Nigeria’s Poverty Setback: A Decade of Gains Lost, a Nation at a Crossroads

By Sam Agogo

The most disturbing aspect of Nigeria’s latest poverty report is not that poverty increased. It is that it increased after years of gradual progress.

For much of the last decade, indicators suggested that Nigeria was slowly, if unevenly, reducing multidimensional poverty. The country’s poverty index declined between 2013 and 2021, while the proportion of Nigerians living in multidimensional poverty also fell significantly. The progress was modest and fragile, especially in rural communities, but it was nevertheless movement in the right direction.

Today, that progress stands severely damaged.

According to the 2026 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) released by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), Nigeria recorded the largest increase in multidimensional poverty among the countries assessed. Between 2021 and 2024, an estimated 17.9 million additional Nigerians fell into poverty, pushing the total number of poor citizens from 72.2 million to 90.1 million.

Behind those statistics lies a painful reality. Millions of households that were already living on the margins have been pushed deeper into hardship. Families that could previously manage basic necessities now struggle to put food on the table. Parents face increasingly difficult choices between feeding their children, paying school fees or seeking medical treatment. For many Nigerians, survival has become more uncertain than at any point in recent memory.

The report should serve as a wake-up call, not merely because of the numbers involved, but because of what those numbers reveal about the state of the country.

Multidimensional poverty differs from conventional poverty measurements. It is not concerned solely with income. Instead, it examines whether people have access to basic conditions required for a dignified life, including nutrition, healthcare, education, sanitation, housing, electricity and clean drinking water.

This distinction is important because poverty in Nigeria has never been merely an issue of income. It is also about access, opportunity and human development.

A family may earn enough to survive on paper and still live without reliable healthcare. Children may attend school but receive poor-quality education. Communities may generate economic activity but remain cut off from essential infrastructure. The index captures those realities and provides a broader assessment of deprivation.

The report therefore tells us something that many Nigerians already know from daily experience. Economic hardship is not confined to one sector, one region or one social class. It is increasingly affecting every aspect of life.

The search for answers inevitably leads to the economy.

The period covered by the report coincides with one of the most turbulent economic phases in Nigeria’s recent history. In 2023, major policy changes reshaped the economic landscape. The removal of petrol subsidies and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market were widely regarded by economists as reforms that had become inevitable. Both policies targeted long-standing distortions that many experts believed were holding the economy back.

Yet economic logic does not eliminate social consequences.

What may be necessary from a fiscal perspective can still be devastating for households already struggling to survive.

The immediate aftermath of those reforms was sharp and painful. Fuel prices rose dramatically. Transportation costs surged. Production expenses increased. The value of the naira depreciated significantly, making imported goods more expensive. Inflation accelerated and food prices climbed at a pace rarely seen in recent years.

For ordinary citizens, the consequences were profound.

Income growth failed to keep pace with rising prices. Salaries lost value. Business owners faced higher operating costs. Household purchasing power weakened. The result was a rapid decline in living standards across large segments of the population.

This does not mean the reforms alone caused the poverty surge. To suggest so would be an oversimplification. Nigeria’s economic challenges did not begin in 2023, nor did they emerge under one administration.

The truth is more uncomfortable.

The country entered the reform period carrying decades of unresolved structural weaknesses.

An economy heavily dependent on oil revenues remains vulnerable to external shocks. Agricultural productivity remains lower than its potential. Industrial growth has struggled to absorb the country’s rapidly expanding workforce. Public infrastructure has lagged behind population growth. Healthcare and educational outcomes remain below where they ought to be for Africa’s largest economy.

When such underlying weaknesses collide with economic shocks, the consequences become severe.

The poverty figures reflect not only the impact of recent events but also the accumulated effects of years of unfinished reforms and persistent governance challenges.

Security represents another critical dimension of the crisis.

No discussion about poverty in Nigeria can ignore the impact of insecurity on livelihoods.

Across many parts of northern Nigeria, farming has become increasingly dangerous. Banditry, insurgency, kidnapping and communal violence have disrupted agricultural activities that sustain millions of households. Farmers have been displaced from their land. Entire communities have been forced to abandon productive activities. In some areas, cultivation has become a life-threatening exercise.

The economic consequences extend far beyond the farms themselves.

Agriculture remains one of the largest employers in Nigeria and a critical source of food supply. When farmers are unable to cultivate land, food production declines. Reduced supply inevitably translates into higher prices. Higher food prices disproportionately affect poor households because food accounts for a significant portion of their spending.

The result is a vicious cycle. Insecurity reduces food production. Lower production drives inflation. Rising prices deepen poverty. Deepening poverty further weakens social stability.

The fact that some of the states with the highest poverty rates are also among those most affected by insecurity should concern policymakers. Whether directly or indirectly, there is a clear connection between economic deprivation and the inability of citizens to pursue productive livelihoods safely.

Equally troubling is the employment challenge.

One of the most overlooked realities of poverty in Nigeria is that many poor people are not unemployed.

They work.

They trade.

They farm.

They drive commercial vehicles.

They run small businesses.

Yet they remain poor.

This reality exposes the limitations of measuring success through employment statistics alone. The critical issue is not simply whether people have jobs. It is whether those jobs provide sufficient income and security to support a decent standard of living.

A significant portion of Nigeria’s workforce operates in the informal sector where earnings are often low and unpredictable. Workers lack social protection. Productivity remains limited. Opportunities for advancement are scarce.

Consequently, millions of Nigerians remain trapped in what economists describe as working poverty, a condition where employment fails to provide an escape from deprivation.

The implications extend beyond economics.

Poverty has consequences for social cohesion, security, public health and political stability.

A society where millions struggle to meet basic needs becomes vulnerable to frustration and unrest. Young people who see few economic opportunities may become susceptible to criminal networks and extremist groups. Communities facing prolonged hardship often experience declining trust in public institutions.

Poverty is therefore not merely a humanitarian challenge. It is a national development challenge and a security challenge.

The regional disparities highlighted in the report further demonstrate the complexity of the problem.

While states such as Lagos continue to record relatively low poverty levels, others remain trapped in severe deprivation. States including Kebbi, Yobe and Sokoto continue to bear a disproportionate burden.

What is particularly notable is that the causes of poverty differ from one area to another.

In some states, nutrition and child mortality are major drivers. In others, lack of access to water, sanitation or electricity plays a more significant role. These differences reinforce an important lesson that policymakers often overlook: poverty is not a uniform phenomenon.

A strategy that succeeds in one state may fail in another.

Effective interventions must therefore be grounded in local realities rather than broad national assumptions.

The report also raises important questions about public spending.

Recent years have seen increases in revenues available to various levels of government, particularly following economic reforms and changes in public finance structures. The critical question is whether these resources are being translated into improved living conditions for citizens.

Revenue growth has little meaning if it does not lead to better schools, stronger healthcare systems, safer communities, improved infrastructure and greater economic opportunity.

Ultimately, governments are judged not by the amount of money they collect but by the outcomes they deliver.

This is where the poverty figures become particularly significant.

They represent one of the clearest indicators of whether economic growth is translating into human development.

Economic statistics often speak of percentages and projections. Poverty speaks of people’s lives.

It is the difference between discussing inflation in abstract terms and understanding the mother skipping meals so her children can eat.

It is the difference between celebrating economic growth figures and recognising the farmer who can no longer afford fertiliser.

It is the difference between discussing development plans and confronting the daily realities of citizens who see little evidence of development in their communities.

The lesson from the latest report is clear.

Nigeria cannot rely solely on macroeconomic reforms to solve poverty. Fiscal corrections, exchange-rate reforms and revenue improvements may be necessary, but they are insufficient on their own. Unless accompanied by stronger social protection, agricultural expansion, job creation, improved security and investments in human capital, their benefits may remain invisible to millions of citizens.

History shows that reversing poverty is possible. Many countries have demonstrated this. Nigeria itself has previously shown signs of progress.

The challenge now is not identifying the problem. The evidence is already before us.

The challenge is translating policies into measurable improvements in the lives of ordinary people.

*samuelagogo4one@yahoo.com

Nearly 18 million Nigerians entered multidimensional poverty within three years. That is not merely a statistic. It is a verdict on the severity of the challenges confronting the nation.

Whether the coming years bring recovery or further decline will depend largely on how effectively those challenges are addressed.

For millions of Nigerians, the real measure of success will not be found in government reports, economic forecasts or political speeches. It will be found in whether food becomes affordable, whether farms become safe, whether jobs become available and whether families regain confidence that tomorrow will be better than today.

*samuelagogo4one@yahoo.com