By Hameed M. Bello, PhD
The address by President Muhammadu Buhari to the Progressive Governors Forum at the Consultative meeting held at the Presidential Villa Abuja on Tuesday May 31, 2022 was loaded with textual practices that inspire a Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA).
CDA is a scholarly method of textual analysis that seeks to make more transparent certain translucent or opaque expressions in text and talk which can obscure meaning and understanding. It tries to establish the link between language use, power and ideology, and its goal usually, is to unravel the political motivation in discourse. CDA assumes that power relations are discursive – In other words, power is transmitted and practised through Discourse, and we saw a demonstration of that in the text of Buhari’s speech to the APC governors. CDA scholars, Professors Norman Fairclough and Ruth Wodak, contend that we can indeed study ‘how power relations are exercised and negotiated in Discourse, ‘ and part of the aims of CDA is to expose meanings that are either not stated, or are hidden but may be intended and could be deduced. It is an objective of CDA to reveal ideological presuppositions that can make meaning more manifest and enrich knowledge and understanding. David Machin and Andrea Mayr capture it vividly in their book, ‘How To Do Critical Discourse Analysis’ (2012) thus:
“CDA typically analyses news texts, political speeches, advertisements, school books etc, exposing strategies that appear normal or neutral on the surface but which may in fact be ideological and may seek to shape the representation of events and persons for particular ends. The term ‘critical’ therefore means ‘denaturalising’ the language to reveal the kinds of ideas, absences and taken-for-granted assumptions in texts. This will allow us to reveal the kinds of power interests buried in these texts.”
The question is, in what ways does the President’s speech seek to shape the choice of his successor now understood to be his prerogative as the national leader of the APC, the party in power? What has the President’s speech left unsaid and what are the ideas behind them? Are the absences accidental or deliberate textual omissions, and what are their motives? Those are the kind of questions that inspire CDA scholarship.
The President’s speech to the APC governors clearly prepared the ground for a consensus presidential candidate but was silent in disclosing the beneficiary. This presupposes that the president and the APC top guns could have zeroed in on one consensus candidate but are keeping it under wraps for strategic reasons. A CDA can suggest who the preferred presidential candidate of the President is on the strength of his speech.
Overall, the president’s carefully constructed speech could be a textual strategy of commission by omission. The speech however provided enough background that could assist the governors in appreciating the President’s line of thinking in expectation of them doing the needful – to back the candidate anointed by him, the same way they backed his choice of the National Chairman of the Party, in the person Senator Abdullahi Adamu. Adamu who was endorsed by consensus with all other chairmanship aspirants stepping down for him after the President had spoken.
By virtue of Section 84(9) of the Electoral Act 2022 (as amended), “A political party that adopts a consensus candidate shall secure the written consent of all cleared aspirants for the position, indicating their voluntary withdrawal from the race and their endorsement of the consensus candidate.”
The national convention of the governing All Progressives Congress, APC, which will produce the presidential candidate of the party will hold between Monday June 6 and 8 in Abuja, the seat of power. Inside feelers suggest that the President had met with all the cleared Presidential aspirants Saturday, ostensibly to unveil to them party position on preferred consensus presidential candidate. Like it happened during the contest for the chairmanship of the party, the other aspirants will expectedly step down for the anointed presidential candidate at the convention This procedure has become a ‘cherished practice’ of the APC at least from experience.
Relying on the analytical methods of presupposition, context and foreknowledge, added to the cultural practices of the APC, attempt can be made to suggest the preferred consensus presidential candidate, Presupposition as a strategy for concealing information or taking it for granted, is one key way by which speech writers are able to imply meanings without overtly stating them, or present things as taken for granted and stable when infact they are indeed contestable and ideological. As Machin and Mayr observe, presupposition deals with what kind of meaning are assumed as given in a text, or what Faiirclogh calls the ‘preconstructed elements’ in text.
The list of names of the presidential aspirants for screening as listed by APC, including their states, geopolitical zones of origin, and previous political positions held include the following:
From the South-West, we have Robert A. Boroffice (Ondo, Current Senator); Gbolahan B. Bakare (Ogun); Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun, former governor and former Senator); Ahmed B. Tinubu (Lagos, former governor and former Senator); Oladimeji Bankole (Ogun, former Speaker); John Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti, current governor); and Yemi Osinbajo (Lagos/Ogun, Vice President).
Presidential aspirants from the South-East are seven, including Chukwuemeka Uwaezuoke Nwajiuba (Abia, former Minister); Uju Ken-Ohanenye (Anambra);
Nweze David Umahi (Ebonyi, current governor) Ken Nnamani (Enugu, former Senate Prrsident); Ikeobasi Mokelu (Anambra, former Minister); Rochas Anayo Okorocha (Imo, former fovernor, current Senator); and Christopher Onu (Abia, former Minister, former Governor).
From the South-South, the five presidential aspirants are: Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers, former Governor, former Minister, former Speaker); Godswill Obot Akpabio (Akwa Ibom, former Minister, former Governor); Tein Jack-Rich (Rivers); Ben Ayade (Cross River, current governor); and Nicholas Felix (Edo).
The two presidential aspirants from the North West are Badaru Abubakar (current Jigawa State Governor who has already withdrawn his aspiration) and Ahmad Rufai Sani (Zamfara, current Senator and former Governor).
The only Presidential aspirant from the North-East is the current Senate President Ahmad Lawan from Yobe State.
Yahaya Bello, current Governor of Kogi State is the only Presidential aspirant from the North Central.
The National Chairman of the APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu had also dropped the hint that the most credible aspirants could be pronounced as the consensus candidate after a rigorous evaluation, in an apparent endorsement of the President’s body language.
Ideological extracts from Buhari’s speech:
1.”You will all recall that APC came to power at the center in 2015 through a cohesive machinery, notwithstanding its status as the opposition party..”
2. “…The Party has successfully established internal policies that promote continuity and smooth succession plans even at the state and local government levels. For example, first term Governors who have served credibly well have been encouraged to stand for re-election. Similarly, second term Governors have been accorded the privilege of promoting successors that are capable of driving their visions as well as the ideals of the party.”
3.” Our objective must be the victory of our party and our choice of the candidate must be someone who would give the Nigerian masses a sense of victory and confidence even before the elections.”
4. “In keeping with the established internal policies of the Party and as we approach the Convention in a few days, therefore, I wish to solicit the reciprocity and support of the Governors and other stakeholders in picking my successor, who would fly the flag of our party for election into the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2023.
Analysis of extract 1 shows that it is a reminder to the party men and women that APC could not have come to power in 2015 but for the merger of the legacy parties into a political monolith that took over power from then incumbent president of the PDP. It is on record that the South West political structures pulled together by Ahmed Bola Tinubu via the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, played key role in swaying votes for the APC. Perhaps it is now pay back time, or time for the reciprocity referred to by the President’s speech.
In extract 2, in line with the internal practices of the APC, the second term governors have been given a free hand to choose their successors to allow for continuity of policies and programmes of the government in the states. The president is reminding them of their obligation to also give him a free hand to choose his successor to continue with his policies and programmes at the centre. A. Little confusion here as to who the referent is. Osinbajo, aside his statutory role as Vice President for over seven years, has also played the role of acting president on occasions, and is most qualified to carry on with the policies and programmes of President Buhari. Tinubu on the other hand as a national leader of the party is conversant with the ideology of the APC and its social contract with the people. Former minister Rotimi Amaechi, also a former key official of Buhari considered by some as a member of the inner circle played a key role in the emergence of Buhari’s first and second comings. He also fits the bill as someone capable of driving the vision of the President and of the party.
In extract 3, the question is who among the leading aspirants from the South can give the Nigerian masses a sense of victory and confidence even before the elections? This is against the background that key APC stakeholders may be conceding the presidency to the South as gentlemen. Tinubu is known to command respect and followership in the APC, and is a mobiliser of votes, at least from the South West, and can build bridges of alliances across the divides. He can give some sense of victory and confidence if he emerges consensus candidate. On the other hand, Osinbajo commands respect as a loyal vice president. Sentiments in sections of the party suggest that as a Christian cleric and academic, coupled with over seven years experience as Vice President, Osinbajo is most qualified to carry on the leadership trajectory of Buhari, hence the better consensus candidate.
In extract 4, when contextualised, the ‘established internal policies’ Buhari referred to is the consensus arrangements which already produced the APC National Chairman. He is seeking the cooperation of the governors to let him have his way, just as he let them have their way, in his choice of his successor.
Putting all the analysis together, we can draw a tentative conclusion that each of Tinubu and Osinbajo stands the chance of emerging the APC consensus presidential candidate, with Tinubu having a marginal edge. There could be, however, the element of surprise.
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