2027: Opposition division, not hardship, could determine Tinubu’s fate- Wike

By Stanley Onyekwere

Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, has argued that the division of opposition votes between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar contributed significantly to President Bola Tinubu’s victory in the 2023 presidential election, insisting that the prevailing economic hardship may not be enough to defeat the president in 2027.

Wike made the remarks while speaking to selected journalists during a media parley in Abuja, where he also defended his decision to support Tinubu’s re-election bid despite remaining a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

According to the minister, the 2023 election demonstrated that opposition vote splitting could be more decisive than public dissatisfaction with the government.

Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election with 8,794,726 votes, followed by Atiku with 6,984,520 votes, while Obi polled 6,101,533 votes.

Wike argued that if a substantial portion of the votes secured by Obi had gone to Atiku, the outcome could have been different.

“Look at the entire votes of Obi that would have gone to Atiku, all gone,” he said.

The former Rivers State governor also pointed to voting patterns in parts of the South-South, which he described as traditionally favourable to the PDP.

He cited Cross River and Edo, claiming that sections of the PDP structures in the two states supported Obi rather than Atiku.

“The South-South ought to be a PDP stronghold that would have made Atiku win the election. In Cross River, we say support Obi. APC took second in the state. In Edo, they supported Obi,” Wike said.

He contrasted those states with Rivers, where he said he worked against both Atiku and Obi and supported Tinubu.

“Then in Rivers State, since I am here, we said no to Obi and Atiku. We supported the president,” he added.

Wike’s assessment comes as the three politicians remain central to discussions about the 2027 presidential election, with opposition parties seeking strategies to prevent a repeat of the vote fragmentation that characterised the last presidential poll.

The minister also questioned whether Obi’s strong public reception, particularly among younger Nigerians, would necessarily translate into votes at the polling stations.

“When he appeared at the NBA conference, they’re shouting Obi. For you, he’s popular. When the proper mathematics comes to the table, we’ll know,” Wike said.

Beyond opposition unity, Wike dismissed suggestions that the economic hardship and insecurity currently confronting Nigerians would automatically translate into votes against Tinubu in 2027.

He acknowledged that hunger and insecurity would inevitably feature prominently in the election campaign but argued that Nigerian voters do not make electoral decisions solely on the basis of prevailing economic conditions.