abubakar Turaki has cautioned the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) against assuming that its control of 31 state governments and a membership strength of nearly 13 million would guarantee victory in the 2027 general elections.
Turaki made the observation during an appearance on S24 TV on Monday, where he discussed the political dynamics ahead of the 2027 polls and the controversy surrounding the chanting of “On Your Mandate We Shall Stand” during President Bola Tinubu’s budget presentation at the National Assembly.
On the controversy, the analyst argued that if President Tinubu was uncomfortable with the chanting, he could have simply instructed those involved to stop.
“If the President does not want this kind of chanting, he could have simply asked them to keep quiet,” he said.
Drawing parallels with the 2015 presidential election, Turaki recalled how former President Goodluck Jonathan lost his re-election bid despite reportedly enjoying the support of between 20 and 24 state governors.
He referenced Jonathan’s memoir, My Transition Hours, and Olusegun Adeniyi’s book, Against the Run of Play, to support his argument that political influence and the number of governors backing a candidate do not necessarily determine electoral outcomes.
“Having 31 state governors and almost 13 million APC members does not automatically translate into winning the 2027 election,” Turaki stated.
The analyst also raised concerns about alleged divisions within the ruling party, suggesting that some individuals publicly associated with the APC could be working against its interests behind the scenes.
He cited remarks attributed to Senator Ali Ndume, who reportedly warned that some politicians wear the APC cap during the day but work against the party in the evening.
“Senator Ndume made it clear that there are people wearing the APC cap in the morning, but in the evening they are working against the party,” he said.
Turaki further questioned the transparency of internal party democratic processes, referring to videos that allegedly showed difficulties with vote counting during party activities across different political parties.
He expressed concern that such incidents raised questions about the credibility of internal electoral processes, stressing that vote counting should not present difficulties.
“I wonder if a full-grown adult cannot count. It is simply arithmetic. We all saw the videos. It cut across all the political parties that conducted their activities,” he added.
He maintained that the 2027 general elections should not be viewed as a contest that can be determined solely by party membership figures, the number of governors or political control.
Turaki described the forthcoming elections as a significant political contest, urging Nigerians to expect an interesting electoral process.
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