Food security declared, not delivered

Three years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu declared a state of emergency on food security, the symbolism of treating agriculture as national defence is still battling the grind of inflation, banditry, and logistics collapse. The promise was clear: crash food prices, revive production, and feed 220 million Nigerians without burning scarce dollars. For now, the scorecard remains an interim report.

On paper, Abuja moved quickly. The Ministry was renamed Agriculture and Food Security to signal intent. Dry-season wheat rose from 70,000 hectares to 118,000 in 2023/2024. In March 2025, Nigeria sealed the $1.1 billion Green Imperative Project with Brazil for mechanised equipment, training, and service centres nationwide. Add the John Deere Tractorisation Programme and the Belarus deal — 2,000 tractors, 10 combine harvesters, 9,000 implements, mobile workshops — and the hardware looks impressive. The Renewed Hope Agricultural Mechanisation Programme began distribution in February 2026, eight months after its June 2025 launch, with 600 tractors released first under lease-to-own for Mechanisation Service Providers. Each unit is billed to serve 600 hectares annually, targeting over 1 million farmers. Fertiliser support scaled up too: CBN donated 2.15 million bags worth N100 billion in 2024, while government waived import duties for 150 days on rice, maize, wheat, and cowpeas to cool prices.

Yet at Station and Central markets, the reality bites. Food inflation leapt from 24.8% at inauguration to 40.9% by June 2024. It cooled to 16.06% by April 2026, but prices remain stubbornly high. A 50kg bag of rice that sold for N30,000 in May 2023 now goes for roughly N75,000. Production is slipping. Rice output fell 7% to 5.23 MMT in 2024/2025, the lowest since 2020. USDA projects 5.0 MMT for 2025/2026, with area down to 3.2 million hectares. Farmers from Kebbi to Benue cite input costs up four to five times, mills shutting down, plus floods and kidnappings. Imports filled the gap. USDA estimates 2.4 MMT of rice imports for 2024/2025, rising to 2.8 MMT in 2025/2026 — costing N1.18 to N1.26 trillion. A December 2025 policy review conceded the much-touted 1.1 MMT rice “surplus” was import-driven, not homegrown, and advised shutting import windows now that food inflation is below 14%.

Compare this to the Buhari years and the shift is clear. Tinubu’s approach is heavy on credit and mechanisation, lighter on direct market control. Agriculture’s budget rose from N228.4bn, or 1.05% in 2023, to N826.5bn, or 1.7% in 2025, with an extra N100bn National Agricultural Development Fund. Government injected a N250bn credit facility for smallholders and is pushing single-digit loans through the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit. Buhari banked on Anchor Borrowers’ Programme and border closures to force local rice. Tinubu opened emergency imports, then pivoted to equipment and finance. Both, however, hit the same brick walls: insecurity and FX volatility. Subsidy removal and naira devaluation doubled transport and agrochemical costs overnight. Late input delivery meant many smallholders heard policy on Radio Nigeria but never saw it on their farms.

The targets remain ambitious. The Renewed Hope Agenda aims to cultivate 65% of arable land in four years, up from 35%, and grow enough to export. The 2021–2025 National Development Plan targets 21 million rural jobs and food self-sufficiency. For mechanisation, the plan is 32,500 tractors in five years, including 10,000 John Deere units. Belarus tractors alone should open 550,000 hectares and add 2 MMT of staples. Rollout started Q1 2026, but by February only 600 units were released, against over 100,000 applicants for phase one. GPS tracking and training are mandatory, yet farmers report many tractors “gathering dust” in Abuja before deployment.

President Tinubu diagnosed correctly: Nigeria’s food system is a security risk. But three years in, waivers and tractor launches have not outrun banditry in Niger, FX shocks in Lagos ports, and a broken extension system in Kano. The seeds are in the ground. Harvest depends on whether a farmer in Birnin Gwari can plant without a military escort, sell in Dawanau without losses, and access a tractor without knowing a party chairman. Until then, the emergency remains what it is — a declaration, not yet a delivery.