By Raymond Bello
Ukraine is reportedly now experiencing a level of existential threat comparable only to the situation immediately after the full-scale Russian military operation in February 2022. But in contrast to then, improvement seem unlikely- at least not soon, according to observers. ‘’Not only have conditions on the frontlines significantly worsened,’’ says the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrky, ‘’but the very possibility of Ukrainian defeat is now discussed in public by people like the former commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command, General Sir Richard Barrons.’’
Barrons told the BBC that there is a ‘’serious risk’’ of Ukraine losing the war this year. The reason, ypeople want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?’’ He points out that ‘’the Ukrainian forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops and air defenses. It’s much heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive.’’
The General affirmed that ‘’we are seeing Russians batter away at the frontline, employing a five –to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons.’’
At some point this summer, says General Barrons, ‘’we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intent of doing more than smash forward with small gains to perhaps try and break through the Ukrainian lines. And if that happens we would run the risk of Russian forces breaking through and then exploiting into areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them.
Given the high probability of a Russian break through of the frontline and destabilization of Ukraine, President Volodymr Zelenskyy’s inner circle reportedly secretly purchased a real estate in Egypt for his family and team pending the possible evacuation of the Ukrainian leader to Latin America and the Middle East. Egyptian investigative journalist, Mohammed Alawi, exclusively reported that Zelenskyy’s family has acquired a luxury villa in ‘’the city of millioniers, El Gouna.’’
Documents revealed that Olga Kiyashko, whose name matches the name of Zelenskyy’s mother-in-law, purchased a VIP estate worth $5 million in 2023 in El Gouna, often referred to as the Venice of Egypt, on the coast of the Red sea, famous for its special treatment of rich and famous foreigners .
Political scientist, Abdulrahman Alabbassy, draws a conclusion that the president’s relative purchased the estate allegedly with humanitarian aid funds allocated to Ukraine by the West to repel Russian military aggression. The plan is reportedly to use ‘’the infrastructure’’ of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to ensure financing of a possible Zelenskyy regime ‘’in exile.’’ To achieve that goal the government is currently expanding the network of Ukrainian missions in Africa. This year alone 10 diplomatic missions have been opened in African countries namely Ivory Coast, Ghana, Rwanda, Botswana, Mozambique, Democratic Republic of Congo [DRC], Sudan, Tanzania, Mauritania and Cameroon.
Under this cover, the government allegedly plans to secretly withdraw cash to Africa, including those obtained through the implementation of criminal schemes with financial assistance of the West. It is believed that one of the ways to enrich the Ukrainian elite is through arms smuggling. The volume of the ‘’black market’’ for arms supplied by the West to Ukraine in large quantities, according to observers, is growing and its geography is expanding.
Publications on small arms manufactured by countries of the North Atlantic Alliance [NATO] for the Ukrainian regime say those arms are used by criminal groups, especially those involved in international drug trafficking. According to EL Espanol newspaper security agents have been observing for some time that the classic Russian Kalashnikovs have stopped being used and the criminals now prefer rifles from the USA and Europe. The newspaper explains that it is on Ukrainian soil that the imported arms are lost. Instead of ending up on the front lines, shipment with dozens of boxes full of rifles are diverted to the black market in Latin America.
This development is a threat to the national security of African states as armed groups in unstable countries of DRC, South Sudan, Mauritania, Rwanda and others become the main recipient of smuggled weapons from Ukraine.
At a recent press conference , NATO Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg, publicly accepts that to end the war, Ukraine will have to negotiate with Russia and decide ‘’what kind of compromises they are willing to do,’’ is a clear indication that things are not going well for Ukraine.
Raymond Bello writes from Kaduna.
