The World Bank has just published a sobering report about Nigeria. The report “Of roads less travelled: Assessing the potential for migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth” said the number of Nigerians active in the labour force fell by 20 million between 2018 and 2020.
It said prior to “the significant drop” in active labour force recorded in that period, there was “considerable growth” in the working-age population and the active labour force population from 2010. According to the report, the country is going through one of its “worst unemployment crises” in recent times.
It said, “Between 2014 and 2020, Nigeria’s working-age population grew from 102 million to 122 million, growing at an average rate of approximately three per cent per year. Similarly, Nigeria’s active labour force population, i.e., those willing and able to work among the working-age population, grew from 73 million in 2014 to z with scarce domestic employment opportunities, was creating high rates of unemployment, particularly for Nigeria’s youth.
It said due to the rate of unemployment and other socio-economic challenges facing Nigerians in the last 10 years, there had been a massive increase in the number of citizens seeking asylum and refugee status in other countries. The report said, “Combined with significant demographic changes and increased aspirations of the youth, Nigeria’s unemployment crisis is creating migratory pressure in the economy.
“Unemployment is considered to be a key driver of migration. Consequently, multiple surveys show that the number of Nigerians who are looking to migrate internationally is high and increasing,” the report said. It added that the number of international migrants from Nigeria had increased threefold since 1990, from 446,806 in 1990 to 1,438,331 in 2019.
However, it noted that notwithstanding this trend, the share of international migrants in proportion to Nigeria’s population had been “considerably constant”, with a slight increase from 0.5 per cent in 1990 to 0.7 per cent in 2019. “An important trend that is observed in the data is the rise in the number of refugees and asylum seekers from Nigeria. The share of refugees and asylum seekers from Nigeria has increased drastically in the last decade, growing from 27,557 in 2010 to 408,078 in 2019,” it said.
The bank noted that although the country seemed to be reaping dividends from the success of its citizens in the diaspora, which contributed five per cent of its Gross Domestic Product in 2019, “the narrative around international migration to the discourse on international migration is worrisome.” It added, “What is worrying, however, is the increase in the number of forced and irregular migrants from Nigeria.”
While the fears expressed by the World Bank may be reasonable, it should be noted that the world is increasingly becoming a global village where competent labour is sourced and attracted across countries of the world in line with the international practices of free trade and free movement of people with skills in specialized fields. Sports, for instance, is a case in point where athletes ply their trade without barrier of borders.
It is fair to state that the World Bank may not be aware of the Buhari administration’s job creation strategies, including programmes for the empowerment of traders, farmers, market women and SMEs. This may not have yielded a perfect outcome and there could be room for improvement, considering Nigeria’s huge population of over 200 million people vis a vis decades of economic downturn.
The government’s aim is to “lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty” in 10 years. And it has worked out strategies to make the vision realisable. Of course, it will take time for them to bear fruits. Yes, the government has only two years to go before the next elections. But we must not forget that governance is a continuum. If the present APC administration does not get reelected in 2023, its successor should be able to sustain the gains of the former. This is how governance should work irrespective of party affiliation.
