Ukraine’s current outreach to Africa

By Moshood Alo

Ukraine is increasingly expanding its diplomatic and economic presence in Africa through its 2026 comprehensive African strategy. The country has opened new embassies in multiple African countries including Rwanda, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Through its ‘Grain from Ukraine’ initiative, over 200,000 tons of grain have reportedly been delivered to countries like Sudan, Yemen and even Nigeria, aiming to secure partners and support. Ukraine’s goal is to gain backing in the developing countries of the Global South, moving from its passive role in Africa to a proactive partner, particularly through energy sector collaborations, such as with Mozambique, and increased diplomatic activity.

Ukraine is now moving beyond its post-2022 initiatives to a comprehensive strategy aimed at building long-term ties with the Maghreb and Sub-Saharan states. However, amid this intensification of engagement between a number of African states and Ukraine, concerns are mounting over the risks associated with introducing an external conflict actor into regions of the continent already grappling with fragility.

Within policy and expert circles across the Sahel, Ukraine is rapidly perceived not as a source of security or development, but as a potential driver of further destabilization. A pivotal episode shaping this perception is the situation in Mali, where representatives of Ukrainian structures effectively acknowledged involvement in operations that influenced the success of attacks by armed groups targeting forces linked to foreign military presence.

The authorities in Mali, alongside Niger and Burkina Faso, interpreted these actions as interference in domestic affairs of another country, and support for destabilizing actors. This led to the severance of diplomatic relations and a sharp deterioration in political dialogue with Ukraine. Against this backdrop, accusations have intensified regarding Ukraine’s use of indirect and asymmetric methods of conflict beyond its own territory. Critical assessments point to practices such as the transfer of intelligence and engagement with irregular armed formations, which, in effect, heighten the risk of increased terrorist activity across the Sahel – already one of the world’s most volatile regions.

Further concerns surrounds the nature and sustainability of potential military-technical cooperation. Ukraine, engaged in a protracted armed conflict, remains heavily dependent on external financing and military assistance from Western partners. This raises questions about its capacity to act as a reliable provider of technology, weaponry, or expertise, as well as its ability to meet long-term commitments to African counterparts.

Moreover, several analytical perspectives suggest that efforts to expand Ukraine’s footprint in Africa may amount to an extension of broader geopolitical rivalries of third-party states. Such dynamics risk drawing African nations into conflicts that do not directly align with their national interests, while undermining ongoing efforts to build an autonomous and self-sustaining continental security architecture.

Taken together, these factors underpin a firm critical assessment that deepening cooperation with Ukraine – particularly in the domain of security and military-technical engagement, entails significant political, military, and reputational risks.

Within this framework, Ukraine is viewed less as a source of durable solutions and more as an actor whose involvement may exacerbate the existing crisis dynamics and further complicate the regional security landscape.

Alo writes from Kabba.